| Brainstorm | New from The Lancet (Online): [Correspondence] Delayed second dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine: innovation or misguided conjecture?: We strongly support vaccination against COVID-19 with the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 mRNA vaccine BNT162b2 when adhering to the 3-week dosing schedule that was found highly effective in the phase 3 randomised clinical [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/iMakHS | 00:39 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | 4-fold? interesting, not like 40-fold, but still definitely significant | 00:44 |
| dTal | "The idea of protecting more of the population by delaying the second dose is predicated on a joint statement by the JCVI and Public Health England (PHE) that a first dose provides 89–90% efficacy (protection). This is contrary to the clinical data or efficacy generated from real-life clinical observational data from Israel" | 00:48 |
| dTal | And yet, the very studies they cite show up to 86% depending on age group | 00:48 |
| dTal | well, one of them does | 00:49 |
| dTal | the other says 50% | 00:49 |
| dTal | but it's not exactly straightforward to say "this assertion is unsupported", is it? | 00:49 |
| LjL | dTal, 89-90% seems unsupported, in the sense that if you choose a 6-day window retrospectively, that seems a bit much... but 85-86% seems justified. the 50% is when you include every case after inoculation, but i would say it's uncontroversial that you need to wait a dozen of days for the antibodies to kick in | 01:02 |
| LjL | then making assertions about what happens after a time where, in the trial, the second shot was given, and assuming things work the same just by not giving it would be even more unsupported :\ | 01:03 |
| LjL | i don't know, all sides of this seem more political than scientific | 01:03 |
| LjL | i'm allowed to be political though because i'm an ignoramus | 01:04 |
| LjL | oh and his is also political but just to make up for Brainstorm's prior "Israel is helping Palestinians" post | 01:16 |
| LjL | <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israel destroys EU aid to Palestinian village community → https://is.gd/twWx3P | 01:16 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Early rate reductions of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 in BNT162b2 vaccine recipients (81 votes) | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00448-7/fulltext | https://redd.it/ln8m02 | 01:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Trudeau warns of a dangerous third wave as Canada copes with a vaccine 'drought' → https://is.gd/X9JTby | 02:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +3051 cases (now 841902), +74 deaths (now 21572) since 22 hours ago — Netherlands: +2330 cases (now 1.1 million) since 22 hours ago — France: +5636 cases (now 3.6 million) since 22 hours ago | 02:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Care home residents in England to be allowed one regular visitor → https://is.gd/y1D2BW | 02:40 |
| ryouma | in the us, you need to see your doctor each year for prescriptions and so on or something like that. does anybody know whehter this applies given covid? | 02:55 |
| Brainstorm | ryouma: At 2021-02-15 19:25:32 UTC, LjL told you: New from Medical Xpress: Existing heart failure drug may treat potential COVID-19 long-hauler symptom: In a new study out of University of California San Diego School of Medicine, researchers found a drug used for heart failure improves symptoms associated with postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, otherwise known as POTS. This complex, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Zfrd5j | 02:55 |
| ryouma | thanks.i have been called potsy but all is known is htat i have severe orthostatic intolderance an dit is not known what type it is. pots is one type. it is good to see long covid studies. | 02:58 |
| de-facto | Dangit i am very worried about Germany not taking the VOCs serious enough, everyone is speaking about lifting restrictions, R ~ 0.9 hence the new variants already in massive exponential reproduction. | 03:06 |
| de-facto | They want to open schools and businesses | 03:06 |
| de-facto | instead we would need a lockdown that is much more strict than ever done before | 03:07 |
| de-facto | our little town here took back nightly curfews, 4 days later (!) incidence already began to rise again, just 4 days. | 03:08 |
| de-facto | people are just not understanding this at all, and i am not understanding people anymore :( | 03:09 |
| de-facto | if we would want to contain and decrease the B.1.1.7 variant with R ~ 0.7 (as we did in the most strict times of the the first wave lockdown) we would need to achieve a 140% more strict lockdown this time hence something equivalent to R ~ 0.7/1.4 = 0.5 with the classic variant. thats something we never managed to achieve yet in Germany at all. | 03:14 |
| de-facto | but people are speaking about the opposite, opening and lifting restrictions, increasing contacts | 03:15 |
| de-facto | the day the nightly curfew was lifted people began to visit friends again and celebrating the end of the curfew while drinking etc | 03:16 |
| de-facto | why on earth are people SO stupid?! | 03:16 |
| de-facto | i really feel like i want to kill someone with my bare hands :(( | 03:16 |
| de-facto | We already have 1 in 5 detected cases with the B.1.1.7 variant in Germany | 03:25 |
| ryouma | idk about variants befause not following. too sick. what is the summary? will we get more and more waves? az was worst in world probsably but is starting to drop. but your words sound like it will be another wave right again just liek before. and in az it was never waves to begin with just an increasing set of larger swells. | 03:25 |
| ryouma | az is a state not a copmpany or vaccine | 03:26 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +12056 cases (now 4.1 million) since 23 hours ago | 03:27 |
| de-facto | we already have a 3rd wave in Germany, yet most people are too stupid to even realize it | 03:28 |
| de-facto | its in massive exponential reproduction already for weeks | 03:28 |
| de-facto | every day wasted not increasing lockdown measures will be exponentially more expensive in the future to resume to the same incidence | 03:30 |
| LjL | ryouma, i thought it might be relevant to you, wasn't sure, anyway long covid interests you | 03:33 |
| ryouma | ot ,mogt be i am too sick to follow forums and so on but yes lc intersts me. it still looks like it is going to be a really serious problem. | 03:35 |
| LjL | de-facto, and you also have people, including scientists, being like, we'll soon see the seasonal effect, and things will get better. uhm. look at Argentina. things *are* getting better there, but it's the northern hemisphere equivalent of August there. not early spring, full-on summer. | 03:36 |
| LjL | maybe early spring will help too, i don't know, but it seems a bit of misplaced optimism | 03:37 |
| de-facto | and people think they can compare Germany with UK, yet background prevalence (from recoveries) are much different and of course play a role since B.1.1.7 does not make immune escapes (yet) | 03:37 |
| de-facto | e.g. UK can achieve much lower reproduction because the portion of immune people is much higher already than in Germany (not to start speaking about vaccinations even) | 03:37 |
| de-facto | the newest report from RKI about the new VOC screening shows very worrying numbers https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-02-17.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 03:42 |
| de-facto | a time series shows an exponential take over by B.1.1.7 in {week, percent_b117} = {{2, 2}, {3, 3.7}, {4, 4.8}, {5, 10.1}, {6, 22.8}} | 03:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +571 deaths (now 68118) since 23 hours ago | 03:45 |
| de-facto | using a NonLinearModelFit on that gives N_b117(t)/N(t) = 2% * 1.55775 ^ (7 * (week - 2) / 5.2) | 03:46 |
| de-facto | hence currently we have for the Reproduction R_b117 / R_classic = 1.55775 or the B.1.1.7 variant having 155% the reproduction of the classic variants | 03:47 |
| de-facto | taking the reproduction R ~ 0.85 from the current lockdown (some time ago when the new variant was still very small contributions) the new variant B.1.1.7 is currently in *massive* exponential reproduction with R ~ 0.85 * 155% = 1.32 | 03:50 |
| de-facto | that means the daily new infections by B.1.1.7 in Germany currently double each t = 5.2d * ln(2)/ln(1.32) ~ 13d | 03:51 |
| de-facto | why is anyone speaking about taking back restrictions?! i do not understand this. | 03:52 |
| de-facto | basically we would need to at least half the number of contacts, 53% contact rate for achieving R~0.7 for B.1.1.7 | 03:54 |
