| de-facto | yep the number of DNA copies should be something like N(cycles) = N(0) * 2 ^ cycles >= N_threshold | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): A new demographic trend is seen with Omicron in SA: The youngest children are hospitalized. As O is in community spread & catching speed around Norway, I here suggest an early Xmas holiday or online schooling as a precautionary measure. The NIPH [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1469439239146328064 | 00:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Efficacy of a Nasal Spray Containing Iota-Carrageenan in the Postexposure Prophylaxis of COVID-19 in Hospital Personnel Dedicated to Patients Care with COVID-19 Disease → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rdl021/efficacy_of_a_nasal_spray_containing/ | 00:10 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.dovepress.com/efficacy-of-a-nasal-spray-containing-iota-carrageenan-in-the-postexpos-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-IJGM | 00:11 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.dovepress.com: Nasal spray containing Iota-Carrageenan & COVID-19 | IJGM | 00:11 |
| de-facto | "A total of 394 individuals were randomly assigned to receive I-C or placebo. Both treatment groups had similar baseline characteristics. The incidence of COVID-19 differs significantly between subjects receiving the nasal spray with I-C (2 of 196 [1.0%]) and those receiving placebo (10 of 198 [5.0%]). Relative risk reduction: 79.8% (95% CI 5.3 to 95.4; p=0.03). Absolute risk reduction: 4% (95% CI 0.6 to 7.4)." | 00:11 |
| de-facto | LjL, ^^ | 00:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Argentina: +3573 cases (now 5.4 million), +29 deaths (now 116748) since 21 hours ago — St. Vin. and Gren.: +47 cases (now 5692), +1 deaths (now 77) since 2 days ago | 00:16 |
| lastshell | https://ibb.co/Bnyz6jc after 1 month of 3rd dose omicron is neutralized accourding to the CDC | 00:17 |
| lastshell | src: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8pOfUhyUNM not sure where are the slides | 00:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Iota-carrageenan and xylitol inhibit SARS-CoV-2 in Vero cell culture → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rdl1uv/iotacarrageenan_and_xylitol_inhibit_sarscov2_in/ | 00:20 |
| LjL-Matrix | de-facto: oh cool, is that the recently concluded British trial? | 00:20 |
| LjL-Matrix | Almost too uncannily similar efficacy to the Argentinian trial! | 00:21 |
| LjL-Matrix | Lol and Brainstorm doesn't want to feel excluded | 00:22 |
| LjL-Matrix | But I think that's an old study, probably just now been finally peer reviewed, it rings a bell | 00:23 |
| LjL-Matrix | Received: July 18, 2020; Accepted: November 1, 2021; Published: November 19, 2021 | 00:23 |
| LjL-Matrix | Peer review certainly takes a while these days :p | 00:23 |
| LjL-Matrix | de-facto: wait that *is* the Argentinian study :p | 00:34 |
| de-facto | oh well then it passed peer review and was rediscovered :P | 00:35 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/repository-of-omicron-biological-materials-for-in-vitro-and-in-vivo-studies | 00:37 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.who.int: SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant assays and animal models study tracker | 00:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Lancet (Online): [Health Policy] Governing the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator: towards greater participation, transparency, and accountability: The Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator (ACT-A) is a multistakeholder initiative quickly constructed in the early months of the [... want %more?] → https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02344-8/fulltext | 00:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bolivia: +1746 cases (now 549638), +5 deaths (now 19281) since a day ago — Tunisia: +241 cases (now 719247), +3 deaths (now 25419), +4835 tests (now 3.2 million) since 23 hours ago — Mayotte: +45 cases (now 21088) since 3 days ago | 00:41 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiS6c-eBNKA | 00:48 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.youtube.com: Origin, transmissibility, severity: What we know about the Omicron variant so far? | COVID19 Special - YouTube | 00:48 |
| de-facto | Emma Hodcroft in interview | 00:48 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/omicron-outbreak-norway-christmas-party-is-biggest-outside-s-africa-authorities-2021-12-03/ | 01:00 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.reuters.com: Omicron outbreak at Norway Christmas party is biggest outside S. Africa -authorities | Reuters | 01:00 |
| de-facto | what could possibly go wrong when intercontinental tourists are allowed to enter without quarantine and party? | 01:01 |
| de-facto | i really do hope its going to be Omicron that ends intercontinental tourism forever | 01:01 |
| de-facto | We should never forget how it came into our countries and ask ourselves if we are willing to tolerate that in the future, because it will happen again and again until intercontinental passenger travel is ended permanently. | 01:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Paraguay: +70 cases (now 463650), +8 deaths (now 16500), +2878 tests (now 2.0 million) since a day ago — Somalia: +23 cases (now 23074), +2 deaths (now 1333) since 4 days ago — Eq. Guinea: +13 cases (now 13612), +20850 tests (now 263190) since 4 days ago — United Kingdom: +58308 cases (now 10.8 million) since 21 hours ago | 01:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ivory Coast: +19 cases (now 61882), +4062 tests (now 1.2 million) since a day ago — Switzerland: +30 deaths (now 11783) since 23 hours ago | 01:31 |
| de-facto | .title https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3981711 | 01:32 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From papers.ssrn.com: Breakthrough Infections with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Despite Booster Dose of mRNA Vaccine by Constanze Kuhlmann, Carla Konstanze Mayer, Mathilda Claassen, Tongai G. Maponga, Andrew D. Sutherland, [...] | 01:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Josiah Grindrod (@JT_Grindrod): This won't stop people from saying omicron has peaked in SA though. twitter.com/Goof_2/status/… → https://twitter.com/JT_Grindrod/status/1469464473299603456 | 01:35 |
| ublx | de-facto: "... when intercontinental tourists ..." <-- as i understood it, the SA to Norway route was a business trip, not tourism | 01:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Bad news for many of the monoclonal antibodies; but a few are still standing!biorxiv.org/content/10.110… pic.twitter.com/Tcl7oEufAt → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1469469131200159745 | 01:54 |
| ublx | but anyway an eternal cessation of tourism seems like a daydream; why not dream about engineered omnivalent omnipotent rapidly reconfiguring immune systems instead | 01:55 |
| de-facto | ok should have said end intercontinental passenger travel without strictly enforced mandatory quarantine | 02:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Delta and Omicron in SA.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/s… pic.twitter.com/rq7pibJZok → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1469472013563662339 | 02:03 |
| de-facto | well the engineered omnivalent omnipotent rapidly reconfiguring immune system does not even seem to work after the fact we are fully aware of the pathogen variant about to impact into our population despite being in possess of the technology to create immunity against specific antigens | 02:03 |
| ublx | give it 500 years, then we'll see about versatile omnivalent immune systems | 02:04 |
| de-facto | how could this then be expected to contain unknown pathogen variants spreads *prior* to them becoming known for being problematic as in the case of Omicron | 02:04 |
| ublx | spose in 500 years we'll have vaccine printers in the local library if we haven't cracked reprogrammable immune systems | 02:06 |
| LjL | i don't necessarily suppose that in 500 years "we" | 02:06 |
| de-facto | humans simply are not capable of handling a biohazard challenge at all, not even a tiny bit (from observing how selfish and short sighted they act 2 years after becoming aware of the thread) despite having the technology of doing so, hence pathogen spread must be prevented by just not tolerating humans to travel between continents | 02:07 |
| de-facto | that is my point of view and it will not change until reality convinces me of the contrary | 02:07 |
| ublx | but de-facto, who intolerates the intoleraters? | 02:07 |
| de-facto | it does not matter, all what matters is that pathogen spread does not take place globally again and again | 02:08 |
| LjL | that is patently not *all* that matters | 02:09 |
| LjL | you could just shoot every infected person and throw them into the ocean | 02:09 |
| de-facto | this is a demonstration how extremely vulnerable we became by gaining the fast global travel capability | 02:09 |
| LjL | clearly i would be against that | 02:09 |
| LjL | so there are various things that matter | 02:09 |
| de-facto | to me this is extremely alarming, not because of SARS-CoV-2, but because it shows possible transmission paths and dynamics and the complete incapability of humanity to control that | 02:11 |
| ublx | you're not wrong, it is alarming | 02:11 |
| ublx | but permanent global lock down seems like a kinda antipolitical solution to a problem of political immaturity | 02:12 |
| LjL | what is also alarming is that we seem to all be going batshit insane each in different ways. you talk about societal cohesion but just about no one in society would agree with your views on travel no matter how hard you tried to convince them... | 02:13 |
| lastshell | I suggested the global lockdown a while a go, but I'm just one human with no political power | 02:13 |
| de-facto | i desperately hope that SARS-CoV-2 is the opportunity to learn how to control such scenarios because the next pandemic may be with a more problematic pathogen | 02:13 |
