libera/##covid-19/ Sunday, 2021-11-28

de-factohere they sell oil that contains 5000IU per single drop00:00
darsieeven 10 kIU per drop.00:00
LjLwow00:01
LjLbut anyway, yes, oil00:01
de-factothose cost around 15€ and they claim its a years worth of supply00:01
LjLi get 1000IU with 4 drops00:01
darsiehttps://www.vitabay.net/vitamin-d3-liquid-10.000-ie-depot-vegane-tropfen-nur-eine-portion/10-tage-1856?number=VO167700:01
LjLthe one i have is classified as a medication though not a supplement00:01
LjLnot sure if that's just a legal distinction, or it may be better controlled00:02
LjLwe have an Omicron case in Milan now00:04
LjLfirst case in Italy00:04
ublx*that you know about00:04
de-factoyeah cases will appear everywhere now since they evacuated from the epicenter of an outbreak without quarantine again00:05
de-factothose that got infected there with the outbreak few days ago get pulled out and let into the target countries without quarantine00:06
de-facto.title https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/00:11
Brainstormde-facto: From bnonews.com: Tracking COVID-19 variant Omicron - BNO News00:11
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Anthony J Leonardi, PhD, MS (@fitterhappierAJ): When sera escape variants emerge, you have little defense other than masks and ventilationPlease listen to and follow aerosol experts like @kprather88 and mask policy experts like @JuliaRaifman because it's your primary defense and [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/146473469665968947600:20
LjLde-facto, they're saying Germany has finalized a new government? are they the people you are expecting? what about the health minister?00:22
LjLwhat coalition is it even, SPD and Greens?00:23
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Vienna brothel offers customers 30 minutes with "lady of their choice" in exchange for coronavirus jab | World News → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r3png2/vienna_brothel_offers_customers_30_minutes_with/00:29
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +2679 cases (now 1.8 million), +19 deaths (now 29681) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +39834 cases (now 10.2 million) since 20 hours ago00:32
LjLi would be laughing at the above if... well i am laughing a bit anyway00:36
de-factoi am not sure, i think they did not announce ministers yet00:37
de-factohealth minister MUST be Lauterbach, every other choice would make zero sense in comparison00:38
ublx+40k cases what the heck00:44
ublxthat would be more than doubling overnight00:44
de-factowhere?00:44
ublxuk00:44
de-factohttps://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/00:45
de-factolooks pretty normal for UK00:46
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Antonio Caramia (@Antonio_Caramia): @fitterhappierAJ @kprather88 @JuliaRaifman IMO I suggest to follow also @trishgreenhalgh and @jljcolorado. They are simply TOP about airborne transmission. #OmicronIsAirborne → https://twitter.com/Antonio_Caramia/status/146473649664109363400:48
ublxaccording to owid, daily uk cases have been climbing to 16000 as of yesterday00:48
ublxnot 4000000:48
ublxguess there's something wrong with the data/plot i'm looking at00:49
ublxok definitely something wrong with the plot i'm looking at00:51
LjLno ublx00:51
LjLit's definitely been ~40k for a while00:51
ublxyeah, apologies to owid00:51
ublxproblem is in my plot00:51
LjLwe might need to bribe tinwhiskers00:53
ublxactually i just need more sleep :|00:54
ublxlooking at the wrong scale. on the plot. generated by program i wrote myself *facedesk*00:54
LjLright now i think i could do with slipping into some nice eternal sleep without realizing00:54
ublxnah, just need suspended animation. quick 500 year nap00:58
LjLeh, if covid were the only reason why, then i guess00:59
ublxwhatever cures covid will have been thoroughly generalised in 500 years01:00
LjLor i will wake up on a desert planet01:00
ublxmaybe instead of mask mandates we could have suspended animation mandates01:01
ublxwith a skeleton crew going about planting trees01:02
LjLwould you trust them to wake us up again01:04
ublxjust set your alarm extra loud01:04
aannhttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/south-african-doctor-raised-alarm-omicron-variant-says-symptoms/01:14
ublxgood to see some remarks about symptoms01:18
de-factocovid may be the pandemic necessary to prepare humanity for a sustainable way to continue existing in a globalized world01:24
LjLsomeone here also said earlier symptoms appeared to be mild, but i didn't pay attention to where they were getting that from01:24
LjLintense fatigue... i'm not sure that's a reassuring symptom to me01:25
LjLyes, i know, nothing is reassuring to me01:25
LjLbut it's also the most prevalent long-COVID symptom01:25
spokojni[m]Anyone infected had headache?01:26
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: South African doctor who first alerted authorities says the symptoms of COVID-19's new Omicron variant are ‘unusual but mild’ → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r3qmzu/south_african_doctor_who_first_alerted/01:26
de-factoif most of the infections so far happened in young people its hard to tell the rate for severe progressions, since those tend to occur more often in aged01:26
LjL"South African demographics are very different from those in the UK. Only about six per cent of the population are over the age of 65. This means that older individuals who are more vulnerable to the virus may take some time to present."01:26
LjLit's possible these cases would be even *less* symptomatic and wouldn't end up in a doctor's office, in young people pre-Omicron01:27
LjLso i think this early information could be read either way01:27
de-factohttps://ourworldindata.org/age-structure01:30
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +22052 cases (now 2.6 million) since 21 hours ago01:41
joerg>><LjL> the fact that they can put an RNA string together in 12 weeks<<   https://indianexpress.com/article/world/pfizer-biontech-moderna-vaccine-new-omicron-variant-7644041/  100d to rollout01:41
joergDredd: ^^^01:42
jkki saw a woman today she coughed a lot? corona?01:42
jkkalso from where new wave is coming hmm01:43
LjLjoerg, well ship initial batches... to "everyone", or to trial subjects?01:43
LjLjkk, we can't possibly know...01:43
jkki could measure her temp with a contactless thermometer01:44
jkkthose are cheap01:44
LjLthat sounds like a bad idea01:44
jkkcause?01:45
LjLmainly because she'd be even more likely to cough on you.01:45
jkkno she was polite01:45
jkkand fun :)01:45
LjLoh you "saw" like that01:45
jkkI like to socialise so coughing no coughing01:46
jkkalso there was an article somewhere saying some particles are simple exhaled without a cought01:46
LjLanyway, knowing her temperature would still not let you know if it's COVID01:46
jkktrue :)01:46
LjLmany things that give people cough also give them fever01:46
LjLsure, there's no need to be coughing, the whole "droplet" idea... please forget it. i mean, it stands to reason that coughing and sneezing make it *worse*, but one can be infected without01:47
LjLsinging on the other hand seems to be a pretty big culprit, going by the choirs that all got COVID01:47
jkkpeople breath touch face touch food in supermarket etc etc01:48
jkkso yes :)01:48
LjLpeople are basically terrible01:48
jkkhowever few times I got it - was from a close contact with crazy girls01:48
jkkone time in sauna :)01:48
lastshellde-facto that is a good data point the average age per country01:49
jkkthey were coughing too01:49
LjLyou got COVID a "few times"?01:49
jkkso maybe new rule for me - if she coughs she had to go01:50
joergLjL: AIUI a batch is quite a volume01:50
jkkLjL, some people had it 5 times - people who work with public01:50
jkkit is often asymptomatic01:50
LjLit is asymptomatic about half of the time (very roughly speaking), as far as i know. 5 times seems quite the claim, not sure i've heard of such a number before.01:51
LjLjoerg, but anyway, it has to be trialed, unless countries will suddenly decide to ditch all trial requirements01:51
jkkwell first time I did not test - just felt like some bizzare thing :) and yes many people are terrible nowadays01:52
jkkthey do not maintain cleanliness01:52
LjLjoerg, which i'm not ruling out. if Omicron turns out to also be very deadly, who knows what governments may do.01:53
jkkI saw waitress putting fingers in her nose, etc. so I mostly eat food from a supermarket lol01:53
jkkLjL, already new rules in UK01:53
LjLwell the rules in the UK were a joke currently...01:53
jkkin my case I like to socialise so hmm01:53
joergwell, the "once survived, never get it again" idea died with the realization that the idea if sterile immunity from vaccination was a misconception01:56
lastshellTurboTech is here ?01:56
joergof course you may get confronted to the virus several times, and your body will have to defeat it several times then. Call that an infection or a normal healthy process, whatever floats your boat01:57
jkkI would say not a rule however is person coughs a lot she may be infected01:58
jkkor a serial smoker :)01:58
jkkhow covid affected the way your socialise?01:59