| de-facto | instead people act like we are close to the pandemic being over, this is beyond stupid. | 03:55 |
| de-facto | the same mistake over and over again for a fucking year. this is so frustrating i cant even find words anymore | 03:57 |
| de-facto | but this time we really have to deal with a different pathogen, 155% is no joke. | 03:58 |
| de-facto | i dont even know how we could contain this, we never have achieved something like this in Germany at all. | 03:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New Tokyo Olympics chief acknowledges 'great public concern' over Covid → https://is.gd/KCxDm3 | 04:05 |
| de-facto | ignoring the first two weeks of 2021 (the low percentages) the ratio even may go as high as 180% | 04:07 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/qp9lMRs https://i.imgur.com/jQrqZKL.png | 04:18 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: VOC B.1.1.7 vs classic SARS-CoV-2 - Album on Imgur | 04:18 |
| de-facto | looking at the last three datapoints week 4,,180% seems to fit even better actually | 04:19 |
| de-facto | looking at the last three datapoints week 4,5,6 the 180% seems to fit even better | 04:20 |
| de-facto | that would mean Rb117 ~ Rclassic * 1.8 ~ 0.85 * 1.8 = 1.53 hence doubling each 5.2 * ln(2)/ln(1.53) = 8.47 days | 04:22 |
| de-facto | and the worst thing is we *know* about what is going to happen, we know it exactly and still dont do enough about it | 04:23 |
| de-facto | i think in early March the new VOC B.1.1.7 will start to contribute the majority (more than 50%) of new infections in Germany. | 04:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK government broke the law by failing to disclose PPE contracts, court rules → https://is.gd/X7awWc | 04:29 |
| de-facto | a NonLinearModelFit for only the last 3 datapoints gives exactly 178.149% hence ~180% seems to be quite accurate unfortunately | 04:33 |
| de-facto | one unknown is there: if they suspect a new variant, they might try to trace it better, hence to find more of the secondary infections when they suspect B.1.1.7, so there may be some kind of unknown bias involved | 04:34 |
| de-facto | hard to predict how much that contributes, but i think not too much since sequencing will take a week or such | 04:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New Zealand: +2 cases (now 2350) since 21 hours ago | 04:41 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/IqCX1e7 https://i.imgur.com/dcwfoFF.png | 04:43 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: SARS-CoV-2 COV B.1.1.7 number of samples per region on 2021-02-17 - Album on Imgur | 04:43 |
| de-facto | https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/ | 04:44 |
| de-facto | https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.1.7.html | 04:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Iran to launch mass production of Russian Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine → https://is.gd/A688WS | 04:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Joe Biden heads to Pfizer plant as weather causes vaccine delays → https://is.gd/nljyLw | 05:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Coronavirus 2021: Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine Can Now Be Stored On Regular Pharmaceutical Freezers Too → https://is.gd/YvrMMe | 06:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: G-7 vows ‘equitable’ world vaccine access, but details scant → https://is.gd/O8locz | 06:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +3437 cases (now 749739), +38 deaths (now 21859) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +8141 cases (now 2.4 million) since 17 hours ago | 06:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Cold, lack of water overwhelm Texas hospitals more than COVID-19 did → https://is.gd/HkNcU2 | 07:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Argentine health minister resigns amid vaccine scandal → https://is.gd/lFJmUo | 07:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Pfizer promises to double supply as Biden pushes for quicker vaccine rollout → https://is.gd/g2Mp6s | 08:11 |
| pwr22 | https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-nhs-airborne-masks-boris-johnson-b1804194.html | 08:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | February 20, 2021: The World Health Organization maintains up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. You can find answers to frequently asked questions about Covid-19 and vaccines in our FAQ . → https://is.gd/IzWpzN | 09:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pfizer revises ultra-cold storage guidance for Covid-19 jab, says vaccine is stable at refrigerator temperatures → https://is.gd/OIzw7r | 09:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Russia approves its third COVID-19 vaccine, CoviVac → https://is.gd/yYJ3U7 | 10:02 |
| CoronaBot | /r/coronavirus: Pfizer to double weekly U.S. output of vaccine in next few weeks (10028 votes) | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-pfizer-doses/pfizer-to-double-weekly-u-s-output-of-vaccine-in-next-few-weeks-ceo-idUSKBN2AJ2F8 | https://redd.it/lnsnc2 | 10:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Iowa, United States: +27302 cases (now 358806), +15 deaths (now 5336) since a day ago — Vinnytsia Oblast, Ukraine: +581 cases (now 31775), +9 deaths (now 605) since a day ago — Lombardy, Italy: +3724 cases (now 573747), +33 deaths (now 27971) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +6022 cases (now 4.1 million), +216 deaths (now 120034) since 15 hours ago | 10:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: A Bicycle. A Trip. Or Just Pants: The Things We Buy When Pining For Normal Times: Even the most mundane purchases are becoming objects of hope as we crave the routines and experiences of daily life in this period of isolation. → https://is.gd/4b4sa7 | 11:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +9734 cases (now 2.4 million) since 22 hours ago | 11:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Saint Lucia: +240 cases (now 2860), +3 deaths (now 28) since 2 days ago | 12:14 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Predictors of hospital discharge and mortality in patients with diabetes and COVID-19: updated results from the nationwide CORONADO study (80 votes) | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00125-020-05351-w | https://redd.it/lnxzo2 | 12:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronavirusUK: 95 per cent of UK over 70s given first dose - 1% declined vaccination - New Scientist → https://is.gd/0bOXyD | 12:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19: UK should send vaccines to poorer nations now - WTO chief → https://is.gd/4QY7TZ | 13:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: As coronavirus variants spread, the US struggles to keep up → https://is.gd/XrjL2n | 14:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: California Will Begin Setting Aside 10% Of COVID-19 Vaccine Doses For Teachers: Gov. Gavin Newsom announced the plan on Friday as part of an effort to accelerate in-person learning across the state. → https://is.gd/dNvGKo | 16:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: According to CDC, Michigan has 10% of nationwide cases of B.1.1.7 COVID variant → https://is.gd/MPfuZc | 16:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: 'A tragic case:' Organ transplant patient dies after receiving Covid-infected lungs → https://is.gd/SBQS2p | 16:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Controls On Vaccine Exports 'Hold Back' Pandemic Recovery, Warns Incoming WTO Head: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is set to lead the World Trade Organization. She talked with NPR about the WTO's role in improving access to vaccines and says there's "no doubt" that the WTO needs reforms. → https://is.gd/yAgyNA | 17:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 721: COVID-19 clinical update #50 with Dr. Daniel Griffin: In COVID-19 clinical update #50, Daniel Griffin discusses CDC guidance on school opening, decreased viral load after vaccination, randomized clinical trial of vitamin D treatment, a study of zinc plus vitamin C, anticoagulation therapy effect on mortality, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/agwDXA | 17:54 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +14914 cases (now 2.8 million), +251 deaths (now 95486) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +10970 cases (now 4.1 million), +474 deaths (now 120292) since 23 hours ago — Antigua and Barb.: +50 cases (now 598), +1 deaths (now 11) since a day ago — Netherlands: +4639 cases (now 1.1 million), +58 deaths (now 15220) since 23 hours ago | 18:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: New Zealand says COVID vaccinations 'small step in long journey': New Zealand launched its COVID-19 vaccination programme Saturday but warned the initial rollout was only a small step in the long battle against the pandemic. → https://is.gd/HySyE7 | 18:18 |