| LjL | lastshell, note *permanent* though | 02:14 |
| lastshell | probaly the yeah no permanent just 1 month or so | 02:14 |
| de-facto | i did not speak of a permanent global lockdown | 02:14 |
| de-facto | i meant preventing fast global spread by compartmentalization of the population and never travel between compartments without quarantine | 02:15 |
| LjL | yes, that's the same as lockdown, only on a global scale | 02:15 |
| Telvana | There is the giant looming issue of global trade. If you locked down the continents you folks seem to forget the ramifications of doing so. | 02:15 |
| lastshell | de-facot the problem is human nature is selfish | 02:15 |
| LjL | instead of being prevented from leaving my municipality, i'm prevented from travelling to another country | 02:16 |
| de-facto | yes | 02:16 |
| Telvana | How do you solve the issue of 14 days quarantine in a country, that's not exactly going to work for jet set business types. | 02:16 |
| de-facto | and of course global logistics for goods would need to continue, just not with living beings | 02:17 |
| Telvana | I have personally landed in France on Tuesday, and taken off again back for America on Wednesday, and done the same with Japan. Good luck doing that if you're stuck waiting 14 days in a quarantine camp. | 02:17 |
| LjL | Telvana, i think he wants 30 days last i checked | 02:17 |
| Telvana | LjL: Even 30 days is enough to wreck the global economy. | 02:17 |
| de-facto | and the sad thing is we already know that, as import quarantine is mandatory for animals | 02:18 |
| Telvana | It's not going to happen, we long ago screwed that pooch | 02:18 |
| Telvana | March 2020 if we were talking about this I'd have said awesome, let's do it | 02:18 |
| lastshell | indeed, people are tired of covid, let's say covid fatigue | 02:18 |
| Telvana | Now? Nope. Not to mention the cat is already out of the bag, you'll lock down the continents for 30 days, and guess what? 14 days after you open then up again ... here comes more cases | 02:19 |
| Telvana | it's wishy-washy and unrealistic | 02:19 |
| LjL | Telvana, sorry, what i meant was he means for the *quarantine* to last 30 days, not 14 :P | 02:19 |
| Telvana | LjL: even worse | 02:19 |
| de-facto | so thanks to people traveling globally just like that we 1) initially spread SARS-CoV-2 from Wuhan, 2) spread D614G, 3) spread Alpha, 4) spread Delta, 5) spread Omicron, 6) .... | 02:19 |
| de-facto | will this continue ad infinitum ? | 02:20 |
| Telvana | de-facto: and it's going to become endemic no matter how much delaying we do. | 02:20 |
| Telvana | Covid0 is impossible and is an absolute pipe dream at this point | 02:20 |
| de-facto | well what about the next pathogen then? | 02:20 |
| Telvana | Call me pessimistic, but logic would dictate we die | 02:20 |
| Telvana | It's been proven in this pandemic that people are generally selfish, undereducated, and foolish. | 02:21 |
| de-facto | if anyone worldwide of 10 billion people becomes infected with whatever nasty pathogen got pandemic potential, will we all again have to sit in one boat together and have it becoming endemic? | 02:21 |
| de-facto | what for would be need tourism or business travel? | 02:21 |
| de-facto | we have the technology for instant global communication, why would people need to travel without quarantine? | 02:21 |
| Telvana | Because you can't do everything via Zoom | 02:22 |
| de-facto | why not? | 02:22 |
| Telvana | Because we're humans and we require human interaction | 02:22 |
| lastshell | secks | 02:22 |
| de-facto | if you really need to go somewhere the personal price for that would be to endure quarantine two times | 02:22 |
| Telvana | de-facto: no. | 02:22 |
| LjL | no. | 02:22 |
| de-facto | because we not all should pay the price globally for some people to do that | 02:22 |
| lastshell | the main issue is humans are social by nature | 02:23 |
| de-facto | yes and we can be, just not globally | 02:23 |
| de-facto | it never was the case | 02:23 |
| LjL | you know what's the worst thing humans do that IRKS ME SO MUCH because it spreads the virus? | 02:23 |
| LjL | they breahte | 02:23 |
| LjL | they never stop breathing except when it's too late | 02:23 |
| de-facto | we are social beings, locally not globally | 02:23 |
| LjL | it's so annoying | 02:23 |
| ublx | down with breathing | 02:23 |
| lastshell | yeah but people don't like to wear masks (again selfish humans) | 02:23 |
| Telvana | Well, the Government screwed that up (at least in the USA) | 02:24 |
| lastshell | I thing we need some sort of spray to block droplets/air | 02:24 |
| LjL | i was all cozy with my mask today, except i touched it too much at some point because i forgot it wasn't a scarf | 02:24 |
| Telvana | The CDC was like "Oh, if you're vaccinated you don't need masks" the second they did that EVERYONE quit wearing one | 02:24 |
| lastshell | CDC is a clownshow | 02:24 |
| Telvana | And now we'll never get people to wear them again, that shit sailed | 02:25 |
| lastshell | that is why many anti-vaxxers are in usa | 02:25 |
| LjL | they were in the USA before too, they didn't move there, mostly | 02:25 |
| Telvana | The CDC is too politically motivated | 02:25 |
| lastshell | FAUCI is the science don't critic science!!! | 02:25 |
| lastshell | yeah is very political | 02:26 |
| Telvana | Fauci is weird, but he's not the debil | 02:26 |
| Telvana | The issue I see with the CDC Is that they are so large they move like molasses and take entirely too long to make any kind of a decision on anything | 02:26 |
| Telvana | And then when they do, they somehow screw it up | 02:26 |
| de-facto | its the free global traveling without mandatory quarantine that is the root of all the problems we are observing right now, hence it will continue unless the cause of these effects is removed | 02:27 |
| ublx | i have some room for skepticism about fauci's integrity, or at least his capacity for politicking and dissembling | 02:27 |
| Telvana | de-facto: they won't be, if you want to figure out some way to pay for global commerce to continue without actually commercing, then do so | 02:27 |
| Telvana | but otherwise, it's not going to happen | 02:27 |
| de-facto | maybe it will require a few more mutants for people to begin to understand that this is really the case | 02:27 |
| Telvana | doubtful, de-facto, I've seen people on their death beds that refuse to believe it's real | 02:28 |
| ublx | unless it goes the way of the spanish flu, de-facto. ie, it peters out | 02:28 |
| de-facto | yeah hence it will continue for a few more years, every mutant of this will become more aggressive most likely as fitness is optimized in parallel globally | 02:28 |
| lastshell | spanish flu is now common cold ? | 02:28 |
| LjL | ublx, aren't the latter the things you can't do if you have the former | 02:28 |
| Telvana | ublx: people in here will argue to your death that it won't happen that way, they keep saying "their experts" say that COVID will likely continue to get worse, which makes no logical sense | 02:29 |
| LjL | lastshell, no, it's still a flu | 02:29 |
| LjL | things don't magically become the common cold | 02:29 |
| ublx | LjL: uhm? | 02:29 |
| lastshell | but is less lethal ? | 02:29 |
| Telvana | LjL: agreed | 02:29 |
| Telvana | It takes time, evolution of a virus, etc | 02:29 |
| LjL | lastshell, it's still pretty lethal, but yes | 02:29 |
| Telvana | But to say that COVID will never turn into the common cold is a fallacy | 02:29 |
| LjL | ublx, politicking and dissembling, aren't those things you often avoid if you have some integrity :P | 02:29 |
| Telvana | We just don't know *WHEN* it would do so | 02:30 |
| LjL | we also don't know *whether* it will | 02:30 |
| LjL | there are plenty of viruses that are still very lethal after millennia | 02:30 |
| LjL | going that way is one possible way that viruses can go | 02:30 |
| ublx | LjL: i mean, i think it's possible to wonder precisely which side of the coin best characterises fauci's behaviours: integrity shortfall, or politicking for the common good | 02:30 |
| LjL | there is a reason for it | 02:30 |
| LjL | but it's not the only way that viruses can go | 02:30 |
| lastshell | ok, but let's do math | 02:30 |
| Telvana | yes, but the trend of a coronavirus is to become less deadly over time, because of it's very nature | 02:30 |
| LjL | there are reasons for them to go other ways too, there is not generally only one way you can end up in a fitness local maximum | 02:30 |
| de-facto | well observing the viral fitness we have Wuhan-Hu-1 < D614G < Alpha < Delta < Omicron < .... and it seems also severity increases with more fit virus mutants (when comparing immuno-naive individuals) | 02:31 |
| LjL | Telvana, what's its nature that makes it do that? | 02:31 |
| lastshell | correct me if im wrong covid murder rate is 0.02% ? | 02:31 |
| LjL | lastshell, you're wrong | 02:31 |
| LjL | for corrections, check %cases on about any country with meaningful numbers of cases | 02:31 |
| ublx | Telvana: that's.. not necessarily realistic. it might peter out by natural selection (of sorts); ie, people die | 02:31 |
| LjL | ublx, that's actually one way that viruses become less lethal in a species that people often overlook | 02:32 |
| ublx | exactly | 02:32 |
| de-facto | for a immuno-naive 85 year old infection with SARS-CoV-2 *was* fatal for one of six, hence same as taking a six-shot revolver and playing russian roulette | 02:32 |
| LjL | and yet, they were all taught (i think) what happened to native americans | 02:32 |
| Telvana | ublx: that isn't the only way it could peter out, it could also be overtaken by a much more contagious, but less deadly variant | 02:32 |
| de-facto | now with the new variants it most likely is even more deadly, yet we have vaccinations hence the risk is significantly lowered, maybe by a factor of 5-10 | 02:32 |
| LjL | Telvana, our "common colds" and the flu were quite deadly to people who hadn't been exposed to them | 02:32 |
| LjL | which is perhaps good for people born after 2020 | 02:33 |