lastshellit depends of where you located jkk02:00
jkkcurrently in eastern europe02:00
jkk:)02:00
lastshellsome countries were more cold in the way they greet each other other hugs and kiss02:00
jkkyes in brazil people like to kiss on a cheek02:00
jkkfrench do it too02:00
lastshellcorrect02:01
lastshellthat right now is not good practice02:01
jkkwell depends02:01
jkksocialising is fun02:01
joergjust to keep you up to date: at least 5 confirmed cases in germany02:01
lastshellso we have 5 in germany and only 2 in uk ?02:01
jkkif I wanted to stay alone I would move to forest02:01
lastshellLjL I thing we need to assume omicron is already in US ?02:05
LjLlastshell, i won't venture a guess on that02:06
LjLDelta took a bit longer to take off in the US than in Europe02:06
LjLalso, more than 60 people in the Netherlands (at least flying into the Netherlands) had it02:07
lastshellso proably in 2 months I wish no but we will se a covid spike if omicron pass to US ?02:08
LjLi don't know. i've literally known of the existence of this variant for two days02:08
lastshellI know is impossible to predict right now but based on Delta just a wild guess02:09
LjLlastshell, "Omicron has not yet been identified in the United States, but it is likely already here, scientists said." https://www.reuters.com/world/how-worried-should-we-be-about-omicron-variant-2021-11-27/02:11
LjLnot sure which scientists say that, but fwiw...02:12
de-factoLjL, i ask myself if they did put the passengers from SA in Amsterdam in a normal queue (without isolation) if they tested them for SARS-CoV-2 if their intention is to allow 539 out of 600 people freely depart with telling them they are not infected by Omicron02:12
LjLlastshell, i will guess i expect a locked down christmas all over Europe02:12
LjLthe US may be relatively spared until a bit later02:13
de-factowhile assuming those 61 that came back with a positive test could not possibly infect any single one of those 539 that did not test positive *today* on arrival just hours post potential contamination02:13
LjLbut really, i should point out that we *technically* don't even know if this thing is more contagious02:13
LjL(i think it is, but i don't know, it's just my intuition)02:13
lastshellin 2 /3 weeks we might have data to know how bad is this ?02:13
LjLprobably02:14
LjLPfizer said it will take them two weeks to make an initial assessment02:14
LjLbut i think in 3 weeks we'll also "know" from just seeing the cases02:14
lastshellright02:14
jkklets say this 'virus' will continue for next 5 years - what are we doing about socialising?02:14
de-factostop it02:15
de-factoand its a real virus without scare quotes02:15
spokojni[m]Get a rope02:15
lastshellsomebody post the movie covid 2020 I think that will be the reality02:15
LjLspokojni[m], excuse me?02:16
spokojni[m]My 30s will be gone02:16
spokojni[m]By the time this ends02:16
LjLi'm sorry02:16
spokojni[m]My life will be ruined02:16
spokojni[m]Why even bother02:16
lastshelloh sorry the virus was planned to screw your life02:16
LjLbut i think "socializing" (and more than that, just not locking down worldwide in a concerted and serious fashion) in spite of the virus being such a threat is what brought us here02:16
jkkmy plan is to socialise more now unless people cought a lot and even then02:17
de-factonot just yours if we worked together instead of everyone just selfishly thinking about the own needs we may have a chance to control it and suppress the viral spread02:17
spokojni[m]Yeah me too02:17
lastshellI recommend exercise02:17
LjLi think if 5 years from now, people will be devastated about their lack of socialization, some of them, certainly not all, but some, should them ask themselves whether they have contributed to that outcome, by stubbornly insisting on socializing even early on02:17
jkkLjL, or 'virus' was brought out to reduce socialising and FB metaverse is coming02:18
jkkeither way if people will stay mostly online for years most will  not socialise later02:18
de-factobecause the attitude of such people that take their own selfish wishes to socialize, get entertained, travel intercontinentally etc this will go on forever02:18
LjLoh please02:18
LjLjkk, if you don't even believe the virus is real, then i don't think you have much business here02:19
LjLso you're quieted. feel free to keep reading if it interests you, but if you're just here to subtly make fun of the rest of us "for believing in the virus", i'm not game02:19
LjLalso fwiw lastshell02:30
LjLHowever, Fauci said on Saturday that he would not be surprised if the variant is already here.02:30
LjL"We have not detected it yet, but when you have a virus that is showing this degree of transmissibility and you're already having travel-related cases that they've noted in Israel and Belgium and other places ... it almost invariably is ultimately going to go essentially all over," he said in an interview on the Today show.02:30
LjLhttps://www.npr.org/2021/11/27/1059534796/covid-19-vaccine-makers-combat-omicron-variant02:30
LjLi guess this is better than "some scientists say"02:30
lastshellLjL thanks03:12
de-facto.title https://www.nicd.ac.za/frequently-asked-questions-for-the-b-1-1-529-mutated-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-south-africa/03:21
Brainstormde-facto: From www.nicd.ac.za: Frequently asked questions for the B.1.1.529 mutated SARS-CoV-2 lineage in South Africa - NICD03:21
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Being ‘punished’ for early detecting new Covid-19 variant Omicron: South Africa → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/being-punished-for-early-detecting-new-covid-19-variant-omicron-south-africa-7645182/03:28
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: More than seven billion doses of coronavirus vaccines have been administered, in at least 197 countries worldwide → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r3thww/more_than_seven_billion_doses_of_coronavirus/03:56
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Man Who Went To COVID Party to Build Immunity Dies From the Virus → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r3u5ws/man_who_went_to_covid_party_to_build_immunity/04:15
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Derrick VanGennep (@VanGennepD): @fitterhappierAJ @nickduncs Source for those asking: "0.1%-1.9% of all their child COVID-19 cases resulted in hospitalization"So, ~1% of cases seems realistic.aap.org/en/pages/2019-… → https://twitter.com/VanGennepD/status/146479691439888384404:53
de-facto.title https://www.science.org/content/article/patience-crucial-why-we-won-t-know-weeks-how-dangerous-omicron05:23
Brainstormde-facto: From www.science.org: 'Patience is crucial': Why we won't know for weeks how dangerous Omicron is | Science | AAAS05:23
de-facto.title https://www.merck.com/news/merck-and-ridgeback-biotherapeutics-provide-update-on-results-from-move-out-study-of-molnupiravir-an-investigational-oral-antiviral-medicine-in-at-risk-adults-with-mild-to-moderate-covid-19/05:32
Brainstormde-facto: From www.merck.com: Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics Provide Update on Results from MOVe-OUT Study of Molnupiravir, an Investigational Oral Antiviral Medicine, in At Risk Adults With Mild-to-Moderate COVID-19 - Merck.com05:32
de-facto"Data are now available from all enrolled participants (n=1433). In this study population, molnupiravir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death from 9.7% in the placebo group (68/699) to 6.8% (48/709) in the molnupiravir group, for an absolute risk reduction of 3.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1, 5.9; nominal p-value=0.0218) and a relative risk reduction of 30% (relative risk 0.70; 95% CI: 0.49, 0.99). Nine deaths were reported in the05:33
de-factoplacebo group, and one in the molnupiravir group. The adverse event profile for molnupiravir remained consistent with the profile reported at the planned interim analysis."05:33
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +44977 cases (now 5.8 million) since 23 hours ago — India: +8774 cases (now 34.6 million), +621 deaths (now 468554) since 23 hours ago05:37
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 835: Giving thanks for antibodies: TWiV reviews why children should be vaccinated against COVID-19, increased risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 Beta, Gamma, and Delta variant compared to Alpha variant in vaccinated but not recovered individuals, and immune correlates of protection from the mRNA-1273 [... want %more?] → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-835/06:09
BrainstormUpdates for Unknown, Netherlands: +225 cases (now 10418) since 23 hours ago — Lombardy, Italy: +1926 cases (now 926977), +14 deaths (now 34344) since 23 hours ago — Atacama, Chile: +1 deaths (now 369) since 4 days ago06:33
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Feelings: Finland’s virtual museum to help people cope with Covid-19’s psychological impact → https://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/feelings/finland-virtual-museum-mental-health-cope-covid-19-psychological-impact-7645330/06:46