| Jigsy | So there's news about Russians being infected with Bird Flu now. | 18:43 |
| de-facto | I dont get it why they always say first "there is no evidence for human to human transmission" | 19:07 |
| de-facto | if it can infect humans and its a respiratory disease, why would one *not* assume it can be transmitted between humans ? | 19:08 |
| broheim[m] | air pollution causes respiratory disease | 19:11 |
| de-facto | yeah and smoking, but also viruses and bacteria | 19:12 |
| broheim[m] | would you like some fun facts | 19:13 |
| de-facto | in the case of COVID its the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen and in the case of above mentioned avian influenza its the H5N8 virus | 19:14 |
| * broheim[m] uploaded an image: 3454764543545.png (450KiB) < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/uUkOLOjKFdfBHAtpPATRIELI/3454764543545.png > | 19:14 | |
| broheim[m] | what do you see | 19:14 |
| de-facto | a whole bunch of logos photoshopped together? | 19:15 |
| broheim[m] | lets try again | 19:15 |
| * broheim[m] uploaded an image: 345457345435345345435.png (419KiB) < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/cynHZzVIfrUOXjKaGkahlgLB/345457345435345345435.png > | 19:15 | |
| broheim[m] | what do you see | 19:15 |
| de-facto | a screenshot with underlined passages of text? | 19:17 |
| broheim[m] | very good. | 19:17 |
| * broheim[m] uploaded an image: 345457645455345.png (166KiB) < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/KHoIxTpfQHaVQxqOjDRmVHLV/345457645455345.png > | 19:17 | |
| broheim[m] | and what does it mean? | 19:17 |
| de-facto | you know they are trying to find out as much as possible about the properties of new pathogen like SARS-CoV-2, its not like someone knows everything in advance | 19:18 |
| LjL | broheim[m]: this kind of games isnt welcome here | 19:18 |
| de-facto | so if they formulate carefully and correct imho it increases the trust in their legitimate effort to inform the public transparently | 19:18 |
| * broheim[m] uploaded an image: 34565345536345345.png (103KiB) < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/HaQZeyMYHpllsFzFpNOnMdFM/34565345536345345.png > | 19:18 | |
| broheim[m] | LjL: what "game" are you referencing? I'm merely sharing official government documentation | 19:19 |
| LjL | broheim[m]: don't ask him "what he's seeing". If you have some particular thesis, state it. | 19:19 |
| de-facto | what you underline there is confirming that they have a proper approach and dont intend to lie to the public but instead their best to transport the current knowledge according to what they have found out so far | 19:20 |
| broheim[m] | I prefer the reader come to their own conclusions using the available facts, but thanks for the input. | 19:20 |
| LjL | It's not "input". It's a request. | 19:20 |
| broheim[m] | cool. | 19:21 |
| * broheim[m] uploaded an image: EnrD9q5WMAwnYfI.jpg (65KiB) < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/wZNYCidSWTzEbRzVLvtiNghH/EnrD9q5WMAwnYfI.jpg > | 19:21 | |
| broheim[m] | in your opinion what is the number one driver of "covid" | 19:21 |
| de-facto | the failure to prevent infection with SARS-CoV-2 pathogen | 19:22 |
| broheim[m] | and how does one prevent infection? | 19:23 |
| ubLIX | state your thesis, broheim[m], or begone | 19:23 |
| broheim[m] | probably kick me, I don;'t have time for nazi mods | 19:24 |
| de-facto | since every transmission requires the contact between two humans, reducing contact rates of course | 19:24 |
| ubLIX | suit yourself | 19:24 |
| de-facto | that was weird. | 19:24 |
| LjL | not particularly out of the ordinary way this type of people acts | 19:24 |
| LjL | it would be nice if my Matrix client had the decency to load | 19:25 |
| de-facto | he did not want to state thesis because then he could go on with posting his weird screenshots | 19:25 |
| LjL | i was kinda interested in the latest one though | 19:33 |
| LjL | if someone asked me, i'd say based on that screenshot, "seasonality" | 19:33 |
| LjL | but only based on that screenshot, i have no strong opinion on seasonality otherwise | 19:34 |
| LjL | and i don't know that's what he was going for (even if it was, what was the point of all the previous things?) | 19:34 |
| ubLIX | looked to me like it was heading towards conspiracy theory with military research involvement | 19:37 |
| * DrImmunology[m] sent a long message: < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/koaBVYDYoWQVTyxfarqdzznv/message.txt > | 19:37 | |
| * DrImmunology[m] sent a long message: < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/dzmwNIBivCSPeQKRJvEFfNOj/message.txt > | 19:37 | |
| ubLIX | ok maybe not | 19:38 |
| LjL | ubLIX, the initial screenshot looked like that, but then i dunno | 19:38 |
| LjL | DrImmunology[m], because this room is primarily an IRC channel, please send your messages as individual lines when feasible. "long messages" get "translated" here into awkward URLs to click on | 19:39 |
| DrImmunology[m] | going back to the group which experienced the largest excess mortality, 25-44, according to the journal of american medical association, only 32% of those excess deaths were covid related, which means out of the group which experienced the most death, 68% of deaths are not attributed directly to covid, but merely the damaging effects of NPIs which have been shown to not work. | 19:40 |
| DrImmunology[m] | source: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2774445 | 19:41 |
| DrImmunology[m] | and https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm | 19:41 |
| LjL | DrImmunology[m], i'd be quite surprised that the 25-44 age group be the group that experienced the most excess deaths, unless you mean percentage-wise perhaps | 19:43 |
| DrImmunology[m] | "The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44" https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm | 19:44 |
| DrImmunology[m] | sure old people died, but they died in about the same numbers as previous years, 25-44 was the one anomalous age group | 19:44 |
| DrImmunology[m] | a harvard study was done to find which factors most contributed to health in old age. the number one factor was found to be "social integration". so forcing people into isolation is having the exact opposite effect than the one being claimed, which is to 'improve health outcomes' | 19:46 |
| LjL | well, i'm not very familiar with the US numbers, but that definitely doesn't match the pattern of excess deaths i've seen in Europe and my country in particular | 19:47 |
| LjL | also i note that JAMA study does say "Only 38% of all-cause excess deaths in adults aged 25 to 44 years recorded during the pandemic were attributed directly to COVID-19. Although the remaining excess deaths are unexplained, inadequate testing in this otherwise healthy demographic likely contributed. These results suggest that COVID-19–related mortality may have been underdetected in this population." | 19:48 |
| DrImmunology[m] | "Although the remaining excess deaths are unexplained" | 19:49 |
| DrImmunology[m] | ..not exactly. | 19:49 |
| DrImmunology[m] | I looked at the data and the massive excess deaths were from suicides. however the cdc took it upon themselves to label these deaths as 'unintentional drug overdoses' so as not to scare the public, or any researcher who is looking for damaging information. | 19:49 |
| DrImmunology[m] | "a concerning acceleration of the increase in drug overdose deaths, with the largest increase recorded from March 2020 to May 2020,coinciding with the implementation of widespread mitigation measures for the COVID-19 pandemic" https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2020/han00438.asp | 19:51 |
| ubLIX | "and the massive excess deaths were from suicides" - your citations so far don't rule out this line but they don't exactly argue for it either | 19:52 |
| DrImmunology[m] | the CDC has not provided data by age and cause of death for drug overdoses or other non-natural causes | 19:53 |
| * DrImmunology[m] uploaded an image: EuAMTeDXUAAbJJo.jpg (160KiB) < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/FKwAwKPJgQEVMWWiVdzSRHJL/EuAMTeDXUAAbJJo.jpg > | 19:53 | |
| * DrImmunology[m] sent a long message: < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/pcDbOQrqvvlqUcZNNJoVSplM/message.txt > | 19:55 | |
| LjL | DrImmunology[m], when i look at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm and select "Weekly Number of Deaths by Age", what i see is a tremendous amount of excess deaths during COVID spikes in groups >45, while the 25-44 group has mostly a uniformly, not very markedly though admittedly visibly, above-normal amount of deaths. | 19:55 |