| Telvana | LjL: of course | 02:33 |
| LjL | but i'm selfish | 02:33 |
| Telvana | de-facto: evidence so far is pointing to Omicron being much more mild ... | 02:33 |
| de-facto | i have not seen such evidence yet | 02:33 |
| LjL | sigh | 02:33 |
| LjL | now it's "much" more mild | 02:34 |
| LjL | what will the meme have turned into tomorrow | 02:34 |
| lastshell | don't triger LjL with mild | 02:34 |
| ublx | Telvana: the propagation of a milder variant is a theoretical possibility but i think the everybody susceptible grows ill or dies is the more natural mode of petering out | 02:34 |
| LjL | "it actually makes you live longer"? | 02:34 |
| lastshell | we need more weeks sadly | 02:34 |
| LjL | i'm already triggered, this is bullshit and just repeating it doesn't make it true, but it does make omicron more dangerous the more people become magically convinced of it | 02:34 |
| lastshell | LjL sadly the media is spreading that info | 02:35 |
| LjL | i noticed | 02:35 |
| de-facto | omicron is more infectious, much more able to spread in a fully vaccinated or recovered population, even *if* it was more mild it most likely will cause more deaths because it spreads so much faster | 02:35 |
| de-facto | yet i dont believe it is more mild | 02:36 |
| ublx | something like ebola seems bad enough that 'humanity' will stomp all over it till it's controlled. but covid seems to be in this goldilocks zone (for the present civilisation) where it's just not bad enough to eradicate, except by natural selection (on humans) | 02:36 |
| lastshell | also the scary part at least in USA all omicron cases are with fully vaccinated people | 02:37 |
| LjL | ublx, ebola is not being stomped on *so* hard though, maybe when it leaves africa... | 02:38 |
| LjL | speaking things viruses do | 02:38 |
| de-facto | think about it: disease severity is a multiplicative factor, the fraction of unlucky people in all infected, lets assume it would be half as severe then we would require only double that many infected to reach the same number of deaths, BUT if it is twice as infectious it will reach that in just one doubling time... and 2-times after two doubling times and 4 times after 3 doubling times and 8 times.... | 02:39 |
| LjL | a doctor who caught Ebola in Africa, and survived it, started having eyesight problems a year or so later | 02:39 |
| ublx | you get the point though. some things are dire enough to arrest everyone's attention in an all consuming way. covid apparently isn't one of those things | 02:39 |
| LjL | they found his eye was full of live, replicating Ebola virus | 02:39 |
| LjL | the eye being an immune-privileged site somehow | 02:39 |
| LjL | and by the way, there's a second (at least to my knowledge) study out on SARS-COV-2 staying around in the gut of some people, and potentially causing disease there (such as cancer) | 02:40 |
| LjL | i'd rather not get that cutesy mild virus myself | 02:40 |
| de-facto | being more infectious is exponentially more dangerous than only causing a constant factor of different severity for same infectiousness | 02:40 |
| ublx | separate immune system. apparently if your body's general immune system and your eye's immune system meet, bad things happen | 02:40 |
| * LjL shudders | 02:40 | |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Emergex confirms its next generation T-Cell Priming COVID-19 vaccine candidate has the potential to be effective against all currently sequenced viral mutations → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rdnwy2/emergex_confirms_its_next_generation_tcell/ | 02:41 |
| antepost[m] | LjL: source? | 02:41 |
| de-facto | yeah we need more T-cell research | 02:41 |
| Telvana | LjL: nice way to take my words and twist them. It's becoming of you. By "much more mild" it was in comparison of Delta Vs. Omicron. I'm not some fucking whack job, this is the job I do daily, and get paid good money to do it. How about you quit assuming I'm some kind of conspiracy nut. | 02:43 |
| LjL | wow. | 02:43 |
| LjL | "much more mild" means what you said | 02:43 |
| lastshell | chillax | 02:43 |
| LjL | i'm sorry if your english is lacking | 02:43 |
| LjL | it is, at best, somewhat milder | 02:43 |
| Telvana | Considering English isn't my first language, that's possible. | 02:43 |
| de-facto | it does not really matter if its a bit milder or not (i dont think it is), the problem is that it spreads faster | 02:44 |
| ublx | which are you more concerned with: the petri dish aspect of exponential growth, or the overall burden of illness? | 02:45 |
| lastshell | I thing we have to accept the reality, that latter or sooner we are going to get infected | 02:45 |
| ublx | or both, i guess, but i'm wondering which is foremost in your mind | 02:45 |
| de-facto | i am worried about the number of people ending with progressions severe enough to require hospital care at the same time | 02:46 |
| LjL | antepost[m], https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w https://bmcgastroenterol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12876-021-01905-3 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34083386/ | 02:46 |
| Telvana | lastshell: that's where some people seem to drop the ball, they think they'll be able to wipe this out without the inevitable outcome that everyone will at some point be exposed to it. | 02:46 |
| Telvana | "Severe intestinal complications associated with COVID-19 are uncommon." | 02:48 |
| LjL | Telvana, your point in quoting that part? | 02:50 |
| lastshell | Nasal spray https://www.verywellhealth.com/nasal-sprays-serious-covid-19-protection-5206360 | 02:51 |
| de-facto | well we have not D514G in circulation anymore, we dont really see Alpha or Beta anymore, we were able to maintain containment measures almost capable of containing Delta, at some point we will enforce strict enough containment to prevent hospital overwhelming with Omicron, what will be the next imported mutant though? | 02:51 |
| de-facto | in my book we ended this several times already yet allowed new mutants to be imported that caused a new wave again and again | 02:52 |
| de-facto | why would it not continue if we continue to behave like this? | 02:52 |
| Telvana | Because we can't just shut-down. It's impossible. | 02:52 |
| de-facto | we already did make those variants extinct | 02:53 |
| de-facto | more or less | 02:53 |
| de-facto | so its possible | 02:54 |
| de-facto | all thats left is to prevent global spread to repeat again and again | 02:54 |
| Telvana | It's impossible to shut-down International travel ... | 02:54 |
| de-facto | hence the problem are the travelers without quarantine | 02:55 |
| de-facto | i dont see why that would be impossible | 02:55 |
| de-facto | what for would we need global travel without quarantine? | 02:55 |
| Telvana | So you say people will willingly travel if they have to stay in-country for 30 days? | 02:55 |
| Telvana | Absolutely won't happen, and you'll sink whatever economy you had | 02:55 |
| de-facto | what for would we need such traveling? | 02:56 |
| Telvana | Have you ever done international business? | 02:56 |
| de-facto | why would that not be possible without traveling? | 02:56 |
| Telvana | There are some professions that require human interaction, and working via Zoom just isn't going to cut it | 02:56 |
| de-facto | not very convincing | 02:57 |
| Telvana | I don't need to be convincing, it's the way of the world economy | 02:57 |
| Telvana | If I need to sign a document, I can't very well sign it on a Zoom call | 02:57 |
| de-facto | just because some business people are not willing to adapt to sane requirements and think its more convenient to travel there in person is not the same as "impossible" | 02:57 |
| de-facto | it must be enforced then | 02:57 |
| de-facto | manual signatures are silly anyhow | 02:58 |
| Telvana | Good luck with that, again, if you think that would work I've got a ocean front property for you in Montana | 02:58 |
| de-facto | drawing with a pen on a paper, thats not proving anything, everyone easily can draw whatever they like, its a silly tradition to sign documents via pen | 02:59 |
| de-facto | we already have digital signatures and smart contracs | 02:59 |
| de-facto | contracts | 02:59 |
| lastshell | de-facto is the same with fiat money | 02:59 |
| lastshell | but people will not change | 02:59 |
| Telvana | Good luck changing customs. | 02:59 |
| Telvana | It's not going to change because of a pandemic. | 02:59 |
| de-facto | yeah there we come closer to the truth, its traditions, customs, conveniences, habits and likings we are talking about here | 03:00 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: SARS-CoV-2 identified by transmission electron microscopy in lymphoproliferative and ischaemic intestinal lesions of COVID-19 patients with acute abdominal pain: two case reports ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/TEDW6SDU ) | 03:00 | |
| ublx | well covid dramatically accelerated change to remote styles of work and communication, but last sort of change can carry on for a long time before it's near comprehensive | 03:00 |
| lastshell | yeah thanks to remote job I was able to relocate to a cheaper state | 03:01 |
| lastshell | but companies adapt faster than goverment | 03:01 |
| ublx | s/last/that/ | 03:02 |
| de-facto | and soon we will have 100Mbit 30ms symmetrical satellite internet connections everywhere | 03:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Australia: +1742 cases (now 227385), +16 deaths (now 2100) since 23 hours ago — Lesotho: +610 cases (now 22448), +1 deaths (now 664), +7395 tests (now 269476) since 4 days ago | 03:04 |
| de-facto | this is the transition period to a new globalized sustainable way of human society and obviously we have not reached that yet (as observed from COVID spread) | 03:07 |