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: ChristosArgyropoulos MD, PhD FlozinatorInChief (@ChristosArgyrop): There is another more interesting (and concerning possibility) ie that the hijacking of the TMEM245 peptide functions to mask epitopes in the NTD domain, one of the places along the spike that neutralizing antibodies [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/ChristosArgyrop/status/146483569220737843207:05
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Travellers test positive to Omicron COVID-19 strain after arriving in Sydney from southern Africa, NSW Health says → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r3xoqd/travellers_test_positive_to_omicron_covid19/07:33
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Omicron COVID-19 could already be in US, Fauci says → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r3xysx/omicron_covid19_could_already_be_in_us_fauci_says/07:52
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Tighter rules to be set out after two cases of new variant found in UK → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-5944512408:01
sdfgsdfgit doesn't look like the rise in germany is slowing down08:14
sdfgsdfgcould they see 200k a day ?08:14
sdfgsdfgif delta omicron and some other big boys get mixed around europe it's going to be an absolute fkfest08:15
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: As Covid infections spread, US nursing homes lag behind on the rollout for booster shots → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/as-covid-infections-spread-us-nursing-homes-lag-behind-on-the-rollout-for-booster-shots-7645432/08:20
edcbasdfgsdfg: so it seems amsterdam flight ppl got tested everyone in same room then separated according to test (10 hrs waiting) then the negative were told to go back home08:35
edcbaanyway if it is that contagious there is no way it's not everywhere already08:36
sdfgsdfgwe have to publish the "first cases of x nation" articles for another day or two08:38
sdfgsdfgI guess08:39
edcbaso flight bans are useless unless when you ban all flights coming to your country08:42
sdfgsdfg"Israel is banning the entry of all foreigners into the country, making it the first country to shut its borders completely in response to the Omicron variant. It also said it would use counter-terrorism phone-tracking technology in order to contain the spread of the Omicron variant."08:43
sdfgsdfgI wonder what they're planning with their counter terrorism phone tracking tech08:43
edcbaif israel can't make it not sure any country can succeed08:43
sdfgsdfghow will they know who to track lol08:43
edcbacoughing AI detection!08:44
edcbano but basically time reversing08:45
edcbayou find guy that is infected and reverse what he has done back to infection08:45
sdfgsdfgI think contract tracing or chasing a virus sounds as stupid as running away from radiation08:47
sdfgsdfgit will only be successful to a degree... even then there are undeclared cases I bet08:48
sdfgsdfgeven with hotel quarantine in rare cases people carry infection beyond 2 weeks of quarantine, after testing negative08:48
* CoJaBo finally got the booster08:49
CoJaBoAlso, ow.08:49
sdfgsdfgyou dn't even know if it works against omicron08:49
CoJaBoI'm hoping it works somewhat08:51
CoJaBoThey don't even try to bother with contract tracing here, because you probably got it from any of the 30 different people at walmart who had it, weren't vaxxed, and weren't wearing masks lol08:52
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: Israel to impose travel ban for foreigners over new variant → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r3yw0v/covid_israel_to_impose_travel_ban_for_foreigners/08:57
joerg>><sdfgsdfg> could they see 200k a day ? << nope, I think there's a trend change. incidences increase slowed down from >30%  to 5% to 2% and soo should go down09:03
joergsoon*09:04
joergI guess we won't even reach the 100k09:04
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | November 28, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/r3z84f/daily_discussion_thread_november_28_2021/09:06
joergznless... omikron, you know :-S09:07
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: China warns of ‘colossal’ COVID outbreak if it opens up like US, France → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/r3zj8q/china_warns_of_colossal_covid_outbreak_if_it/09:25
sdfgsdfgit'll probably go down for a bit and explode again like in uk09:29
sdfgsdfgand with omiboy boosting that wave, who knows, next stop is the moon09:30
sdfgsdfgI wish we had variant names like sunshine or moonshine or venus glitter or something09:31
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Study warns China of ‘colossal outbreak’ of Covid-19 if it opens up → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/study-warns-china-of-colossal-outbreak-of-covid-19-if-it-opens-up-7645527/09:34
BrainstormUpdates for France: +6 cases (now 7.7 million) since 23 hours ago09:40
joergwhy not Zeus, Hades, Zerberus, Centaur...09:42
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Australia confirms two cases of Omicron Covid-19 variant → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/australia-confirms-two-cases-of-omicron-covid-19-variant-7645552/09:44
joergOmikron could spell doom or an unexpected support to contain that shit, since people finally feel scraed again09:44
joergseems to me people feeling scraed is a better NPI than any of ALAH, 2G, 2G, 2G+ and lockdowns09:47
joergscared*09:47
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Face masks to be compulsory in England from Tuesday, says Javid → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-5944948010:12
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Fergus Walsh (@BBCFergusWalsh): Arrivals to UK from 4am Tuesday 30th November will need to book a PCR test.   Lateral flows ok until then.  Update is on the gov.uk Passenger locator form pic.twitter.com/DqN6nAPqZL → https://twitter.com/BBCFergusWalsh/status/146488720361248358510:30
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19 cases in children are up 32% from two weeks ago, pediatricians' group says → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r40f7u/covid19_cases_in_children_are_up_32_from_two/10:40
sdfgsdfgmaybe we should vaccinate kids with an extra shot10:45
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid update: Australia confirms first Omicron cases | → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r40wfh/covid_update_australia_confirms_first_omicron/11:08
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +43470 cases (now 5.8 million) since 20 hours ago11:32
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Israel tightens travel restrictions over new COVID variant → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/israel-travel-restrictions-new-covid-variant-7645677/11:45
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19: 'No need to panic' about Omicron variant, 'symptoms are mild' so far - SAMA board chair → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r41n74/covid19_no_need_to_panic_about_omicron_variant/12:04
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Israel to impose travel ban for foreigners over new variant → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-5944854712:23
BrainstormNew from r/Science: science: Researchers: HIV killed by vaccine in monkeys → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/r42aqz/researchers_hiv_killed_by_vaccine_in_monkeys/12:32
BrainstormUpdates for Nepal: +154 cases (now 820878), +2 deaths (now 11523), +6604 tests (now 4.6 million) since a day ago12:34
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Swiss voters back Covid pass law → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r42crm/swiss_voters_back_covid_pass_law/12:52
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Preach! TL:DR ‘sit down, be humble’ 🙏🏻✌🏻🇿🇦 → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/r42l8q/preach_tldr_sit_down_be_humble/13:20
BrainstormNew from r/Science: science: Emotional toll of COVID-19 on health workers is vast, varied. HCWs reported emotions related to changes in family, social life, and occupational function. They expressed fear of contracting COVID-19 and spreading the infection to family and friends → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/r42v2o/emotional_toll_of_covid19_on_health_workers_is/13:30
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israel to ban foreigners from entering over Covid - BBC News → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r437dn/israel_to_ban_foreigners_from_entering_over_covid/13:39
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk): BREAKING: Netherlands reports at least 13 cases of new coronavirus variant bnonews.com/index.php/2021… → https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/146493595286287974513:49
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Omicron: India to review Covid SOP, countries impose travel curbs, and other key developments today → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/omicron-countries-restriction-india-covid-sop-7645793/13:58