| * DrImmunology[m] uploaded an image: EsEtpk_XUAIqMXX.png (89KiB) < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/xMCdOFBaKKfOuNLiEsnGQvnS/EsEtpk_XUAIqMXX.png > | 19:56 | |
| LjL | since i'm not familiar with the many studies and things you're linking, can you explain for me how that is consistent with your statement that 25-44 had the most excess deaths, percentage-wise or otherwise? | 19:56 |
| DrImmunology[m] | they keep coding drug overdoses as 'with covid' for some reason. we know in the CARES ACT there is a 15% premium added on medicare repayments when patients are coded as covids | 19:57 |
| LjL | whatever you do though, please don't link a screenshotted table of as many as 11 deaths to make any point :( | 19:57 |
| LjL | if they are coded as "with COVID" it means there was a positive PCR | 19:58 |
| DrImmunology[m] | well the PCR test has been invalidated, according to https://cormandrostenreview.com/report/ | 19:58 |
| DrImmunology[m] | I don't believe they ever responded. https://retractionwatch.com/2020/12/07/public-health-journal-seeking-further-expert-advice-on-january-paper-about-covid-19-pcr-testing-by-high-profile-virologist/ | 19:59 |
| LjL | also is it possible that the drug dosage that ends up leading to death is simply lowered if you have COVID, because it's not exactly like COVID is something that makes your chances of surviving any adverse event better? | 19:59 |
| DrImmunology[m] | I wonder if people are aware the entire testing thing is based on non peer-reviewed paper? https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000045 | 19:59 |
| DrImmunology[m] | not very scientific. | 19:59 |
| LjL | uhm, PCR has not been "invalidated" just because some group of self-proclaimed "reviewers" decided so and Retraction Watch wrote about it since it's kind of what it does :\ | 20:02 |
| LjL | PCR is not based on one paper | 20:02 |
| LjL | PCR has a long history of use and it can be applied to anything that has DNA or RNA pretty much. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_transcription_polymerase_chain_reaction#History i'm pretty damned sure there are many papers validating the method from 1977 to now | 20:03 |
| LjL | of course they were not all about SARS-COV-2, but that's just because it's a well-established method. | 20:03 |
| UserC | Is covid as bad as the news make it out to be? | 20:08 |
| LjL | that's a very underspecified question | 20:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pfizer vaccine reduces mortality by 98.9% (14 days after second dose) → https://is.gd/anORoq | 20:10 |
| DrImmunology[m] | PCR is a technique to amplify unspecified pieces of genetic material, and in that regard it does great. | 20:10 |
| DrImmunology[m] | it was never meant to be used in clinical diagnosis though. I'm specifically refering to the eurosurveillance paper which is the basis for the RT-PCR sars-cov-2 testing, and how there are many flaws which you can read about, and that it is not peer-reviewed. | 20:10 |
| UserC | Well from the rection of countries (lock downs and such) and looks like a a threat to humanity or something | 20:10 |
| UserC | But looking at the all cause mortality for 2020 in most countries there doesn't seem to be any segnificant excess | 20:11 |
| DrImmunology[m] | The CCP’s global lockdowns also appear inspired in part on the work of Stanley Milgram, whose experiments proved the willingness of most individuals to commit human rights abuses when instructed to do so by scientific authorities. | 20:11 |
| DrImmunology[m] | Lockdowns further appear to be a “new concept weapon” as theorized by China’s most influential modern strategist, Qiao Liang, in his magnum opus: “Unrestricted Warfare” | 20:11 |
| DrImmunology[m] | No person ever publicly conceived of “lockdown” before that date. Businessman Ren Zhiqiang was sentenced to 18 years for a letter requesting Xi’s instructions be made public. | 20:11 |
| * DrImmunology[m] sent a long message: < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/cJcEDIOUPYLMOePtJhwsHxGQ/message.txt > | 20:12 | |
| LjL | UserC, which excess mortality data are you looking at? i have some in the resource page in the channel topic, and i *most definitely* saw excesses | 20:12 |
| DrImmunology[m] | and now governor cuomo is being investigated by the FBI for 'Moving still-sick patients to nursing homes' ..they will find no wrongdoing. | 20:12 |
| LjL | DrImmunology[m] here right now is arguing that in the US and in the age range 25-45 most of those excesses are actually attributed to drug overdose, but that wasn't my impression from other data. regardless, there's definitely many excess deaths. | 20:12 |
| DrImmunology[m] | Lockdowns were, of course, never really meant to end. First it’s flatten the curve, then the second wave, then “control the virus,” then wait for a vaccine, then the “new normal.” All clever bait-and-switch to gradually strip the world of human rights. | 20:13 |
| DrImmunology[m] | Forcing professionals into their homes had important psychological effects. First, it isolated professionals from their neighbors, initiating the loss of empathy required for them to support crimes against humanity in the form of “lockdowns.” | 20:13 |
| DrImmunology[m] | Forcing professionals into their homes forced them into the CCP’s controlled information environment. Isolating intelligent people in the digital realm allowed the CCP to control public opinion through its army of bots and stakes in most media sources. | 20:13 |
| DrImmunology[m] | who is this army of bots? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent_Party is one | 20:14 |
| LjL | you're kinda making a monologue that doesn't really give me or anyone way or time to try to verify or counter what you're saying, and sometimes citing sometimes just claiming... | 20:16 |
| DrImmunology[m] | the new mutations are merely a cover story to provide plausible deniability for the massive wave of immune deprived (due to lockdowns) folks who are going out to inject highly experimental vaccines directly into their bloodstreams which has as a possible side effect, death. | 20:16 |
| * DrImmunology[m] uploaded an image: EunmF_EXcAIf29V.jpg (102KiB) < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/rErWiWZLuRBnVgWKqqNUlQHJ/EunmF_EXcAIf29V.jpg > | 20:16 | |
| DrImmunology[m] | notice we need to strip more of your human rights? or else everybody dies? | 20:16 |
| DrImmunology[m] | https://www.medalerts.org/vaersdb/findfield.php?EVENTS=on&PAGENO=1&PERPAGE=10&ESORT=&REVERSESORT=&VAX=(COVID19)&VAXTYPES=(COVID-19)&DIED=Yes | 20:17 |
| DrImmunology[m] | fun website to keep track of only a portion of the deaths caused by pfizer/moderna | 20:17 |
| DrImmunology[m] | if you are curious why the vaccine adverse event reporting system is severely under reporting events, you can read this great report. https://truthsnitch.com/2017/10/24/cdc-silence-million-dollar-harvard-project-charged-upgrading-vaccine-safety-surveillance-system/ | 20:18 |
| DrImmunology[m] | lockdowns kill, plus they don't do anything to influence the spread. https://ktla.com/news/california/san-francisco-files-suit-to-reopen-schools-citing-high-suicide-rates-among-children/ | 20:19 |
| LjL | DrImmunology[m], you can't make a monologue the way i described here and swamp the channel in unanswerable amount of conspiracy theorizing. it disrupts the channel completely. so you have been muted | 20:23 |
| dylanoconnor[m] | we are all aware that the vaccines have not been properly tested (they would never get approved), the only way to make it happen was with 'emergency use authorization' ..but this is only allowed if no other alternatives exists. there are alternatives which worked, but the cdc intentionally labelled them as ineffective, essentially denying the public life saving early prevention therapies, in order to protect the | 20:37 |
| dylanoconnor[m] | future profits of having these patented drugs added to the schedule. | 20:37 |
| dylanoconnor[m] | "vaccines may worsen COVID-19 disease via antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). This risk is sufficiently obscured in clinical trial protocols and consent forms" | 20:37 |
| dylanoconnor[m] | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33113270/ | 20:37 |
| dylanoconnor[m] | "vaccines not only failed to protect from homologous or heterologous challenge, but resulted in enhanced immunopathology with eosinophilic infiltrates within the lungs of SARS-CoV-challenged mice" | 20:37 |
| dylanoconnor[m] | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17194199/ | 20:37 |