| antepost[m] | people who fly high will fall deep | 03:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The quest for the pancoronaavirus vaccine. It's likely within reach. bloomberg.com/news/features/… by @RobertLangreth @business We've been asking for this to be #1 priority for nearly a yearnature.com/articles/d4158… @nature @DennisRBurton @scrippsresearch [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1469486730340274178 | 03:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Boris Johnson pressed to say if he held parties in his official residence during lockdowns → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rdos4z/boris_johnson_pressed_to_say_if_he_held_parties/ | 03:19 |
| antepost[m] | bunga bunga parties | 03:20 |
| ublx | is seeing that clown's resignation too much to ask for christmas? | 03:24 |
| dTal | yes | 03:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Antigua and Barb.: +8 cases (now 4159) since 2 days ago — St. Kitts and Nevis: +3 cases (now 2795) since 2 days ago — Guinea-Bissau: +2 cases (now 6447), +541 tests (now 108549) since 2 days ago | 03:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Booster dose effective against Omicron, finds UK study → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/covid-vaccine-booster-dose-effective-against-omicron-uk-study-7667091/ | 04:46 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for China: +82 cases (now 112163) since 15 hours ago — Germany: +21152 cases (now 6.5 million) since 22 hours ago | 05:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India, U.S. account for a quarter of COVID-19 misinformation: study → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rdraqu/india_us_account_for_a_quarter_of_covid19/ | 05:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Covid kilos: Why now is the best time to shed them? → https://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/health/covid-kilos-best-time-shed-them-7665598/ | 05:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Zimbabwe: +6181 cases (now 161998), +6 deaths (now 4729), +14880 tests (now 1.7 million) since a day ago — Pakistan: +395 cases (now 1.3 million), +11 deaths (now 28823), +50859 tests (now 22.5 million) since a day ago — Belgium: +15245 cases (now 1.9 million), +41 deaths (now 27504), +101657 tests (now 25.8 million) since a day ago [... want %more?] | 06:04 |
| de-facto | .title https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-variants-area?tab=table&stackMode=absolute&time=2021-11-20..latest&country=~GBR | 06:09 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From ourworldindata.org: SARS-CoV-2 variants in analyzed sequences - Our World in Data | 06:09 |
| de-facto | .title https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-variants-bar?country=AUS~GBR~USA~BEL~ITA~FRA~ESP~DEU~BWA~ZAF~CAN | 06:10 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From ourworldindata.org: SARS-CoV-2 sequences by variant - Our World in Data | 06:10 |
| de-facto | shall we look at SAGE UK data for Omicron? | 06:19 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-98-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-december-2021/sage-98-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-december-2021 | 06:19 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.gov.uk: SAGE 98 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 7 December 2021 - GOV.UK | 06:19 |
| de-facto | "The doubling time for new Omicron infections is currently around 3 days in England and although some potential biases in the data lead to some uncertainty around this growth rate, it is unlikely to be any slower than a 5-day doubling time (high confidence). Omicron cases are making up an increasing proportion of SGTF cases, which will allow this estimate to be refined." | 06:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 840: COVID-19 clinical update #92 with Dr. Daniel Griffin: In COVID-19 clinical update #92, Dr. Griffin reviews emerging data on the Omicron variant, much information about monoclonal antibody treatment, including expansion of EUA for Lilly’s cocktail, FDA EUA for pre-exposure prophylaxis, [... want %more?] → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-840/ | 06:19 |
| de-facto | this means for a given doubling time T2 = Ts * Ln(2) / Ln(Rt) we would have Rt = 2 ^ (Ts / T2) = 2 ^ (4 / 3) ~ 2.5 hence cases N(t) = N(t0) * Rt ^ ((t - t0) / Ts) = N(t0) * 2.5 ^ ((t-t0) / 4) | 06:24 |
| de-facto | so how much time would a M-th of severity be worth in terms of hospitalizations? M = N(t) / N(t0) = 2.5 ^ ((t-t0) / 4) hence worth t - t0 = 4 Ln( M ) / Ln ( Rt ) | 06:30 |
| de-facto | So arbitrarily assuming Omicron would only be 10% as severe as Delta, how much time would it require to get M=10-fold as many Omicron cases N(t) compared to starting point N(t0)? it would be reached t - t0 = 4 Ln(10) / Ln(2.5) ~ 10 days later | 06:33 |
| de-facto | thats what i meant earlier with severity is not nearly as important as infectiousness | 06:33 |
| de-facto | if Omicron continues like it does right now in UK with Rt ~ 2.5 we would see 10-fold as many cases every 10 days | 06:35 |
| de-facto | that simply can not be allowed to happen | 06:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for England, United Kingdom: +48908 cases (now 9.1 million), +90 deaths (now 127154) since 23 hours ago — Florida, United States: +12984 cases (now 3.8 million), +19 deaths (now 62026) since 23 hours ago — Texas, United States: +15077 cases (now 4.4 million), +103 deaths (now 74555) since 23 hours ago [... want %more?] | 06:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Health officials urge people to get a booster vaccine: Cabinet minister Michael Gove says the UK faces a "deeply concerning situation" as Omicron cases increase. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59619224 | 06:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer): 1) First data from the UK seems to indicate that there is little protection from Omicron for people vaccinated twice, but the booster dose seems to be 75% effective against symptomatic disease. Early days, wide confidence intervals. This looks [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1469546076101296131 | 06:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer): 5) I think all of this confirms our assumptions. Omicron is infectious and has a strong immune phenotype. But our immune system is crafty and it seems boosted individuals (likely also convalescent vaccinated individuals) may have considerable - but [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1469548054177058821 | 07:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer): 6) ...from symptomatic disease (time frame unclear). I still speculate that convalescent and double vaccinated individuals may also have protection from severe disease. But we certainly need more data. Much more data. And I still think we need an [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1469548744970584064 | 07:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer): 4) If we think about Omicron, we need to think globally. Yes, boosters seem to protect and mRNA vaccines can be adapted to Omicron. But these are all luxuries that are not accessible to most people on this planet. More boosters in high income [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1469553254782713856 | 07:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Uzbekistan: +278 cases (now 195524), +4 deaths (now 1434) since 23 hours ago | 07:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer): 5)....other regions. Omicron specific mRNA vaccines that are produced for high income countries will also lead to reduced availability for LMICs. We need to think about how to solve this. We are not safe until all of us are safe - Omicron has [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1469554426427944963 | 07:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +58505 cases (now 10.8 million) since 14 hours ago — Netherlands: +52 cases (now 2.9 million), +3 deaths (now 20460) since 14 hours ago | 08:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from MedicineNet: (news): U.S. Surgery Rates Rebounded Quickly After Pandemic Shutdowns → http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp | 08:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Delta cases soar as scientists study Omicron → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/rduy8g/delta_cases_soar_as_scientists_study_omicron/ | 09:08 |
| Dredd | Seems I missed quite a roaring discussion in here earlier | 09:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Austrians refusing COVID vaccine will face up to $4,000 fines → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/rdv53v/austrians_refusing_covid_vaccine_will_face_up_to/ | 09:17 |
| Dredd | de-facto @de-facto:libera.chat: there's definitely psychological biases we have that lead to maladaptive behaviour in global pandemics. It was known before covid and sadly there not a lot we can do about it | 09:18 |
| Dredd | Practically speaking anyway | 09:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for West Bengal, India: +628 cases (now 1.6 million), +9 deaths (now 19584) since 23 hours ago — Odisha, India: +286 cases (now 1.1 million), +3 deaths (now 8431) since 23 hours ago — Sikkim, India: +21 cases (now 32417) since 23 hours ago — Meghalaya, India: +21 cases (now 84664) since 23 hours ago | 09:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): But _still_ only 17 people officially confirmed Omicron through WGS by NIPH/FHI although all still suspected to be O. Meanwhile, Omicron has spread from this event, incl to a ski resort from which SARS-CoV-2 (variant not known) now has spread to 21 regions [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1469587225105125379 | 09:45 |
| lastshell | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory | 09:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): In the small town of Sandefjord they’ve seen Omicron cases with ties to the Oslo party & now have 52 verified cases of O (tests taken this week, they may have used hospitals for sequencing instead of NIPH) and community spread; 55 new cases last 24 h [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1469590094487117824 | 09:54 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for El Salvador: +1 deaths (now 3793) since 21 hours ago | 10:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Scientists use ostrich cells to make glowing Covid detection masks | Coronavirus → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rdvqlk/scientists_use_ostrich_cells_to_make_glowing/ | 10:13 |