BrainstormUpdates for Bangladesh: +205 cases (now 1.6 million), +3 deaths (now 27978), +19811 tests (now 10.9 million) since 23 hours ago14:07
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +45136 cases (now 5.8 million) since 23 hours ago14:32
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Vaccine inequity and hesitancy made the Omicron variant more likely, scientists say → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r44qhy/vaccine_inequity_and_hesitancy_made_the_omicron/15:14
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Maldives bans travelers from 7 African nations due to Omicron COVID variant → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r457e0/maldives_bans_travelers_from_7_african_nations/15:33
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +109 cases (now 10.2 million) since 20 hours ago15:41
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Germany: Dozens take illegal mystery COVID vaccine before police shut it down → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r45ojn/germany_dozens_take_illegal_mystery_covid_vaccine/15:52
genera\o/15:53
minthoshahaha16:14
generathe subliminal message probably is: germany is vaccine eldorado16:25
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk): BREAKING: Morocco bans all international flights due to new coronavirus variant → https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/146497311575102669016:30
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: The Netherlands confirmed 13 cases of the new omicron variant of the coronavirus on Sunday and Australia found two as the countries half a world apart became the latest to detect it in travelers arriving from southern Africa. → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r46o8z/the_netherlands_confirmed_13_cases_of_the_new/16:40
lastshellhttps://www.politico.eu/article/france-detects-highly-pathogenic-bird-flu-outbreak/ Bird-flu in france ?16:42
minthos"The Dutch public health authority confirmed that 13 people who arrived from South Africa Friday have so far tested positive for omicron. They were among 61 people who tested positive for the virus after arriving on the last two flights to Amsterdam (...)"16:46
spokojni[m]Oh no 🙈 we are all going to die 😿16:48
lastshellyes that is true16:48
lastshellregadless if you get covid or no, we are not going to life forever16:49
minthosI'll try16:49
lastshellnot even musk or bezos are going to live forever16:49
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The US is the largest source of confirmed new Delta cases, >90,000 per day (before holiday tracking issues). Highest European countries per capita here, most are pandemic records pic.twitter.com/yfapoAARVg → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146498250644528333116:50
minthosmaybe not literally forever but a trillion years should be doable with the right technology16:50
darsieFeeding dead stars to tiny black holes could keep you alive for 10^33 years or so.16:51
darsieLiving off the Hawking radiation.16:51
spokojni[m]So should we be afraid of covid if even Elon musk will eventually die?16:51
darsieShould you be afraid of sharp knifes?16:51
lastshelldon't feer covid, just take precautions, don't live with fear16:52
darsieOr cars?16:52
spokojni[m]Idk how I am still alive. I am unvacced double covid survivor so now16:52
ArsaneritElon Musk has praised himself for promising to respect German labour law for his factory in Germany.16:52
spokojni[m]Maybe 3rd time I get it will be my last16:52
lastshellhow bad was for you spokojni[m] ?16:54
minthosI think at some point it's more a question of how much energy you have rather than how much time you have - what's the point of more time if the only thing you can do with it is to compute? if increasing the clock rate linearly increases energy expenditure, why not run hot? what is there to experience when the universe has gone completely dark?16:56
minthosmaybe everyone clocks down so communication can still happen despite being a trillion light years apart16:57
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk): NEW: UK reports 3rd confirmed case of new coronavirus variant, along with "dozens" of suspected cases - FT bnonews.com/index.php/2021… → https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/146498433083757363816:59
Arsaneritminthos: http://petrl.org/17:02
Guest2317anynews about omicron variant17:07
Arsaneritplenty17:08
minthosit's already "everywhere" but we knew that yesterday17:08
Guest2317yes17:08
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Some wisdom here on Omicron and DeltaNote how the approach in the UK differs from the US w/r to free, rapid home tests, mitigation measures and the emphasis on boosters twitter.com/devisridhar/st… pic.twitter.com/8DVq6FC7nx → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146498684551569817817:09
ArsaneritAny question on "any news" is meaningless without a temporal qualification.  News since when?17:09
ArsaneritHas anyone developed a home test that can't be easily frauded?  Piece of electronics that identifies the person, the positivity state, and the test reliability (sufficient load)?17:10
Guest2317minthos some people said that we shouldnt worried because it because its harmless(?)17:11
Guest2317😂😂😂17:11
Guest2317but i dont think so17:11
Guest2317*because it is17:12
minthospeople also said covid was harmless17:12
Guest2317hhhhh17:12
Guest2317yep17:12
minthosright now we don't have much data on omicron's harm17:12
Guest2317yes17:13
de-factoeven if it would "only" be as severe as currently circulating variants, if its more contagious it also will cause more infections, hence more severe progressions17:14
de-factoalso if it would be seroevasive it would be able to reinfect breaking through immunity17:15
de-factoon the other hand, maybe previous exposure to an ancestor antigen maybe could have introduced the immune system to it so that it would not freak out so much?17:16
de-factoi think its urgently needed that vaccine manufacturers are forced to finally provide updated versions, they still sell their Wuhan-Hu-1 spike signatures that are two years behind17:18
BrainstormNew from Virology.ws: TWiV 835: Giving thanks for antibodies: TWiV reviews why children should be vaccinated against COVID-19, increased risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 Beta, Gamma, and Delta variant compared to Alpha variant in vaccinated but not recovered individuals, and immune correlates of [... want %more?] → https://www.virology.ws/2021/11/28/twiv-835-giving-thanks-for-antibodies/17:18
de-factothey do help of course, but how much better (and longer protective) could an updated version protect?17:18
de-facto.title https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/17:20
Brainstormde-facto: From www.who.int: Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants17:20
Arsaneritde-facto: but I heard the T-Cells should still work well enough?17:20
de-factoDelta VOC: 11-May-202117:20
de-factoOmicron: VOC: 26-Nov-202117:20
ArsaneritDelta only since May?  I thought it was older.  My memory may be confusing me.17:21
de-factoso where are our Delta updated vaccines?17:21
ArsaneritThe Delta vaccines are still in trial?17:21
de-factountil... Delta is obsolete?17:21
de-factothey are WAY too slow17:21
Arsanerityes, and we may have an Omicron one by the time we get Omega.17:21
ArsaneritHow can those trials be accelerated without compromising safety?17:22
de-factoArsanerit, yeah T-cells react to smaller pieces of the antigen, so they probably will still be able to recognize it even when antibodies would not fit so well anymore17:22
de-factowell we already know the kinetics of their vaccine platform, so maybe starting with MUCH larger trials could accelerate accumulating enough breakthrough infections in the verum arm quickly enough so that they could reach their endpoint sooner?17:24
lastshellso far males over 40 with body aches and headaches are the effect of omicron observed in south africa17:24
de-factoalso they could have use N-fold verum participants (compared to placebo arm) if the expectation value for the ratio of attack rates between verum and placebo would be in the order of N17:25
Arsaneritcan't we design a variant that is more infectious but doesn't cause any symptoms, thereby displacing existing wild variants?17:26
de-factoi think vaccine manufacturers should be forced to update more quickly, otherwise they will just optimize for their profit17:26
de-factoe.g. why not revoke their license if they dont provide updated versions in time?17:26
de-factoArsanerit, hehe yeah a live replicating vaccine strain of SARS-CoV-2, that would be quite awesome, yet also potentially risky17:27
BrainstormNew from LitCovid: (news): A Plausible Link of TMPRSS2/ACE2/AR Signaling to Male Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States. → https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/publication/3483253417:28
de-factodeleting some of the genome sections in SARS-CoV-2 that cause the severe pathogenesis (if they can be identified that is) ok sure, but then optimizing its biological fitness (gain of function)?17:28