| dylanoconnor[m] | "pathogenic priming may be occurring involving autoimmunity against multiple proteins following CoV vaccination" | 20:38 |
| dylanoconnor[m] | "Pathogenic priming likely contributes to serious and critical illness and mortality" | 20:38 |
| dylanoconnor[m] | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7142689/ | 20:38 |
| de-facto | every transmission of a pathogen from human to human (hence almost all of the infections for current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic) require 1) human-to-human contact (obviously) 2) an setting in which transmission is possible (hence not prevented by masks or other PPE) 3) one of the human having an ongoing infection, the other being susceptible to the pathogen. | 20:40 |
| de-facto | since all the problems we currently are facing with the pandemic start with the infection preventing this cause of our challenge makes the most sense | 20:40 |
| de-facto | Longterm solution would be to prevent transmission by removing the portion of susceptible by immunizing them via vaccines | 20:41 |
| de-facto | Midterm mitigation is the use of NPIs such as masks or social distancing to prevent transmission on any contact between potentially infected and (still) susceptible to the pathogen | 20:41 |
| de-facto | Shortterm (emergency) measure is to strictly reduce contact rates themselves, a contact not taking place also cant transmit the pathogen. This is the symptom of a failure of the other strategies | 20:41 |
| de-facto | All this begins to make sense in the light of Reproduction = ContactRate * Transmissibility * DurationOfInfectiousness | 20:41 |
| * freedomfriess[m] sent a long message: < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/TmvUSgMUkGJPAAVPfcuIFWyX/message.txt > | 20:43 | |
| de-facto | so what does bring new infections down in the emergency of exponential rise of incidence? Coincidentally when they introduce a lockdown and reduce contact rate the rate of new infections reacts after approximately 2-3 weeks when the effect of containment measures saturates and a new reproduction rate estabished more or less stable | 20:44 |
| de-facto | and in terms of vaccines, it makes sense to look at Israel and how well it protects them from getting COVID, fortunately it seems to protect much better than we hoped for several months ago | 20:46 |
| spankmedaddyy[m] | "The soul will be made non-existent with the aid of a drug. Taking a ‘sound point of view’, people will invent a vaccine to influence the organism as early as possible, preferably as soon as it is born, so that this human body never even gets the idea that there is a soul and a spirit." from Fall of the Spirits of Darkness (1917) - Rudolf Steiner | 20:47 |
| spankmedaddyy[m] | https://wn.rsarchive.org/Lectures/GA177/English/RSP1993/FalDar_index.html | 20:47 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +5679 cases (now 2.4 million) since 21 hours ago — Canada: +1983 cases (now 843186), +37 deaths (now 21597) since 21 hours ago | 20:50 |
| de-facto | also NPIs and PPE seems to work, otherwise we would not have the ability to bring down incidence in case of surges in new infections and also to protect medical workers during their job in an contaminated environment such as the ICU rooms with COVID patients | 20:50 |
| LjL-Matrix | de-facto: to be fair, though, I was wondering a few minutes ago, before I needed to look into Matrix bans... I don't know about the thing he posted saying lockdowns don't work (I didn't check it out), but *do* we have decent evidence, beyond our own sense of "hmm, it started going down after two weeks", that western-style NPIs are effective? Like, I believe the "best" study I have in the resources page in this respect | 20:52 |
| LjL-Matrix | is the one that barely find any correlation with anything, except schools and public gatherings, which still have a modest correlation. Do we have anything more convincing than that? | 20:52 |
| harderbby[m] | if you look into "long covid" you will find the reason people feel like shit is because of presence of inflammatory cytokines. do you know what causes that to appear? | 20:53 |
| harderbby[m] | if you look into what kills people due to covid, it's due to cytokine storms, do you know what causes that? | 20:53 |
| harderbby[m] | modest increase in the intracellular level of IL-1β, a major pro-inflammatory cytokine | 20:53 |
| harderbby[m] | result suggests that 61.2-GHz exposure could activate keratinocytes | 20:53 |
| harderbby[m] | https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-journal-of-microwave-and-wireless-technologies/article/millimeterwave-interactions-with-the-human-body-state-of-knowledge-and-recent-advances/44B43B3E7CA335E5E1CD407BE2A1EA29 | 20:53 |
| harderbby[m] | "studies have reported that exposure to EMF results in oxidative stress" | 20:53 |
| harderbby[m] | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30023251/ | 20:53 |
| harderbby[m] | Oxidative stress as an initiator of cytokine release and cell damage | 20:53 |
| harderbby[m] | https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/22/44_suppl/4s | 20:53 |
| harderbby[m] | "cytokine storm is similar to a condition called cytokine release" | 20:53 |
| harderbby[m] | "No single definition of cytokine storm or the cytokine release syndrome is widely accepted" | 20:53 |
| harderbby[m] | https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra2026131 | 20:53 |
| harderbby[m] | emf influences the voltage gated calcium channels to cause cytokine production and cytotoxicity. | 20:53 |
| harderbby[m] | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3780531/ | 20:53 |
| de-facto | LjL well i dont assume lockdowns are done in the most effective way (unfortunately) hence they have also the most (unwanted) side effects. I consider the necessity of a lockdown as failure to implement the alternative of more targeted containment | 20:56 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Convocazione del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 2 ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/convocazione-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-2/16250 ) | 20:57 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Consiglio dei Ministri n. 2 ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/consiglio-dei-ministri-n-2/16251 ) | 20:57 | |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Severe clinical relapse in an immunocompromised host with persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection (80 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41375-021-01175-8 | https://redd.it/lo9w6c | 20:57 |
| * klausschwab[m] uploaded an image: lool.jpg (74KiB) < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/QDiDDrjECkmGHTLwVeRfnuVy/lool.jpg > | 20:58 | |
| de-facto | we do have studies that correlate changes NPIs to certain reactions in reproduction rates of the pathogen, but unfortunately not enough (after one year) to contain it without lockdowns (and yes ofc they do work as we see by how they successfully bring down incidence for a high price) | 20:58 |
| acoupstique | Foods like wild blueberries, turmeric, green tea, celery, beets, and green leafy vegetables help your body fight the possible onset of cytokine storm.... | 20:59 |
| de-facto | yes i agree food can be very helpful, also in prevention | 21:00 |
| acoupstique | Food= Medicine! | 21:01 |
| de-facto | but i would not go as far as stating it would be the solution, it can be part of it (that people invest more into their health status) | 21:01 |
| * iroboot[m] uploaded an image: 34545673454545.png (397KiB) < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/iJmhWQrbVOMahCVJSSrVhOjC/34545673454545.png > | 21:01 | |
| iroboot[m] | NPIs do nothing, stop lying. | 21:01 |
| de-facto | what brings down incidence when a peak in new infections is addressed by a lockdown? | 21:02 |
| acoupstique | Large families living in one room | 21:03 |
| LjL-Matrix | that brings it up | 21:03 |
| acoupstique | That’s not it...nevermind! | 21:04 |
| de-facto | there is the effect of overdispersion describing how much the infections originating from one spreader diverge from the average infection rate: in a scenario allowing for high overdispersion a minority of infected causes the majority of new infections | 21:05 |
| acoupstique | Anyone playing around with making hypochlorous acid as a personal mist or spray ? | 21:06 |
| bin_bash | didn't someone here tell me their friend got covid after going to a doner kebab place | 21:06 |
| LjL-Matrix | bin_bash: i remember that | 21:07 |
| de-facto | suppose a reproduction rate of R=2 then 10 spreading the pathogen cause 20 new infections: if 9 of them only continue linear infection chains by each causing only one new infection, the remaining 10th spreader starts 10 additional infection chains by causing 11 new infections in a super spread event where overdispersion is allowed to happen | 21:07 |