| Guest47 | I've been symptom free for two day but still showing positive on LFT | 10:14 |
| Guest47 | s/day/days | 10:14 |
| lastshell | Guest47 you mean you got covid ? | 10:16 |
| Guest47 | yep | 10:16 |
| Guest47 | well if i trust the LFT | 10:16 |
| lastshell | are you vaccinated ? | 10:17 |
| Guest47 | yes double vaxx | 10:17 |
| lastshell | your last shot was (how many weeks/months ago) ? | 10:18 |
| Guest47 | i was going to book my booster jab and then I had a bit of flu, didi the lateral test and tested positive. | 10:18 |
| Guest47 | last shot in june | 10:18 |
| lastshell | oh | 10:18 |
| lastshell | well now you have natural inmunity if test is correct | 10:18 |
| Guest47 | all the pople i know have tested negative. where the hell did i get it? | 10:19 |
| Guest47 | Unless it's a series of false positives, I didn't do the PCR test | 10:19 |
| lastshell | are you feeling fine ? | 10:19 |
| Guest47 | in hindsight bad decision. If I request a PCT test now and it's positive, the slef isolation will reset | 10:20 |
| Guest47 | lastshell yes no fever no headaches. I just want to go out for a walk goddamit | 10:20 |
| lastshell | maybe the virus was lingering in the air you walk by | 10:20 |
| Guest47 | i'm not sure about herd immunity if this strain is genetically different from the other ones | 10:21 |
| Guest47 | lastshell apart from being at home I just went to supermarkets (with mask) for very short periods and just walking. I don't socialize much | 10:23 |
| lastshell | Guest47 what kind of masks you used in the supermarkets ? | 10:24 |
| Guest47 | the standard ones | 10:24 |
| lastshell | I general use kn95 or n95 masks when I need to go to the supermarkets | 10:26 |
| Guest47 | Do I really need to do the pcr test? I've had 5 positive LFT in a row. | 10:28 |
| lastshell | I honestly don't know im the least qualified individual in this channel :( | 10:29 |
| Guest47 | So is our PM | 10:29 |
| lastshell | Boris has a nice hair style | 10:29 |
| lastshell | that is the only positive thing I can said about him | 10:29 |
| lastshell | but if 5 test of LFT tell you are positive it means you are I thing | 10:30 |
| Guest47 | I am sure I agree to either "hair" or "style" when it comes to bojo | 10:30 |
| lastshell | LFTs correctly ruled in infection in 99.5% of people with COVID-like symptoms, and 98.9% of those without them. | 10:30 |
| Guest47 | s/not | 10:30 |
| Guest47 | ak ok, where did you get that from | 10:31 |
| lastshell | https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/how-likely-positive-lateral-flow-test-covid-19-be-wrong | 10:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +53296 cases (now 6.5 million) since 18 hours ago | 10:32 |
| Guest47 | Ok let's say I keep on doing LFT for the next week and still shows positive. Is it possible? | 10:32 |
| lastshell | in general after 10 days but there are cases that can take weeks or months: https://wlos.com/news/news-13-investigates/how-long-does-it-take-to-test-negative-after-testing-positive-for-covid-19 | 10:35 |
| Guest47 | "What people need to know is that this virus tends to be infective for about eight days," (8 days since when?) | 10:37 |
| lastshell | I assume after infection but then again there are people with long covid | 10:38 |
| lastshell | so is hard to tell | 10:38 |
| Guest47 | is it worth doing the booster then or is it redundant? | 10:40 |
| lastshell | Getting COVID-19 offers some natural protection or immunity from reinfection with the COVID-19 virus. It’s estimated that infection with the virus that causes COVID-19 and vaccination both result in a low risk of another infection with a similar variant for at least 6 months. | 10:42 |
| lastshell | https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-if-already-had-covid < source | 10:42 |
| lastshell | I thing is something you need to consult your personal doctor | 10:42 |
| lastshell | I will try to go back to sleep is 2 am over here, good luck Guest47 | 10:45 |
| Guest47 | alrite nite nite. I guess yor not from the city that never sleeps... | 10:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: The Danish (state) Serum Institute is posting detailed data on the Omikron variant in the Danish population. Updated daily. 18 hospitalized so far. → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rdwiv6/the_danish_state_serum_institute_is_posting/ | 11:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Zambia: +235 cases (now 210959), +1 deaths (now 3669), +5446 tests (now 2.8 million) since 22 hours ago — UAE: +78 cases (now 742719), +242454 tests (now 104.4 million) since 22 hours ago — Nepal: +194 cases (now 823980), +1 deaths (now 11553), +5672 tests (now 4.7 million) since 23 hours ago | 11:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Alistair Haimes (@AlistairHaimes): Another view of the data; eyeballing it (right-most bar of top chart), the unvaccinated represent around 10% of the 18+ population but represent half of patients *critically* ill with covid.Those aren't the kind of odds you want to mess with: [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1469613804791214081 | 12:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belarus: +1837 cases (now 673269), +16 deaths (now 5261), +22582 tests (now 10.6 million) since 23 hours ago | 12:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): More confirmation that omicron us very infectious. High household transmission. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34729548/ → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1469639882335301637 | 13:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Vietnam: +16141 cases (now 1.4 million), +209 deaths (now 27611), +510740 vaccines (now 74.6 million), +460141 tests (now 71.2 million) since 23 hours ago — Laos: +1898 cases (now 88046), +5 deaths (now 236), +8074 tests (now 856830) since 23 hours ago — France: +55124 cases (now 8.3 million), +147 deaths (now 121303), +32953 vaccines (now 52.2 million) since 14 hours ago | 13:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Documenting COVID-19 is a repository of searchable documents related to the COVID-19 pandemic obtained through state open-records laws and the Freedom of Information Act. → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/rdyjqc/documenting_covid19_is_a_repository_of_searchable/ | 13:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Animal Reservoirs Of Covid-19 May Trigger New Rounds Of Human Disease → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/rdyod9/animal_reservoirs_of_covid19_may_trigger_new/ | 13:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Malta: +111 cases (now 40468) since a day ago | 13:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLA SALUTE - ORDINANZA 10 dicembre 2021: Ulteriori misure urgenti in materia di contenimento e gestionedell'emergenza epidemiologica da COVID-19 nelle Regioni Calabria eFriuli-Venezia Giulia. (21A07328) → http://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2021/12/11/21A07328/SG | 13:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): So many news outlets posting hysterical headlines and Tweets today. - Vaccines do not offer “zero protection” - We can expect vaccines and prior infection to provide a strong defence against severe disease (see South Africa) - Flippant [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1469647671405260800 | 13:48 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +177 cases (now 1.6 million), +5 deaths (now 28022), +35684 tests (now 11.1 million) since 22 hours ago | 14:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Omicron study suggests major wave in January: More stringent restrictions may be needed to prevent coronavirus from overwhelming hospitals, scientists say. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59621029 | 14:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Saudi Arabia: +53 cases (now 550189), +1 deaths (now 8852) since a day ago — Germany: +54531 cases (now 6.5 million) since 22 hours ago — United Kingdom: +58548 cases (now 10.8 million) since 21 hours ago | 14:47 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kenya: +202 cases (now 256134), +4 deaths (now 5346), +6312 tests (now 2.9 million) since 20 hours ago | 14:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Severe COVID could reduce male fertility - UGA Today → https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/re034j/severe_covid_could_reduce_male_fertility_uga_today/ | 15:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bolivia: +1878 cases (now 551516), +24 deaths (now 19305), +33219 tests (now 2.6 million) since 14 hours ago | 15:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: (((Howard Forman))) (@thehowie): Connecticut39% increase in hospitalizations over last week. Positive rate up to 6.1%Cases up 450% in one month5 mitigation measures widely available: Mask, Test, Vaccinate, Vaccinate, Vaccinate. 90+% reduction in death if you are vaccinate. Much more [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1469677069651091457 | 15:41 |
| minthos | Severe COVID could reduce male fertility <- I think we solved vaxx/mask hesitancy guys | 15:50 |
| xx | can't be fertile if you're dead | 15:55 |
| SpikevaxNerit | no/ | 15:59 |
| SpikevaxNerit | no? | 15:59 |
| SpikevaxNerit | if one is fast one can take sperm from a recently deceased corpse? | 15:59 |
| minthos | it's a pretty short window and I think you'll struggle to find a willing mother | 16:00 |
| SpikevaxNerit | maybe his girlfriend or wife would be willing? | 16:06 |
| xx | who'd be willing to be a single mother? | 16:08 |
| SpikevaxNerit | maybe | 16:08 |
| xx | and the kid would grow up without a father | 16:08 |
| xx | the kid would literally be half-dead its entire life | 16:09 |