de-factothat would be dangerous, because imagine a patient that gets infected with that (replication enhanced) vaccine version and the currently circulating (pathogenic) wild type: in the cells there could be the RNA of both versions present and recombine, e.g. take the enhanced replicaiton capabilities of the vaccine strain and combine it with the pathogenic caps of the wild type17:30
spokojni[m]Have you guys took the leaky vaccine btw? They still offer only for alpha type17:31
de-factobut attenuating a version of it (make it almost unfit for replication, ensure that this is a stable state that can not be easily evaded by a point mutation) maybe could be used for a intranasal vaccine17:31
ArsaneritIs that how some of those variants form?  By patients getting infected with different types who then recombine inside their cell?17:32
Arsaneritspokojni[m]: There's a specific vaccine for alpha?  I haven't heard that.17:32
ArsaneritI thought all approved vaccines were for the original Wuhan strain.17:32
ArsaneritMaybe Winfried Stöckers vaccine ;-)  https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winfried_St%C3%B6cker17:33
de-factoe.g. take the current wild type, delete parts of its genome (that are related to its pathogenesis), use the choice of coding proteins in a de-optimized way (so that the whole sequence is completely different and the attenuated state not only depends on a signle "point of failure") maybe could lead to a stable and permanently attenuated strain17:33
de-factobecause deleting (and not only deactivating) parts of the genome means that this information simply is not there anymore and if the whole sequence is de-optimized (regarding its codons) its attenuation is a property that is wide spread over the whole sequence (hence no single mutation could restore its original fitness)17:35
de-factodisclaimer: thats my own speculation17:35
Arsaneritdo you have any formal training in bioinformatics or virology?17:36
de-factonope17:36
Arsaneritor other relevant disciplines?17:36
de-factonone17:36
* Arsanerit neither17:36
lastshellI hope if omicron is less lethal and become the mainstream17:36
finely[m]Arsanerit: Its assumed that immunocompromised patients get infected and the virus keeps replicating and accruing mutations over time. The best thing we could is vaccinate people with weakened immune systems.17:37
joerg>>we are not going to life forever<< WHAT?!  >>not even musk or bezos are going to live forever<< Ah well, ok, fair enough then for me :-) That's worth it17:37
lastshell:P17:38
de-factomusk is at least trying hard to become immortal with his contributions to humanity17:38
Arsaneritfinely[m]: How are we going to find those in rural Malawi or Madagascar, for example?17:38
lastshellGottlieb says Omicron variant "almost definitely" already in U.S. - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LkeclPLaLc17:40
finely[m]We managed it for polio and smallpox. Not easy though. Targeting available vaccines to those with weakened immune systems where that is practical makes sense.17:43
de-factoan easy, cheap and widespread test that could estimate current protection level also could be quite helpful17:44
spokojni[m]There’s too many people. We shouldn’t save everyone. Covid is ecologically godsend17:44
spokojni[m]IMHO17:44
Arsaneritfinely[m]: those diseases are a lot more serious than covid-19, in particular for young people17:45
spokojni[m]Planet cannot handle 10 billion by 205017:45
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +22173 cases (now 2.6 million), +45 deaths (now 19766) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +2080 cases (now 1.8 million), +9 deaths (now 29682) since 23 hours ago17:45
lastshell10 Billion, I thing will be more17:45
lastshellwe are almost 8 right now17:46
ArsaneritI fear/suspect that by the standards of the problems (diseases or otherwise) poor people in rural Africa are dealing with, they are hard to motivate to consider covid-19 very seriously.17:46
de-factoe.g. identify those that would need another booster to raise their protection level to a threshold were they most likely would be able to kill off an infection with the currently dominant circulating variant in time to avoid latent long lasting ongoing infections that would breed on evasive mutants17:46
spokojni[m]We just have to scale down and build back better or we are all doomed17:46
finely[m]Eco facism conveniently forgets the most damage is done by the richest 1%.17:46
spokojni[m]Sadly17:46
spokojni[m]There should be a limit on how rich you can be tbh17:47
spokojni[m]Money hoarding is like other hoarding illnesses17:47
minthosthe issue isn't wealth, it's how that wealth is created and spent17:47
minthosplant trees and build solar panels, great17:48
minthosbuy a new tv every year and fly everywhere, not so great17:48
ArsaneritIf we can't realistically stop the virus from circulating, how is the prospect of developing mecidine that make infections (mostly) harmless?17:48
Arsaneriti.e. some pills that anyone infected can take to prevent them from becoming sick?17:49
lastshelljust anecdotal: ivermectin. vitamid, zinc, quercitin17:50
lastshelland now we have the merck and the pfizer pills but not sure if is pro or after infection17:50
lastshell*pre17:51
spokojni[m]I take zinc, vitamin d and nac17:52
de-facto[m]None of them are even remotely as effective as vaccinations17:52
de-facto[m]Meds help a bit but dont solve the problem17:52
lastshellfood is medicine but sadly we been eroded the vitamins of the soil17:52
joergthere *is* a üroblem in (let me call it) obscene wealth: it has to be taken from elsewhere and then is causing a shortage of wealth there17:53
spokojni[m]de-facto: vaccines are useless for current virus in circulation17:53
lastshellI will not say useless, maybe not 100% target the virus current variant but still helpful to prevent to get severe desiss17:54
joerglastshell: >>and now we have the merck and the pfizer<< Merck is a bumm er (30% efficiency), Paxlovid (Pfizer) is 5 days post-symptomatic and very promising17:56
jaggzhttps://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/r3nqbx/nacetylcysteine_reduces_the_risk_for_mechanical/17:57
minthosjoerg: wealth is not zero-sum, it can be created. the shortage of wealth is real but it's not caused by obscene wealth, rather it's created by the economic realities that also enable obscene wealth17:58
minthosof course many big companies are evil and exploitative17:58
de-factospokojni[m], why would you think that?18:01
spokojni[m]From cdc18:02
LjLI'm pretty sure the CDC never says "useless" about Delta18:04
de-factoat first we would need to agree on an endpoint (e.g. what to achieve with vaccinations)18:04
ArsaneritAssuming vaccines are probably still fine for T-cell production to prevent severe cases even with Omicron, would a very high vaccination rate (say >95%) be enough to prevent overloading of hospitals?18:04
de-factolets say we would want to address the current issues with severe progressions and load on hospital and healthcare system18:05
ArsaneritPeople are talking about mandatory vaccinations for all (adults).18:05
ArsaneritThat would lead to protests if implemented.18:05
de-factothen even current versions of vaccinations significantly reduce the risk for a given infection that it would progress down into lower respiratory airways and cause a severe (or even fatal) progression18:06
de-factoArsanerit, yes most likely, yet we need data on Omicron for vaccine efficacy against such endpoints (e.g. prevention of severe progression and hospitalization)18:07
ArsaneritI'm sure people are working hard on getting those data as we speak.18:07
ArsaneritAnd given the apparentl number of breakthroughs, they'll probably have such data sooner rather than later…18:07
de-factoafaik the SA experts said they would need 2 weeks18:07
ArsaneritMaybe we need mandatory vaccinations to protect the hospitals :-/18:09
de-factoi am against forcing people into vaccinations, i would rather hope that most would understand their personal benefit (in form of protection against severe progression and for shorter time even transmission) from vaccinations18:12
de-factobut the problem remains: the non-vaccinated are filling up hospitals at an order of magnitude higher rates than the fully vaccinated18:12
minthosban anti-vaxxers from getting treated for anything they could have been vaccinated against18:13
Arsaneritminthos: that's worse than mandatory vaccinations18:13
minthoshow so?18:13
Arsaneritthat goes against the hippocratic oath and opens up the question if smokers should get treated for lung cancers, severely obese people treated for heart attacks, speeding drivers treated for car accidents, etc.18:14
Arsaneritdoctors should decide treatment on medical need alone and nothing else18:14
lastshellall people need to get healtcare regardless of how moronic they are18:15
lastshellimho18:15
minthosall people can't get treatment if the hospitals are full18:16
lastshellbuild more hospitals and inform the people to get the jab18:16
lastshellyou can't force people to get the jab18:17
lastshellI'm vaxxed and booster before any comment back18:17
de-factohttps://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Inzidenz_Impfstatus.html <- vaccine efficacy against hospitalization in 60+ years old people in Germany is ~82% hence 1/5 of the non-vaccinated18:18