| bin_bash | LjL-Matrix: ok phew I'm not insane lol | 21:07 |
| bin_bash | just saw this picture that reminded me of that https://i.imgur.com/5E5twtj.jpg | 21:08 |
| de-facto | all of the increase of new cases is then concentrated on that one superspreader (hence also all of the control over the increase) | 21:08 |
| bin_bash | de-facto: don't forget about K | 21:08 |
| de-facto | that is only possible if the spread is allowed to do that, e.g. by not preventing gatherings etc | 21:08 |
| * jorge[m]2 sent a long message: < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/IauIRSYPQOWdAhYDQDLctphu/message.txt > | 21:09 | |
| jorge[m]2 | In the 1960’s, the KGB did some interesting psychological experiments. | 21:09 |
| jorge[m]2 | They learned that if you bombard human subjects with fear messages nonstop, in two months or less, most of the subjects are completely brainwashed to believe the false message. | 21:09 |
| jorge[m]2 | To the point that no amount of clear information they are shown, to the contrary, can change their mind. | 21:09 |
| bin_bash | jorge[m]2: nobody is going to click that | 21:09 |
| bin_bash | ugh | 21:09 |
| bin_bash | stupid matrix spammers | 21:09 |
| LjL-Matrix | I am banning them on the Matrix side as fast as I can manage | 21:09 |
| bin_bash | thank you :) | 21:10 |
| bin_bash | i appreciate your hard work | 21:10 |
| asfastasicanmana | facts for rich people: no need to wear mask in business class when flying, because there is no threat. | 21:13 |
| asfastasicanmana | https://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-news/cathay-pacific-face-mask-rules-business-first-class-passengers | 21:13 |
| asfastasicanmana | facts for poor people: view everyone as a threat to your health, trust no one. only trust 'experts' | 21:13 |
| asfastasicanmana | facts for poor people: can't go into a restaurant the airborne virus is everywhere | 21:13 |
| asfastasicanmana | https://airlinegeeks.com/2021/02/10/cathay-pacific-offers-mask-exemption-for-first-and-business-class-passengers/ | 21:13 |
| de-facto | imho its a statement on the mental capability of people when they still assume that after one year anyone could believe such nonsensical claims | 21:14 |
| de-facto | its kinda interesting though | 21:15 |
| LjL-Matrix | I haven't even read the claims made now, but I must admit I was suggestible, at first, to some of their claims. Now that I *believed* them, but I was like, "okay, I can barely follow this but these claims on excess mortality, they look kinda based on something? Can I possibly have the excess mortality stuff completely wrong myself?" | 21:15 |
| LjL-Matrix | I don't know if this means my mental capacity has become terribly low... it probably has, for many reasons, including COVID. But then I also think always doubting one's convictions is a reasonable thing to do. | 21:16 |
| LjL-Matrix | Not about 5G or whatever he had devolved into posting towards the end. I haven't really been reading that, I've been busy just banning. | 21:16 |
| LjL-Matrix | But the first couple of users that I actually had interaction with | 21:16 |
| de-facto | oh i am very much for being open minded and interested into investigating claims and data that were brought up with the constructive intend to contribute something of value that improves the knowledge how to deal with problems | 21:20 |
| LjL-Matrix | de-facto: yes, initially i thought it might just be someone who disagreed with my view of COVID but who wasn't necessarily a troll/spammer/whatever. Now it's pretty obvious. But still, initially he made me doubt some of the things I believed to be true. | 21:21 |
| acoupstique | Pandemic rules for the rich and the poor “Err on the side of caution”! | 21:22 |
| de-facto | yet fortunately almost all of the conspiracy-claims info is brought up in a non-constructive way with the intend to sabotage and that makes it pretty obvious that its a complete waste of time to read into their claims, i did so few times out of curiosity and it all was complete nonsensical reasoning, full of logic flaws and manipulative psychological reasoning etc. | 21:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: 'Don't waste vaccine!' After early confusion, experts say it's always better to use leftover shots than toss them. → https://is.gd/7Z8If9 | 21:24 |
| de-facto | that was at the very begin of the pandemic, now its just ridiculous that there are still people believing such claims | 21:24 |
| LjL-Matrix | It's "interesting" that it takes experts to tell us that it's better to use vaccine than toss it away | 21:25 |
| bin_bash | can just do /mode +b *[m]!*@* | 21:26 |
| bin_bash | oh he didnt even join with [m] nvm | 21:26 |
| LjL-Matrix | Err, well, if I did that, then I might as well untie this channel from its corresponding Matrix room | 21:26 |
| bin_bash | that would be ideal :P | 21:27 |
| bin_bash | but small steps lol | 21:27 |
| LjL-Matrix | I don't intend to do that. In other channels, it's usually the Matrix users who complain about the IRC side being full of spammers. It just depends. Why would all of Matrix have to go, just because one person manages to keep spamming? The same happens on IRC all the time. Should I set a permanent +m if that happens on IRC? | 21:27 |
| * bigbrains[m] uploaded an image: 34546335345345.png (386KiB) < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/uTqXVkSacsmhfonAWbRShVTo/34546335345345.png > | 21:27 | |
| bigbrains[m] | lmfao @ trusting experts. | 21:27 |
| bin_bash | is it really just one person | 21:28 |
| bin_bash | or is it a series of bots | 21:28 |
| LjL-Matrix | If it's bots, it's clearly bots run by one person. | 21:28 |
| acoupstique | People don’t trust Bill | 21:30 |
| de-facto | lol | 21:30 |
| * weeep[m] uploaded an image: 3454634.3454545.png (54KiB) < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/ErAHpUYLjUsGrekjczYTrjyn/3454634.3454545.png > | 21:31 | |
| weeep[m] | quick hide the truth, lmao | 21:31 |
| weeep[m] | we gotta remove these facts from our chat which does nothing more than propagandize official narratives. | 21:31 |
| LjL-Matrix | Sigh, look | 21:32 |
| de-facto | if masks dont work how do medical workers protect themselves during their profession? | 21:32 |
| LjL-Matrix | I tried to reason with you at first, I didn't believe in your theses, but I was prepared to see if there might be truth in parts of them | 21:32 |
| weeep[m] | I never made a claim if they work or not, just sharing the results of an actual scientific study, which used the scientific method | 21:32 |
| LjL-Matrix | but then as I said you just swamped the room with this stuff. I am not a genius, I don't have the ability to absorb tons of things you post in a row, that you probably collected over a long amount of time, and either end up agreeing with them, or find contrary evidence to show you | 21:33 |
| weeep[m] | the best decisions are made using factual evidence, are they not? | 21:33 |
| LjL-Matrix | I can't speak for other people in this channel, but most of them are probably not outright geniuses either! | 21:33 |
| LjL-Matrix | Just you know because on average people aren't :P | 21:33 |
| LjL-Matrix | The best decisions are not made by completely spamming a channel with so much FUD that nobody will ever be able to review in time to answer your claim | 21:33 |
| acoupstique | GroupThink is volatile! | 21:33 |
| LjL-Matrix | This is a realtime chat. Write a blog if you have so much information to share at once | 21:34 |
| weeep[m] | you need to be a genius to fully appreciate what is taking place. due to compartmentalization everyone is specialized in one thing, and nobody has the required expertise in all fields required to understand fully. you must be an expert in virology,immunology,epidemiology,spin chemistry,magnetobiology,public relations,psychology/social sciences,statistics/data analysis..as a start. | 21:35 |
| LjL-Matrix | Are you all that? | 21:36 |
| de-facto | since the pandemic is a global problem it affects everyone in one way or another, there is no single instance that can solve it since its a distributed problem it has to be solved by the people themselves, everyone working together on a solution in a constructive way. | 21:47 |
| weeep[m] | yes, which is why I can read actual papers and find the flaws (usually in the methods or funding section) that are very obvious to people who know. | 21:49 |
| weeep[m] | such as adding antibiotics (which is known to cause cells to expel bits of RNA) to cell culture mediums to cause a predicable reaction in the cells which is then used to show proof of 'virus isolation'. minimum growth medium used in cell cultures is equivalent to a starvation diet, which also causes cell death. they record/observe these reactions and attribute them to exogenous factors. but this is nothing compared to the | 21:49 |