| SpikevaxNerit | as half dead as any half-orphan | 16:09 |
| SpikevaxNerit | unless the mother finds another partner | 16:09 |
| xx | orphans were at least made from two living people. That kid would be made from 1 living person and 1 dead person. | 16:10 |
| xx | hence, half-dead | 16:10 |
| SpikevaxNerit | is that true? what if someone has his sperm frozen while still alive, but the sperm is used for fertilisation after the producer has died? | 16:10 |
| xx | right, the mother will have an easy job finding someone, "hey, when my husband died, I immedially harvested his sperm and impregnated myself, will you be my boyfriend?" | 16:11 |
| SpikevaxNerit | or girlfriend | 16:11 |
| xx | probably not, since there was already a husband | 16:11 |
| xx | but what do I know, these are modern times | 16:11 |
| SpikevaxNerit | mabye she's bi | 16:12 |
| xx | bipolar? Definitely. | 16:12 |
| SpikevaxNerit | mabye she's bisexual | 16:12 |
| xx | bi(polar|sexual|tch) | 16:12 |
| minthos | necrophiliac, bi and brain damaged from severe covid of the brain | 16:13 |
| xx | would still get a lot of tinder matches | 16:13 |
| SpikevaxNerit | xx: why "bitch"? | 16:13 |
| xx | SpikevaxNerit: just another word that starts with bi, I don't mean anything by it | 16:13 |
| xx | tinder must have made this pandemic worse for sure | 16:14 |
| xx | wonder if it would have been a good thing overall if all those apps that facilitate people meeting each other had been banned 2 years ago | 16:14 |
| SpikevaxNerit | binominal, bisons, bigamous, bigwig, bicyclist, bishop, birdhouse, bifurcation, birther, bittersweet, biracial, birdbrained, bionic, biathlethic, bickerer, bitingly, birdwatcher, bigot, birdie? | 16:15 |
| xx | I don't know many words | 16:15 |
| xx | I usually just point at things | 16:15 |
| minthos | bi- can be put in front of pretty much anything | 16:16 |
| xx | biminthos | 16:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Dr Francesca Brooks (@Frangipancesca): I can confirm! 31 and just managed to book the booster twitter.com/fact_covid/sta… → https://twitter.com/Frangipancesca/status/1469685961848143873 | 16:19 |
| SpikevaxNerit | bismuth | 16:19 |
| xx | bicorona | 16:21 |
| minthos | bimanual biweekly biturbo | 16:22 |
| minthos | bifornow time for my biutysleep | 16:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): If you read one thread on Omicron over the weekend, make it this one. Detailed but concise summary of situation in South Africa from an in-country expert. Everything from severity to kids to incidental positives in hospital patients twitter.com/shabirmadh/sta… → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469689224408481795 | 16:28 |
| xx | biuty is how I'll spell it from now on | 16:28 |
| xx | hmm, biuti | 16:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): And this point in particular is I think going to become a big discussion over the coming weeks. With the number of mild infections likely to rocket, is 10-day quarantine/isolation workable, esp for healthcare workers? twitter.com/shabirmadh/sta… → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469689226392391682 | 16:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Portugal: +5373 cases (now 1.2 million), +19 deaths (now 18645) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +4241 cases (now 1.8 million), +22 deaths (now 29958) since 21 hours ago | 16:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Which is why this projection for Omicron in the UK is particularly concerningby @mroliverbarnes @jburnmurdoch @JasmineCC_95 /2 pic.twitter.com/ZcUBMgc2Ti → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1469692545827426307 | 16:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): And the most likely explanation for the lesser severity of Omicron induced-illness that we've seen to date (not the virus, the immunity wall) /3 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1469697154545434625 | 16:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +17764 cases (now 2.9 million), +73 deaths (now 20530) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +58571 cases (now 10.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 17:29 |
| SpikevaxNerit | Why is the World Health Organisation critical of pandemic-related travel restrictions? | 17:43 |
| xx | SpikevaxNerit: WHO is a corrupt org anyway, they lost all credibility | 17:43 |
| xx | best to just ignore it and talk to your elected representatives about cutting funding for it | 17:44 |
| xx | we need a new world-wide organization dedicated towards human health | 17:44 |
| xx | not in any way related to UN, a fully independent org | 17:45 |
| ecks | i think one of their arguments is that travel restrictions incentivize countries to keep information about new variants hidden from the rest of the world | 17:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Moderna Provides Stronger, Durable Vaccine Efficacy Over 4 Months: New cohort data from VA medical centers provide more evidence of a correlate between antibody levels and vaccine effectiveness for mRNA vaccines. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/moderna-stronger-durable-vaccine-efficacy-4-months | 17:53 |
| de-facto | well thats a sound argument, hence we should have general mandatory quarantine for intercontinental travel regardless of sequencing | 18:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +21035 cases (now 5.2 million), +96 deaths (now 134765), +565077 tests (now 125.5 million) since a day ago | 18:06 |
| SpikevaxNerit | de-facto: I can see that as possible when continents are separated by an ocean, but not when they share a land border. | 18:09 |
| SpikevaxNerit | I don't see how one can realistically implement mandatory quarantines between Europe and Asia. | 18:09 |
| de-facto | that way publishing a problematic sequence from one of the compartmentalized cohorts could lead to increased international support and supply to fight it down at the origin before it would spread and be exponentially more challenging to make this particular mutant extinct | 18:09 |
| SpikevaxNerit | There was a Danish mink variant that is presumed extinct. | 18:10 |
| de-facto | yes they put a lot of effort into that and they succeeded | 18:10 |
| xx | SpikevaxNerit: there used to be this thing called Iron Curtain in europe | 18:12 |
| xx | it worked | 18:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: The significant immune escape of pseudotyped SARS-CoV-2 Variant Omicron → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/re3slf/the_significant_immune_escape_of_pseudotyped/ | 18:12 |
| de-facto | indeed Y453F is extinct https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/global?c=gt-S_453 | 18:13 |
| SpikevaxNerit | xx: It reduced but did not stop cross-border traffic, and that reduction had a very high cost. | 18:15 |
| SpikevaxNerit | xx: People did cross the border, and it needs only one to spread a virus. | 18:15 |
| xx | still severely limits it | 18:16 |
| xx | and people these days would likely be less keen on possibly losing their life for trying to cross | 18:16 |
| de-facto | there never will be 100% containment, but lowering the probability enough to prevent fast global spread (as we observe it right now) could help a lot | 18:16 |
| SpikevaxNerit | Contact reduction works well to flatten or smash a curve, but isolation is much harder. | 18:16 |
| de-facto | for example the vaccine manufacturers said they would need at least until March 2022 to update the s-protein signatures | 18:16 |
| de-facto | so only months after that we would have any hope to see a new vaccine variant available to the people, not to speak about getting it into every ones arms | 18:17 |
| lastshell | I know that people from Mexico crossing to USA they don't check if there are vaccinated even in legal crossing, they just ask if there are vaccinated but they don't check any proof | 18:17 |
| SpikevaxNerit | xx: It severely limits it only after such infrastructure is in place. People are trying quite hard to cross from Belarus into Poland. They might not if it was as deadly as the former Berlin Wall, but such infrastructure is very costly and I don't believe a shoot to kill measure would be supported or reasonable. | 18:17 |
| lastshell | in the south border | 18:17 |
| SpikevaxNerit | lastshell: being vaccinated isn't nearly enough to stop the spread of new variants | 18:17 |
| xx | SpikevaxNerit: but it would work | 18:17 |
| SpikevaxNerit | xx: Yes, physical barriers could work to reduce the spread of a variant; but at a very, very high cost. | 18:18 |
| lastshell | what about been vaccinated and had the booster SpikevaxNerit ? | 18:18 |
| xx | we're already spending money on all sorts of nonsense | 18:18 |
| xx | might as well spend it on something useful | 18:18 |
| SpikevaxNerit | Installing such barriers is not only a financial cost. | 18:18 |
| xx | in the older times they used to build literal hunger walls | 18:18 |
| SpikevaxNerit | It's also a societal and ecological cost. | 18:18 |
| de-facto | borders of compartments by similar control structure and legislation (such as EU) should be closed as much as possible crossing it only should be possible via quarantine | 18:19 |
| de-facto | this would help a lot and give us the required time advantage to come closer to having a vaccine ready in time of outbreak | 18:19 |
| lastshell | sadly quarantine in more cases is not supervised | 18:20 |
| de-facto | but it also would require forcing the manufacturers to begin developing updated antigenic signatures as soon as a mutant was declared variant of concern | 18:20 |
| de-facto | this time with Omicron that almost was the case, they are already working on it | 18:21 |
| de-facto | yet it still requires months and months until it will be available | 18:21 |
| xx | lastshell: I don't think any european country supervised a quarantine | 18:21 |
| de-facto | and somehow we would need to fill that timegap | 18:21 |
| SpikevaxNerit | Only a handful countries implement measures such as de-facto proposes. I don't think this will increase. | 18:21 |