Arsanerithmm, 82%, I thought it was higher18:18
de-facto(calculated from their xlsx spread sheet)18:18
de-factoapprox 73% efficacy against symptomatic infection for 60+ year olds, hence 1/4 of the non-vaccinated18:20
Arsaneritlastshell: can we build enough hospitals (and hire staff) for peak capacity with repeated waves with increasingly infectious variants?18:22
de-factoright now we lost a lot of ICU beds in Germany because hospital personnel did quit their jobs, they got too much load on each of them and also are frustrated with treating people that could have been protected by vaccination18:24
lastshellI think we can, but is a complex problem, and I will be afk18:24
de-factohow frustrating must it be if you know that 4 out of 5 non-vaccinated you are fighting for their lives could have been saved as easy as with one vaccination and then hearing them say that they still are anti-vaxx while breathing oxygen (if they are not intubated)?18:25
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Andrew Ewing (@AndrewEwing11): Why do some persist in saying the Spanish flu died out by mutating to a less virulent strain?We actually have no idea why it stoppedCovidiots deny science to downplay omicron Smart people again call for the precautionary principle All this science & we [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/AndrewEwing11/status/146500501271161651718:25
spokojni[m]It's insanity. IMHO we shouldn't hospitalize covid cases anymore, home therapy and morphine if it's obvious that it's going to be EOL of the patient.18:27
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pfizer sues former employee for allegedly stealing Covid-19 vaccine documents → https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2021/11/28/pfizer-trade-secrets-covid19-vaccine-cancer/18:35
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +12927 cases (now 5.0 million), +47 deaths (now 133674), +512592 tests (now 118.3 million) since 23 hours ago18:35
de-facto.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.10.21266166v1.full-text18:41
Brainstormde-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Unexposed populations and potential COVID-19 burden in European countries | medRxiv18:41
de-factodoes not look good for Germany :/18:42
de-facto.title https://impfdashboard.de/ only 86% over 60 year olds are vaccinated in Germany, leaving 3.4M of them unprotected18:44
Brainstormde-facto: From impfdashboard.de: COVID-19 Impfdashboard18:44
joerg>><Arsanerit> Maybe we need mandatory vaccinations to protect the hospitals<< too little, too slow.18:52
de-factowe need a hard lockdown again18:52
de-factosad but true18:53
spokojni[m]we need to stop hospitalizing covid patients!18:53
Arsaneritjoerg: not for the current wave, but for the long haul18:53
Arsaneritif we stop hospitalising anyone then the hospitals won't be overloaded </s>18:53
joergso, for next autumn. We may discuss this in March or April, I guess18:54
Arsaneritspokojni[m]: that's a good way to stop anyone from getting tested18:54
spokojni[m]of course, if we stop hospitalizing covid patients. In my country they reassigned all hospitals just for covid patients, it's insanity.18:54
de-factowhich country is that?18:54
spokojni[m]Croatia18:54
de-factooh how is the situation there currently?18:55
spokojni[m]You can't enter hospital without test or covid pass. If you test positive you're being sent to covid department 1st, no matter what health issue you have18:55
de-factostats look like 3rd wave is about to surpass first two in both cases and deaths right now18:56
de-facto47% fully vaccinated18:57
spokojni[m]Makes no sense, it's going to be worse than it was when we had no vaccines...18:57
de-factoDelta is worse indeed18:57
spokojni[m]Omicron even more18:58
spokojni[m]We'll be all dead by the end of the alphabet.... 😥18:58
de-factowe will see, too early to tell, but potentially it can indeed be worse18:58
spokojni[m]And everyone else will go mad. This started when I was 29, now I am almost 32 and there's no end in sght!19:00
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Sandra Ciesek (@CiesekSandra): Heute haben wir vier weitere hochgradige Verdachtsfälle mit #omicron. Alles Reiserückkehrer und mit entsprechenden Auffälligkeiten in der Mutations-PCR. Sequenzierung folgt. Danke an allen KollegInnen, die den ganzen Sonntag im Labor gearbeitet haben. @StM_Klose → https://twitter.com/CiesekSandra/status/146501427073588838819:03
de-factowe all are in this together, the more agreement and cohesion in collaboration to keep it under control the less impact it will have on everyones everyday life19:04
de-factoi think this is an opportunity for the global community to evolve, to find a sustainable way for a globalized society19:06
Arsaneritexperience so far shows that opportunity is not taken19:07
de-factoyeah thats why its going to continue until this opportunity is taken19:08
ublxthe beatings will continue until morale improves19:08
de-factofrom a long term perspective this may even be a good thing19:08
de-factowe may right now be on the edge to finding a truly sustainable way for establishing a globalized society that is able to last for many thousands of years without being taken out by another much more deadly pathogen19:10
de-factowhat will history books write about our time in 100 years from now?19:11
de-factowill they write that we evolved or that we let the pathogen evolve?19:11
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing): 📍”MARKED CHANGE”—In South Africa 🇿🇦: “Young people, in their 20s to late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65% are not vaccinated—most of the rest are only half-vaccinated”. [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/146501582904145101419:13
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): We are our own worst enemy in more ways than one. An exceptional new review of our dysregulated immune response to Covid @NatRevImmunol nature.com/articles/s4157… pic.twitter.com/j68Qkbxbap → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146502279525600461719:22
de-facto.title https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/south-african-scientists-brace-for-wave-propelled-by-omicron19:24
Brainstormde-facto: From www.pbs.org: South African scientists brace for wave propelled by omicron | PBS NewsHour Weekend19:24
de-facto"“We’re seeing a marked change in the demographic profile of patients with COVID-19,” Rudo Mathivha, head of the intensive care unit at Soweto’s Baragwanath Hospital, told an online press briefing."19:25
de-facto"“Young people, in their 20s to just over their late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65% are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated,” said Mathivha. “I’m worried that as the numbers go up, the public health care facilities will become overwhelmed.”"19:25
spokojni[m]oh no, we are all going to die19:26
de-facto"What looked like a cluster infection among some university students in Pretoria ballooned into hundreds of new cases and then thousands, first in the capital city and then to nearby Johannesburg, South Africa’s largest city."19:26
spokojni[m]daaaamn, we're done19:26
de-facto"Studying the surge, scientists identified the new variant that diagnostic tests indicate is likely responsible for as many as 90% of the new cases, according to South Africa’s health officials. Early studies show that it has a reproduction rate of 2 — meaning that every person infected by it is likely to spread it to two other people."19:26
de-factoi guess they mean Rt ~ 2 hence doubling each T2 = 4d Ln(2)/Ln(Rt) ~ 4d19:27
de-facto"The new variant has a high number of mutations that appear to make it more transmissible and help it evade immune responses."19:27
de-facto"“This variant is mostly in Gauteng province, the Johannesburg area of South Africa. But we’ve got clues from diagnostic tests … that suggest that this variant is already all over South Africa,” said Hanekom, who is also co-chair of the South African COVID Variant Research Consortium."19:28
de-facto"The new variant appears to be spreading most quickly among those who are unvaccinated. Currently, only about 40% of adult South Africans are vaccinated, and the number is much lower among those in the 20 to 40-year-old age group."19:29
de-facto^^ i would love to see data on that19:29
spokojni[m]I would like to witness that, must be surreal to watch 20 year old choking like that... sad19:30
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +36616 cases (now 10.2 million), +51 deaths (now 145218) since 23 hours ago19:31
BrainstormNew from NPR: Fauci says the omicron variant will inevitably appear in the U.S.: The omicron variant has not been detected in the U.S., but Dr. Anthony Fauci says it is certain to be at some point. Fauci and Dr. Francis Collins [... want %more?] → https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/11/28/1059623783/fauci-says-the-omicron-variant-will-inevitably-appear-in-the-u-s19:32
de-factoMedian age of population SA: 28y, Croatia 43.9y, Germany 47.8y according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age19:33