| weeep[m] | amount of fuckery that goes on in clinical trials. | 21:49 |
| de-facto | I think that one of the main difference between many asian and western cultures, hence also the differences in success to deal with the pandemic | 21:49 |
| de-facto | so i ask you one question: what is your constructive contribution to our shared solution of the pandemic problem? | 21:50 |
| LjL-Matrix | One attribute of people who consider themselves geniuses is sometimes also a degree of sociopathic personality, which would go quite well hand in hand with a propension to spam a channel to no end when one is banned from it, instead of respecting the decision and going elsewhere. Just saying, I don't mean to insult, but it actually does correlate as far as I know. | 21:51 |
| LjL-Matrix | * One attribute of people who consider themselves geniuses is sometimes also a degree of sociopathic personality, which would go quite well hand in hand with a propensity to spam a channel to no end when one is banned from it, instead of respecting the decision and going elsewhere. Just saying, I don't mean to insult, but it actually does correlate as far as I know. | 21:53 |
| weeep[m] | in the pfizer/moderna trials, if you read the documentation, the vaccine is only alleging to reduce the incidence of the following symptoms: cough,fever,headache. the same thing that neo-citran for cold and flu does. there is zero evidence that is reduces death. none. we know from the adverse reaction reports it does not come without risks. | 21:53 |
| weeep[m] | if you watched the CDC advisory committee (you probably didn't) is that they openly stated that there had been no risk assessment done on the lipid nanoparticles being used as adjuvants. | 21:53 |
| de-facto | i see so you cant contribute anything constructive in a sense that helps us facing the problems? | 21:55 |
| LjL-Matrix | I actually didn't, but I don't even feel inclined to when your whole argument is based on assuming I didn't bother with checking facts that are obvious to you. I just wonder, what purpose does it serve to spam this channel with stuff that nobody will read? Does it just give you enjoyment to annoy people who you consider inferior? | 21:55 |
| weeep[m] | how did they come up with an incredible 95% efficacy? simple. participants who were given the placebo experienced no pain at the injection site, therefor they knew they were not 'immunized' and so the slightest appearance of any of the previously mentioned 'symptoms' would have them reporting to the trial director, and it would be marked down as 'got covid' (after being 'validated' with the retracted/debunked pcr test) | 21:55 |
| de-facto | look at israel and their stats | 21:56 |
| LjL-Matrix | I can tell you I am aware that they only looked at symptomatic cases, and I'm unhappy with that | 21:56 |
| LjL-Matrix | I don't take that to the extreme conclusion that the vaccine is just crap, though | 21:56 |
| weeep[m] | the ones who did experience pain at the injection site knew that got the real thing, and so any symptom they felt same as the other group were not being reported to the clinical trial director, because it was their understanding that these symptoms are completely normal after a vaccination. | 21:56 |
| LjL-Matrix | I think they should have taken periodic PCR tests (but you don't think those are even valid) of participants | 21:56 |
| LjL-Matrix | In fact, what should they have done, in your opinion? PCR is not a valid test, to you. They should have... really, you can probably deconstruct every method we have and end up saying that no vaccine could possibly work because the virus isn't actually a thing. Which I guess is your ultimate point. What should we say to that? Even if you're right, it is SO detached to commonly-understood reality that we're never going to | 21:57 |
| LjL-Matrix | find a point in common | 21:57 |
| weeep[m] | so we have one group underreporting symptoms (vaccine) and another group overreporting them (placebo) | 21:57 |
| weeep[m] | ..and when you add it up, 'the vaccine was more effective than placebo' | 21:57 |
| bolovanos | arguing with robot? :) | 21:58 |
| bolovanos | whole new lvl | 21:58 |
| weeep[m] | this is just 1 thing they do in clinical trials to arrive at pre-determined outcomes, there is a whole bag of tricks at their disposal | 21:58 |
| LjL-Matrix | weeep: other trials have been criticized by "skeptical" people like you for using another vaccine (meningitis, in one of the AZ trials, IIRC) in the control arm instead of placebo. Those people will scream "that way they hide the adverse reactions"! And yet, it would be the obvious way to mask the effect that you are describing as problematic. | 21:58 |
| bolovanos | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test | 21:59 |
| LjL-Matrix | bolovanos: okay, i leave it up to you then | 22:00 |
| de-facto | there are preprints confirming the claims of the phase III trials of BNT162b2 | 22:00 |
| de-facto | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.05.21251139v1 | 22:00 |
| LjL-Matrix | please perform a turing test on it | 22:00 |
| de-facto | .title | 22:00 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Estimating real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in Israel | medRxiv | 22:00 |
| weeep[m] | not sure why you put skeptical in quotes? the entire scientific method is founded on skepticism..are you not a fan of science or something? | 22:00 |
| bolovanos | LjL-Matrix, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Quixote#Tilting_at_windmills | 22:00 |
| de-facto | data on https://data.gov.il/dataset/covid-19 | 22:00 |
| de-facto | soruce code for analysis on https://github.com/dviraran/covid_analyses | 22:01 |
| LjL-Matrix | weeep: I don't think being a "fan of science" in that term is a good thing, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVPy25wQ07k about that. But I put "skeptical" in quotes because while everyone should be skeptical to a sound degree, what I really was thinking of is that you're skeptical in the sense that you find extreme patterns that aren't actually in the data and end up with conspiracy theories that are most likely | 22:01 |
| LjL-Matrix | wrong. | 22:01 |
| bolovanos | google translate in chrome keeps hebrew pages on right flag :) | 22:02 |
| LjL-Matrix | But I said "skeptical" because I didn't want, in that particular instance, to particularly highlight the fact I think you're wrong. | 22:02 |
| LjL-Matrix | bolovanos: wut | 22:02 |
| bolovanos | LjL-Matrix, https://data.gov.il/dataset/covid-19 | 22:02 |
| LjL-Matrix | bolovanos: oh yeah I remember when I had it translate that page it was still all RTL formatted | 22:03 |
| de-facto | another paper looking at the effect of vaccinations on hospitalizations in Israel | 22:07 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.08.21251325v1.full | 22:07 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Patterns of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics following deployment of a broad national immunization program | medRxiv | 22:07 |
| de-facto | and of course the one i linked yesterday about the reduction of viral load from vaccinations | 22:08 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.06.21251283v1 | 22:08 |
| bolovanos | LjL-Matrix, hebrew is rtl, but that output is "flush right" - I have translated right flag - directly from my language where it is used as a term for "flush right" alignment | 22:09 |
| de-facto | "Decreased SARS-CoV-2 viral load following vaccination" | 22:09 |
| bolovanos | to be more specific - hebrew is rtl aligned as flush right, output in eng is flush right only... | 22:10 |
| bolovanos | de-facto, is it that 400k vs 1mil5 mentioned here https://youtu.be/UWGD6q3VfUI?t=259 ? | 22:10 |
| bolovanos | LjL-Matrix, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typographic_alignment | 22:11 |
| de-facto | so i think that is helpful information because it helps with understanding the effects to be expected from deploying vaccinations, the more we know about it the better we can integrate such info in a constructive strategy to address our current problems | 22:11 |
| LjL | bolovanos, yes, i realized "RTL" wasn't the correct term given the english text is readable normally, i thought it was roughly clear what i meant | 22:11 |
| bolovanos | LjL, now it is absolutely clear :) | 22:12 |
| de-facto | bolovanos, i am not sure i have not watched that one yet | 22:12 |
| bolovanos | de-facto, it is ff at that exact moment he is mentioning output relating vacc in israel | 22:14 |