| xx | everyone was like "yeah right of course I'll stay someplace for 10 days after entering your country. Promise." | 18:21 |
| de-facto | we would have had a very significant advantage from having delayed the omicron outbreak by a few months | 18:21 |
| xx | there possibly wouldn't even be an outbreak | 18:22 |
| lastshell | xx: exactly | 18:22 |
| xx | it would die off while waiting at the borders | 18:22 |
| SpikevaxNerit | It would need to be implemented in all European countries, not only in the EU. | 18:22 |
| de-facto | quarantine would have to be strictly controlled in off-site facilities | 18:22 |
| xx | EU barely exists in the face of covid, each country is doing its own thing | 18:22 |
| SpikevaxNerit | It would be useless for one European country to implement this on its own. | 18:23 |
| de-facto | people transitioning between compartments should not even have the opportunity to meet anyone in the target compartment in person until they cleared quarantine | 18:23 |
| lastshell | like australia and there own version of gulag | 18:23 |
| lastshell | but look all the push back national / international about what Australia is doing | 18:23 |
| SpikevaxNerit | Very early on they did a bit of that quarantine stuff. | 18:24 |
| de-facto | when they opened up again they imported the problem | 18:24 |
| SpikevaxNerit | The first flights repatriating Germans from Wuhan; the passengers had to spend two weeks in a facility at some military barracks. | 18:24 |
| SpikevaxNerit | But then the virus escaped anyway and there was community spread, so such measures were no longer useful. | 18:24 |
| de-facto | yeah and that should have been optimized in terms of increasing biosecurity | 18:25 |
| SpikevaxNerit | I don't really understand why someone travelling from Switzerland to Germany has to quarantine anyway, considering how much the virus is already spreading in Germany. | 18:25 |
| de-facto | Omicron now also reached community spread | 18:25 |
| SpikevaxNerit | (and that requirement doesn't apply to vaccinated) | 18:25 |
| SpikevaxNerit | Travelling from Thüringen is just as dangerous if not more dangerous. | 18:25 |
| de-facto | but thats a local population, inside a compartment that is under similar national management, hence capable (at least in theory) of coherent containment in contrast to international or even intercontinental collaboration in containment | 18:27 |
| SpikevaxNerit | Evidently society is not willing to attempt the type of containment you propose. | 18:27 |
| SpikevaxNerit | Almost no country does. | 18:28 |
| de-facto | yeah well maybe it requires a few progressively more aggressive mutants | 18:28 |
| SpikevaxNerit | I think not even then. | 18:28 |
| de-facto | well i guess we will see | 18:28 |
| SpikevaxNerit | I hope not. | 18:28 |
| SpikevaxNerit | I hope we will not see a few progressively more aggressive mutants. | 18:29 |
| de-facto | why would our insane fast global traveling not not continue to spread more aggressive mutants globally? i dont see a reason not to assume it would continue until we stop tolerating that | 18:29 |
| SpikevaxNerit | I'm not saying it won't. | 18:30 |
| SpikevaxNerit | If I spend two weeks crossing the Atlantic by boat, would that count as quarantine? :) | 18:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Jamaica: +73 cases (now 91725), +6 deaths (now 2424) since 23 hours ago | 18:31 |
| SpikevaxNerit | (I wonder how "must have recent negative PCR test" is implemented in this case? Can I stay in the harbour, then send a drone with my sample for the PCR test? ;-) | 18:31 |
| de-facto | only a mutant that is more fit under the conditions a population currently gives it will be a successful variant to spread globally, hence if increased fitness is associated with more aggressive disease progressions the mutants will be of progressive aggressiveness | 18:31 |
| de-facto | it would be the biggest gift humanity could make to itself to implement a proper and sane global biosecurity concept | 18:33 |
| xx | while we're at that, why not test travellers for *every* infectious disease, and make them pay for it? | 18:33 |
| de-facto | because new diseases are not necessarily known at time of outbreak | 18:34 |
| SpikevaxNerit | Too much money in tourist and travel industry for a proper and sane global biosecurity concept to be implemented long term. | 18:34 |
| xx | we'd at least get rid of old diseases | 18:34 |
| de-facto | but if they would cause problems in time of quarantine it would be known | 18:34 |
| de-facto | of course that would not prevent spread of viruses with long incubation time like HIV | 18:35 |
| SpikevaxNerit | How would you tell how long the quarantine should be for covering unknown diseases? | 18:35 |
| xx | 40 days used to work | 18:35 |
| de-facto | but yeah for those long incubation time diseases we probably should do those tests | 18:35 |
| de-facto | yeah "quarantine" means 40 days | 18:35 |
| SpikevaxNerit | HIV-positive people can't travel? | 18:35 |
| SpikevaxNerit | HIV infection is easy to avoid | 18:36 |
| xx | "wars are easy to avoid, the soldiers could just decide not to fight" | 18:36 |
| de-facto | no species ever had fast global travel abilities with transition times less than one incubation period for a fast spreading pathogen like respiratory diseases | 18:38 |
| de-facto | if there was an outbreak it would kill a local population possibly, but that does not really matter if the global population was not infected simultaneously | 18:39 |
| de-facto | honestly i am surprised the problem we are observing right now did not happen earlier | 18:40 |
| SpikevaxNerit | migratory birds? | 18:40 |
| de-facto | well they require many weeks to reach their destination | 18:40 |
| SpikevaxNerit | The problem did happen earlier, see "Spanish Flu" | 18:40 |
| SpikevaxNerit | Many weeks is slow enough to spread a virus globally. | 18:41 |
| SpikevaxNerit | It takes many weeks to reach the other end of the world, but not to reach the next subpopulation. | 18:41 |
| de-facto | so if they would be infected with something severe enough to affect their health, they would not be able to reach their destination because they probably would fall dead from the sky before having arrived | 18:41 |
| SpikevaxNerit | covid could spread globally if we had trains but not flights. | 18:41 |
| SpikevaxNerit | Yes, so the other problem is that the majority of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 do not get sick but still spread the virus. | 18:41 |
| de-facto | well but there are continents so birds would have to survive flying over oceans | 18:42 |
| SpikevaxNerit | That's why SARS-CoV-2 spreads globally but Ebola did not. | 18:42 |
| de-facto | they cant just pause and chill on the water | 18:42 |
| xx | we can just shoot the birds | 18:42 |
| de-facto | yes asymptomatic spread is a big problem with SARS-CoV-2, it gives it a major advantage with unaware spreaders | 18:43 |
| SpikevaxNerit | There were outbreaks on cruise ships too, so ship travel could and eventually would also have spread a virus between continents. | 18:43 |
| de-facto | depends on the travel time, the cohort size and the generation time for one infection | 18:43 |
| lastshell | is there any study about what makes the difference between asymptomatic vs not ? | 18:44 |
| de-facto | assuming the immune waning would be negligible compared to traveling time | 18:44 |
| lastshell | because will be a win win if everybody become asymptomatic | 18:44 |
| de-facto | afaik the viral load is at maximum one day before symptoms start, that is not uncommon with respiratory diseases | 18:45 |
| de-facto | similar is known from Influenza as far as i know | 18:45 |
| de-facto | and it also spreads very efficiently | 18:45 |
| de-facto | (even if not as efficiently as SARS-CoV-2 though) | 18:46 |
| lastshell | is there a way to control / manipulate the viral load ? | 18:47 |
| de-facto | initial infection dose may influence that possibly? not sure | 18:47 |
| lastshell | because the trick is to make the imnune system aware of the issue without hammering | 18:48 |
| de-facto | vaccination? | 18:48 |
| de-facto | "look for this antigen, please" | 18:48 |
| SpikevaxNerit | New German government minister has promised we will win the fight against the virus. | 18:48 |
| lastshell | well yeah but the current vaccines are not working ? | 18:48 |
| de-facto | they are not sniffed | 18:49 |
| SpikevaxNerit | The current vaccines are working. | 18:49 |
| de-facto | they seem to be quite good at avoiding severe progressions, hence body wide spread of the virus and lower respiratory tract | 18:49 |
| de-facto | but they are not so good for preventing initial infection beginning in the upper respiratory tract | 18:50 |
| lastshell | I see | 18:50 |
| SpikevaxNerit | If they mostly stop long covid and mostly stop overloading intensive care units, then that's good enough? | 18:50 |
| de-facto | and that is from where most contamination of susceptible originate | 18:50 |
| de-facto | from the early infection in the upper respiratory tract | 18:50 |
| lastshell | I think is good enough, but not enough to end the spread | 18:51 |
| de-facto | prior to people getting alarmed by developing symptoms | 18:51 |
| SpikevaxNerit | The spread will not end. Best case, it becomes endemic and we can live with it in some way. | 18:51 |
| de-facto | well we do have some variants of SARS-CoV-2 that became extinct, dont we? | 18:52 |
| de-facto | what ended their spread? | 18:52 |
| lastshell | a new aggresive variant | 18:52 |
| lastshell | delta is still the champion | 18:52 |
| lastshell | but will see with omicron this next weeks | 18:53 |
| de-facto | leading to more containment and immunization of high contact spreaders, hence creating an environment for the previous variant where it constantly would have to face Rt(variant) < 1 | 18:53 |
| de-facto | demonstrating its possible to force this down, if ONLY people would stick to the efforts long enough | 18:53 |
| SpikevaxNerit | possible in one country, perhaps | 18:54 |
| SpikevaxNerit | possible world wide, I don't think so | 18:54 |