de-factowith previous variants (pre-Alpha iirc) there was a doubling of fatalities with each increase of age by 5.75y19:34
de-factoexample IFR(47.8) / IFR(28) =  2^(47,8÷5,75)  ÷ 2^(28÷5,75) ~ 10,9-fold19:37
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Third Omicron case detected in UK, face masks compulsory from Tuesday → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/third-omicron-case-uk-face-masks-compulsory-7646366/19:41
de-factoOmicron even already entered Australia https://twitter.com/NSWHealth/status/146483704929118618019:47
de-factoa gigantic mistake of them to open up for travelers again19:47
spybertMaybe it is time to accept that the age of international tourism has ended.19:49
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity): Looking forward to participating in the upcoming @htTweets Leadership Summit - COVID Session with @devisridhar. #htls2021 youtube.com/watch?v=YXIVzd… pic.twitter.com/EwfzARrhmv → https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/146502767541265203519:51
squirrela cool article on B.1.1.529 https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/new-concerning-variant-b1152919:53
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK clinical trials begin on nasal spray researchers say can prevent all COVID variants → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r4b7k2/uk_clinical_trials_begin_on_nasal_spray/20:00
Zogatribeanecdotal evidence suggests that Omicron symptoms are "mild".20:01
de-factonice article20:02
de-factowe just dont have enough data for that, i do not believe this20:03
de-factobtw antigen tests do work for Omicron https://twitter.com/CiesekSandra/status/146492573474136883720:03
Zogatribeif Omicron symptoms aren't mild then we are f**ked20:04
LjLany important news today? i am kind of in a coma20:04
Zogatribeactually Omicron symptoms are "very mild" which is good news20:06
spokojni[m]Are you okay? I am felly shitty too, had a headache from blocked sinuses, and it hurts my head when I cough20:06
spokojni[m]somethings broken up there20:07
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The schematic mechanism of action for the anti-Covid pills, which should maintain efficacy vs Omicron and all variantsscience.org/content/articl… @ScienceMagazine pic.twitter.com/mB8nfRx1Em → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146503257190597427220:10
ZogatribeWHO says it is not yet clear if Omicron causes more severe disease20:11
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD 🧬 (@michaelzlin): so they don't mutate away good genes. But we're not talking about giving everyone molnupiravir forever and mutating SARSCoV2 indefinitely. Viruses can collect a few nonharmful mutations in the molnupiravir patient then hop to someone else. They [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/146504018148928307420:38
de-facto.title https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-set-announce-findings-omicron-cases-among-safrica-travellers-2021-11-28/20:41
Brainstormde-facto: From www.reuters.com: Dutch find 13 Omicron cases among S.Africa travellers | Reuters20:41
eckssure hope this new variant doesn't fuck with my christmas plans20:42
de-facto2 airplanes 600 passengers, 61 test positive, 13 carry Omicron, 539 test negative directly after having arrived20:43
de-factoso around 2% of the passengers tested positive for Omicron, why would this be different on other airplanes?20:43
Arsaneritecks: What are your Christmas plans?20:44
ecksi live in sweden and my family lives in finland, so i'm flying there and back20:44
de-factowhy arent ALL passengers escorted into off-site mandatory quarantine centers for 2 weeks ?20:44
ArsaneritMy Christmas plans are to stay home.20:44
ArsaneritI have never visited my family for Christmas.  Why would I visit them exactly when everybody else is also travelling?  It's irrational.20:45
de-factomy Christmas plans are: its canceled again20:45
ArsaneritEven without a pandemic it's the most impractical time possible to visit family.20:45
ecksbecause that's when everyone is off work/school?20:45
ecksand because celebrating christmas is a cozy tradition?20:45
ArsaneritChristmas is on a weekend.20:46
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +744 cases (now 1.8 million) since 20 hours ago20:46
ArsaneritTherefore, no more people are off work than on other weekends (this year).20:46
ecksfor more than two days20:46
ArsaneritThere are school holidays, yes.20:46
ArsaneritBut not many workplaces close entirely between Christmas and New Year AFAIK.20:47
ecksmany people have extra days off before and after christmas20:47
ArsaneritSpring and summer is a nice time to visit family.20:47
ArsaneritCertainly in the north.  Long summer evenings under the mosquito net.20:48
ArsaneritSafer too from a covid point of view.20:48
ecksmeh20:48
ArsaneritYou could gather at Easter instead if you're religious enough to care about religious celebrations.20:48
ecksflights are almost always full no matter when you travel20:48
ecksor, both Christmas and Easter20:48
ArsaneritThen take a ferry.20:48
ecksimpractical and time-consuming, and more expensive20:49
ArsaneritOn a full ferry you still have a lot more place than on a full flight, and you can spend much of it outside.20:49
ecksoutside on a ferry in the Baltic sea in winter? lol okay20:49
ArsaneritNo, at easter.20:49
ArsaneritAs a matter of principle, I never look at flight prices or times for travel within Europe, because more environmentally friendly alternatives are available.20:50
ecksthe daily mean in March-April is like 4 degrees celsius20:50
ecksadd in the wind on the sea and it's a completely unrealistic scenario20:50
ArsaneritTaking the ferry is a completely unrealistic scenario?20:50
de-factobtw if they would let out 539 people that tested negative today and shared a airplane as well as queues and non-ventilated rooms (30% NOT even wearing a fucking mask) with those 13 cases of Omicron (most likely highly contagious) they would have a HUGE leak (even 5 days quarantine time is not mitigating that), they should be forced into at least 14 days of quarantine if not more20:50
ArsaneritYou can book your own cabin, that's a distancing nobody can afford on a plane.20:51
ecks"spending much of [the time on the ferry] outside" certainly is20:51
ArsaneritI'm not suggesting to sleep outside on the ferry :)20:51
de-factoits their fault, if they risked traveling they would have to assume something like this could happen20:51
ecksor, i could be double-vaccinated and wear an FFP2 mask while everyone else wears at least a surgical mask and be done with it?20:51
ArsaneritYou could.  Christmas is still a poor time to travel, even worse in pandemic times.20:53
ArsaneritProbably less cases at Easter 2022 than at Christmas 2021.20:53
de-factomasks and vaccination lower the risk of infection but dont prevent mutant imports, intercontinental tourism should be globally banned forever as quarantine is not going to be implemented properly (as it may be the case for animals)20:53
ArsaneritAnd even less cases at midsummer 2022.20:53
ecksyeah but I'm not waiting another four months to see family and friends20:53
Arsaneritde-facto: hmm, I hiked across the Europe-Asia border in the northern Urals in 2019, nearest other human was probably 10 km on the European side and much more than that on the Asian side, seems that would be safe enough.20:54
ArsaneritEven mid-January is likely safer than Christmas due to travel being not as busy.20:54
ArsaneritOr at some family birthday or other family event that isn't at the same time as everybody else.20:55
ecksgiven the flights are almost always full the difference is neglible20:55
ArsaneritYou don't think more people travel near Christmas than at other times?20:55
eckscertainly20:55
ecksbut there's only so many people that can fit in a single plane20:56
de-factonone of the travelers hat the intention to import a mutant, they think its their right to enjoy holidays in foreign places on another continent, they want to be entertained and socialize, yet they forget what kind of load they put with such a selfish attitude on all of their target communities, a load that will now bring us the next mutant and distribute it worldwide20:56
ecksi flew last thursday and sunday and both flights were almost full20:56
joergecks: make that triple-vaccinated and FFP320:56
ecksdon't see how the risk is any higher if i take a full flight on december 15 or february 1820:57
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Linsey Marr (@linseymarr): Great 🧵on humidity and virus transmission. 40-60% RH is ideal (and avoid condensation). Too dry means 1) weaker immune response, 2) virus that survives better, 3) smaller aerosols that can stay in the air longer. Op-ed by @VirusesImmunity @j_g_allen me: [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/146504465201752883820:57
de-factothis will go on for as long as airtraveling is tolerated and passengers are happily spreading all the mutants around the globe20:57
de-factoits a question about attitude20:58
darsieCould a home covid test be wrong if the swab was extracted in table salt solution that contains stuff like potassium iodide or sodium ferrocyanide?20:59