| de-facto | above is about BioNTech BNT162b2 vaccinations reducing viral load taken by PCR-CT values | 22:20 |
| de-facto | im not sure what you refer to in that TWIV | 22:21 |
| de-facto | ooh its before your timestamp | 22:21 |
| de-facto | meeeh | 22:21 |
| bolovanos | ups | 22:21 |
| bolovanos | :) | 22:21 |
| bolovanos | sry | 22:22 |
| bolovanos | In our country (Czech r.) we have informations on ICU overload - https://www.covdata.cz/pece.php#CZ010,CZ064 - how about your countries? | 22:25 |
| de-facto | yes that exactly that paper they are talking about there in TWIV | 22:26 |
| bolovanos | ok - thank you | 22:27 |
| \mSg | <3 TWiV | 22:27 |
| de-facto | oh bolovanos i wanted to ask you, do you know about studies estimating the portion of B.1.1.7 in new infections for Czech Republic over time? | 22:29 |
| bolovanos | de-facto, among other things - we started sequencing to late (weeks), so I am wondering how many data were collected already too | 22:31 |
| de-facto | i am asking because in Germany we have a massive increase already 1 in 5 cases and reproduction of B.1.1.7 maybe 155%-180% faster than with previous variants | 22:32 |
| bolovanos | I have seen contribution in that phylogeny tree from tilia laboratory - which is led by one controversial person who were really active in the beginning of pandemic | 22:32 |
| de-facto | btw about your question ICU stats for Germany are available at https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/zeitreihen | 22:33 |
| bolovanos | de-facto, I think that this will the same probably worse in here - | 22:34 |
| bolovanos | https://www.tribune.cz/clanek/46326-nakazlivejsi-britska-varianta-se-cesku-nevyhnula | 22:35 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/qp9lMRs https://i.imgur.com/jQrqZKL.png source: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-02-17.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 22:37 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: VOC B.1.1.7 vs classic SARS-CoV-2 - Album on Imgur | 22:37 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/IqCX1e7 https://i.imgur.com/dcwfoFF.png source: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-02-17.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 22:37 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: SARS-CoV-2 COV B.1.1.7 number of samples per region on 2021-02-17 - Album on Imgur | 22:37 |
| de-facto | so that map makes me wonder if there already is even more B.1.1.7 in Czech Republic possibly | 22:38 |
| bolovanos | I would not be surprised - but those late reaction on everything give us really blurry view of the real situation is | 22:40 |
| de-facto | would be interesting to see the portion of B.1.1.7 since incidence seems to begin to raise again in .cz | 22:40 |
| de-facto | it also should be identifiable by the S-gene dropout with that primer they used in UK that gave them a heads up on the presence of the new variant | 22:41 |
| de-facto | i mean if the same primer for the S-protein gene gives PCR negative result while the other primers (probably N-gene etc) still show positive | 22:42 |
| de-facto | its because of the 69/70-del mutation in the B.1.1.7 iirc | 22:43 |
| bolovanos | did not know that - "old" PCR tests did not detect B.1.1.7? | 22:45 |
| de-facto | well it always depends on the exact primer in use, afaik now they designed several primers specific for each of the new VOCs so they can be distinguished by their key mutations | 22:46 |
| de-facto | btw thats exactly the reason they use multiple gene targets in the same PCR test, so even if one gene drops out (due to a new mutation) the test still would show a correct result | 22:47 |
| bolovanos_ | hopefully "someone" is working on updating those targets continuously | 22:49 |
| bolovanos_ | I was wondering if there is something like levenshtein | 22:50 |
| bolovanos_ | distance | 22:51 |
| bolovanos_ | for gene swaps - mutation - how many letters from significant change is that virus... | 22:52 |
| de-facto | in sequences yes but not in primers afaik they have to fit exactly | 22:52 |
| bolovanos_ | btw - prediction on rise in cases for UK in march / april https://youtu.be/Qr6Tn5DU_Sw?t=906 | 22:53 |
| de-facto | but primers are only short sequence parts, so the probability of dropout by mutation is lower than for longer sequences to be conserved | 22:55 |
| bolovanos_ | For example searching in known viral sequences and computing L. distance to know that - i.e. we are 3 changes from some HIV specific capability ... | 22:56 |
| bolovanos_ | de-facto, yes but at the same time - the shorter sequence the higher probability of "hash collisions" :) | 22:57 |
| bolovanos_ | so that is why they probably have more than one short sequence... | 22:57 |
| bolovanos_ | I guess. | 22:57 |
| de-facto | yeah its a compromise between being specific enough (hence long enough) and still not having a too high probability of drop out by a mutation occurring in the frame of that sequence length where the primer would have to fit exactly | 23:01 |
| de-facto | also there are more conserved (but also more CoV generic) parts (such as the n-gene) of the RNA than others under high selective pressure by the immune system (such as the s-gene) | 23:03 |
| bolovanos_ | that is why it should be under constant development because we hugely dependent on it | 23:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 500 well-connected people in Peru received Chinese vaccine ahead of essential workers → https://is.gd/cbGq19 | 23:03 |
| de-facto | it surely is, afaik in Germany they have so called "ring tests" where they mix in samples with known results to evaluate the predictive capability of labs | 23:04 |
| de-facto | the reason i mentioned PCR tests is that they allow for directly identifying new VOCs without requiring to wait for a full sequence to be ready | 23:05 |
| de-facto | hence result on the same day and not taking a week (not sure why sequencing takes so long) | 23:06 |
| bolovanos_ | thanks for that - hopefully it is shared and hopefully it will get adopted by proper people here ... snap... | 23:06 |
| de-facto | that is PCR allowing to identify known VOCs with specific primers, unknown new mutations only can be found by doing a full sequence and comparing against the known phylogenetic tree (e.g. nextstrain.org, gisaid etc) | 23:07 |
| de-facto | .title https://virological.org/t/b-1-258-a-sars-cov-2-variant-with-h69-v70-in-the-spike-protein-circulating-in-the-czech-republic-and-slovakia/613 btw it seems there also are analysis going on in .cz | 23:10 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From virological.org: B.1.258∆, a SARS-CoV-2 variant with ∆H69/∆V70 in the Spike protein circulating in the Czech Republic and Slovakia - nCoV-2019 Genomic Epidemiology - Virological | 23:10 |
| bolovanos_ | de-facto, yes something is probably happening after Prof. Hel talked to our micromanger premier, at least he claims it | 23:14 |
| bolovanos_ | https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zden%C4%9Bk_Hel | 23:14 |
| kreyren | anything new on covid in the last 5 days | 23:15 |
| bolovanos_ | I mean that global sequencing of variants | 23:16 |
| bolovanos_ | de-facto, nice work - there is nice summary | 23:19 |
| de-facto | they have many articles of very high quality on virological.org its a good source for the newest info (but its not peer reviewed journal or such), its more for discussion between scientists | 23:22 |
| bolovanos_ | btw - there was a vaccination case years back - for some flue strain in UK.~600k health care personnel were vaccinated and they had few cases of bad reaction, because that vaccine aimed on one part of that virus which collided in some people. | 23:23 |
| bolovanos_ | I cannot find that source - anywhere - do you know something about it? | 23:23 |
| de-facto | idk about that sorry | 23:25 |
| de-facto | but before 2020 i also did not follow such news so much, so might very well be that i missed that | 23:25 |
| CoronaBot | /r/coronavirus: 95 per cent of over 70s in Great Britain given vaccine - less than 1% decline (10112 votes) | https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-95-per-cent-of-over-70s-in-great-britain-given-vaccine/ | https://redd.it/lo55kz | 23:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from Wikipedia on VUI-202012/01: EmausBot: Bot: Fixing double redirect to Lineage B.1.1.7: Bot: Fixing double redirect to Lineage B.1.1.7 ← Previous revision Revision as of 22:44, 20 February 2021 Line 1: Line 1: − #REDIRECT [[ Variant of Concern 202012/01 ]] + #REDIRECT [[ Lineage B.1.1.7 ]] {{Redirect category shell| {{Redirect category shell| → https://is.gd/FTdMDU | 23:52 |
Generated by irclog2html.py 2.17.0 by Marius Gedminas - find it at https://mg.pov.lt/irclog2html/!