de-factobtw being double vaccinated does NOT mean that one could not be 1) infected in the upper respiratory tract 2) transmit that infection to some other susceptible21:03
de-factodepending on the time since completing vaccination series it may lower the probability of developing an infection though (and also the probability for it descending down in to the lower respiratory tract) and by clearing it sooner the duration of infectious viral shedding21:04
eckscertainly not, but i'm not going to self-isolate for the next 10 years if i don't have any symptoms21:04
Arsaneritit's safer to stay home21:06
de-factothe problem with it is that allowing free traveling of fully vaccinated without testing or quarantine means that those variants that have a higher probability of evading vaccine immunity also will be selected for being carried into new (fully vaccinated) cohorts, hence the problematic mutants are more mobile in such a system21:06
ArsaneritSweden and Finland share a land border.21:07
de-factotesting may not be enough as the false negative rate in the time directly after contamination will be near 100%21:07
de-factoi am speaking about the generic case21:08
de-factobut where would one draw a line?21:08
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Omicron COVID-19 variant: Pfizer, BioNTech say vaccine could be reworked in 100 days to counter strain → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r4cvty/omicron_covid19_variant_pfizer_biontech_say/21:16
de-factohttps://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/ <-- they seem to observe news and collect reports about cases of OMICRON quite well so far21:17
ArsaneritI don't think one can draw an effective line at any land border21:20
Arsaneritand evidently politicians don't want to draw a line at other borders either21:20
de-factothats the point, they dont want to21:21
Zogatribehttps://twitter.com/AP/status/146505414864744040221:25
spokojni[m]omg we are all going to die21:34
BrainstormUpdates for France: +68866 cases (now 7.7 million), +57 deaths (now 119875) since 11 hours ago21:35
de-factospokojni[m], of course did you think we were immortal?21:41
de-factodont panic, its going to be mostly fine, yet we may have avoided some of the problems we are going to face21:41
trbpnah nothing but a 3rd 4th and 5th boostering wont change21:46
trbpbecause it is a nice machinery to been used by those profiteurs fired by the ultimate fear each and everyone has21:47
trbpsurvival21:47
de-factolets wait and observe how this develops, fear is not a good advisor21:50
de-factowe just need to give it some time and avoid importing this until we know more about its properties21:51
Arsaneritsome countries do have "Arriving passengers are required to show a negative PCR test and quarantine for 14 days at a government facility at their own expense."21:53
LjLspokojni[m], i'm sorry. i have a bit of a sore throat and feeling quite tired, for now nothing worse than that21:56
trbpArsanerit: and let me guess even such countries have sooner or later the same problems?21:56
LjLZogatribe, it really is not yet clear... yes i've also hear anecdotal reports that it's "milder", but we really don't have information. it will take, i think, a couple of weeks before we have some reliable reports on severity21:56
Arsanerittrbp: probably, this example was from Laos which certainly doesn't have well-sealed land borders21:57
trbpLjL: are those reports still coming from the same reliable sources we had until? ;)21:57
LjLtrbp, probably. what i've seen come from a local doctor in SA21:57
Zogatribewell the SA cohort in question were mostly students I believe and the young in general have less severe symptoms22:00
de-factoLjL, i hope you feeling better soon, maybe drinking a nice warm tea and/or a schnapps could help a bit?22:03
sdfgsdfgwhat's poppin22:05
de-factoI sometimes get a (one) shot of "Melissa Spirit" containing 80% ethanol, it burns like hell :P22:06
sdfgsdfgLjL you'll be alrighttt hope its nothing serious eh, try chinese tea a bit milk and honey that's what I do22:07
sdfgsdfgin case it's covid I'd keep vitamins and air humidifier ready22:08
LjLi'm sure i'll be fine, i didn't sleep well, i don't treat myself very good22:08
LjL%title https://www.reuters.com/world/new-coronavirus-variant-omicron-keeps-spreading-australia-detects-cases-2021-11-28/    i keep seeing things like this22:10
BrainstormLjL: From www.reuters.com: Omicron variant detected in more countries as scientists race to find answers | Reuters22:10
LjLdo we have, like, an updated tracker page of where cases have been found, how many, all info?22:11
de-facto.title https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/ you mean like that one?22:13
Brainstormde-facto: From bnonews.com: Tracking COVID-19 variant Omicron - BNO News22:13
random-jellyfishLjL https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker22:14
LjLrandom-jellyfish, thanks, but lol at the url22:15
random-jellyfishyeah it was started before the official naming22:15
LjLuhm it mentions BNO News... de-facto do i remember wrong or did BNO News also have a tracker kinda thing?22:15
LjLrandom-jellyfish, can't blame them i guess, a lot of "twitter experts" just went ahead and called it Nu22:15
de-factoyeah the one i linked and iirc also one we discussed quite some time ago, in early 2020 where reinfections were listed22:16
LjLimportantly if you scroll to the bottom of https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker you'll see very few elderly people have had it22:16
LjLwhich means we don't really know whether it's mild for them22:16
LjLde-facto, i mean an Omicron-related tracker22:17
de-factoyeah22:17
LjLde-facto, oh sorry i didn't notice it as i wasn't highlighted22:19
de-factohttps://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/reinfection-tracker-suspected-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/22:20
LjLuff, zotero is offline22:20
lastshellLjL I think zotero is back online22:33
LjL-MatrixWell it wasn't letting me add the tracker with a server offline error22:34
LjL-MatrixI'll try again later 'cause now I'm dining :p22:34
de-factoBuon appetito!22:42
random-jellyfishmake sure your food is not from South Africa22:45
spokojni[m]random-jellyfish why for?22:50
random-jellyfishjust joking22:50
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Immune dysregulation and immunopathology induced by SARS-CoV-2 and related coronaviruses — are we our own worst enemy?"severe disease associated with human coronaviruses is mediated by both dysregulated host immune responses and active viral [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/146507284591509913722:50
spokojni[m]It was probably imported months ago22:51
BrainstormNew from NPR: Omicron variant spreads to Australia and more of Europe: President Biden received a briefing from his medical task force, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, who said that "inevitably" the omicron variant will turn up in the U.S. → https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/11/28/1059640113/omicron-variant-spreads-to-australia-and-more-of-europe23:00
LjLde-facto, grazie :P23:10
LjLalthough i'm back23:10
LjLlet's see if zotero is also23:10
LjLprobably not as the local app doesn't sync23:11
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: South Africa's president calls for lifting of Omicron travel bans → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r4flx5/covid_south_africas_president_calls_for_lifting/23:19
MerlinMp[m]<spokojni[m]> "omg we are all going to die" <- You said you had covid twice, what blood group do you have?23:23
LjLde-facto, so much for milder, eh?23:29
de-factokeep in mind that those lists are pulled together from anecdotal reports and there is a selection bias for symptomatic or severe cases, the asymptomatic ones most likely would sail under the radar (hence no stories about those unless there was screening with regular PCR tests)23:40
BrainstormUpdates for India: +6226 cases (now 34.6 million), +20 deaths (now 468574) since 18 hours ago23:40
de-factoall such things we WOULD know if regular mandatory PCR testing was established23:40
squirrelis the covid situation ever getting better?23:53
squirrelbroadly speaking23:53
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Europe is accelerating 3rd shotsft.com/content/260c3d…"As of January 10, travellers entering the EU will have to either have received a booster dose or have received their 2nd jab no more than 9 months ago,  The EU ... boosters to be recognised in vaccine [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146509033540762419423:57
joerg>><darsie> Could a home covid test be wrong if ...<< up to anybody's guess23:57
de-factosquirrel, well it looks like vaccinations work quite well in preventing severe disease progressions, so maybe they introduce the appropriate parts of the immune system (t-cells?) to the s-protein and thereby preventing it from freaking out when the real pathogen is seen23:59
de-factoi guess we are quite lucky that at least that works (preventing 4 out of 5 hospitalizations for over 60 year olds)23:59

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