| de-facto | hence compartments | 18:54 |
| de-facto | begin to see it now? | 18:54 |
| SpikevaxNerit | I can see your proposals in theory, but I don't see them being implemented. | 18:55 |
| lastshell | I thing omicron will determine what is the next action plan | 18:55 |
| de-facto | yes i dont see them implemented either, sadly, and that is the reason it will continue i think | 18:55 |
| de-facto | btw Arsanerit how is your Moderna dose? recently got the booster? | 18:56 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: Yesterday, yes. I feel much less than for my first and second dose (both Comirnaty/BioNTech). I wonder if that could mean I still had a decent dose of antibodies and the booster wasn't really needed yet? | 18:56 |
| Arsanerit | I wasn't intending on getting it yesterday, but I could get a short-notice appointment via my workplace. | 18:56 |
| de-facto | nice congratz | 18:57 |
| lastshell | not even arm pain Arsenerit ? | 18:57 |
| Arsanerit | I have the usual arm pain, just milder. I'm slightly tired. That's all. | 18:57 |
| de-facto | i desperately hope i can get one too, i have an appointment in 2nd of Feb 2022 (no earlier was available here) | 18:57 |
| de-facto | or i could travel over 100km for getting an appointment elsewhere | 18:58 |
| xx | if someone got definitely infected yesterday, will they still be infectious or positive on the 23rd? | 18:58 |
| xx | (23rd december) | 18:58 |
| de-facto | hmm hard to tell it depends on many things | 18:58 |
| de-facto | testing prior to participating risk situations may be helpful as it lowers the import probability to vulnerable cohorts | 18:59 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: hmm, considering they're currently vaccinating more than 1% of the population daily and 30% doesn't want a vaccine or isn't eligible, and they're already boostered 23%, it shouldn't take more than ~45 days to booster everyone who wants... | 18:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The accelerated progress in the science of Omicron over the past 2 weeks, representing remarkable collaboration between genomicists, virologists, immunologists, epidemiologists, and clinicians, throughout the world, is stunning. A preliminary timeline of some of [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1469726652867375105 | 18:59 |
| Arsanerit | My plan had been to wait until the vaccination centres are mostly empty again and then go. | 18:59 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, yeah my hope would be that Lauterbach somehow is able to organize more vaccination doses so even I could get one | 19:00 |
| Arsanerit | Is queueing for one without an appointment an option for you? | 19:00 |
| de-facto | btw Arsanerit very good choice, heterogeneous mRNA should give you the best result | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | Thanks. The choice wasn't mine though :) | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | They were putting everyone above 30 with Spikevax and everyone below 30 with Comirnaty. | 19:01 |
| de-facto | yes if there was that i would wait for hours for it, but here only appointments are offered | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | I'm somewhat puzzled by his promise to offer a booster to everyone before the end of the year, because many people got their 2nd dose only in August or September, so unless they're shortening the period between 2nd dose and booster it would seem to be too early? | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | There are stories of people who are sent home because they were some days short of 5 months / 6 months / 22 weeks or whatever time limit they apply. | 19:03 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/6h4Vr9z https://i.imgur.com/ljJwgeK.jpeg src: https://github.com/robert-koch-institut/COVID-19-Impfungen_in_Deutschland | 19:06 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Primers, Vaccinations, Boosters - Album on Imgur | 19:06 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, made a plot for primers, vaccinations and boosters in Germany | 19:06 |
| Arsanerit | boostering goes fast enough it seems | 19:07 |
| Arsanerit | could be faster, but can't complayn too much compared to neighbours | 19:07 |
| Arsanerit | nice plot | 19:08 |
| de-facto | notice the relation of vaccinations to registered infections | 19:08 |
| de-facto | its the same weekly incidence per 100k citizens | 19:09 |
| Arsanerit | yes | 19:09 |
| Arsanerit | although lacking a control it's hard to pinpoint for sure which one of the measures is responsible for the apparently decrease in infections | 19:09 |
| de-facto | we are boostering with a weekly incidence of 8k right now | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | I still want to know why Sweden is so different. | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | I linked an article in the taz the other day. | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | Do antibodies from infections last longer than antibodies from vaccination? Then why in our "Negativnachweis" does vaccination count longer than recovery? | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | bbl # cooking and dinner and such | 19:10 |
| de-facto | enjoy :) | 19:11 |
| de-facto | i think antibodies from infeciton possibly may last longer, but their level spreads over much larger range, some develop very good antibodies from recovery, others do not even seroconvert | 19:11 |
| de-facto | so it may be equivalent to vaccinating with a syringe that is full, half empty and completely empty sometimes | 19:12 |
| de-facto | i guess everybody would agree that doing vaccinations with unreliable dose volumes would not be acceptable | 19:12 |
| de-facto | yet there may be an advantage of recovery over vaccination: the mucus in the upper respiratory tract gets immunized and resident memory B/T-cells are going to stay there and potentially guard at the "entry" of contamination | 19:14 |
| Dredd | <Guest47> "Do I really need to do the pcr..." <- As I understand it a false negative is more likely than a false positive | 19:14 |
| Dredd | <Guest47> "Ok let's say I keep on doing LFT..." <- It could but you'll probably stop testing positive within 10 days of testing positive | 19:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +52660 cases (now 10.8 million), +132 deaths (now 146844) since 20 hours ago — Canada: +4051 cases (now 1.8 million) since 20 hours ago | 19:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: ‘Unbelievably selfish’ man takes 10 vaccine shots in one day → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/re5gte/unbelievably_selfish_man_takes_10_vaccine_shots/ | 19:36 |
| de-facto | a rough estimate (assuming roughly twice as many get infected compared to getting registered as positive case in the stats in Germany) would indicate that currently boostering would immunize 9-fold as many as those getting infected by SARS-CoV-2 | 19:45 |
| de-facto | unfortunately COVID occupied ICU beds, ventilated and deaths are still on the rise in Germany | 19:50 |
| de-facto | we just crossed over 1M active infections | 19:50 |
| de-facto | that would be one of 83, how crazy | 19:51 |
| de-facto | how many long-COVID cases will result from that? | 19:53 |
| de-facto | .cases Germany | 19:54 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: Germany has had 6.5 million confirmed cases (7.8% of all people) and 106190 deaths (1.6% of cases; 1 in 783 people) as of 20 minutes ago. 87.9 million tests were done (7.4% positive). 60.3 million were vaccinated (72.5%). +54531 cases since 22 hours ago. See https://corona.rki.de/ | 19:54 |
| de-facto | so if we had twice as many cases than registered in stats that would be 13M, if only one of 10 cases would result in long-COVID that would then be 1.3M people out of 83M hence one in 64 | 19:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): 732 confirmed cases of Omicron in the EU so far. These are only the detected cases, pretty much in all countries.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1469739820775837700 | 19:55 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/epidemiological-update-omicron-variant-concern-voc-data-11-december-2021 | 19:57 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.ecdc.europa.eu: Epidemiological update: Omicron variant of concern (VOC) – data as of 11 December 2021 (12:00) | 19:57 |
| de-facto | "Confirmed cases have been reported by 22 countries: Austria (17), Belgium (30), Croatia (3), Czechia (5), Cyprus (3), Denmark (195), Estonia (15), Finland (20), France (59), Germany (77), Greece (3), Iceland (20), Ireland (6), Italy (13), Latvia (5), Liechtenstein (1), the Netherlands (62), Norway (109), Portugal (49), Romania (3), Spain (14), and Sweden (23)" | 19:57 |
| de-facto | "Although cases reported initially were linked to travel, an increasing number of cases are now reported to be acquired within the EU/EEA, including as parts of clusters and outbreaks, with cases also being detected in representative surveillance systems." | 19:58 |
| de-facto | "A preliminary analysis of the data reported to The European Surveillance System (TESSy) shows that imported or travel-related cases account for 22 (13%) cases, while 121 (70%) of the cases reported to TESSy have been acquired locally, including 78 (45%) cases sampled as part of local outbreak investigations." | 19:58 |
| de-facto | damn. | 19:58 |
| de-facto | " overall total of 732 confirmed cases so far." | 19:59 |
| de-facto | this is very bad :( | 19:59 |
| LjL | i'm embarrassed by the implausibly low number of reported case in Italy and some other countries | 20:06 |
| LjL | maybe just maybe we could start sequencing and using the right PCR with the right SGTF | 20:06 |
| de-facto | i am worried because of the doubling times we see in UK that only are 3-5 days | 20:11 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-98-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-december-2021/sage-98-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-december-2021 | 20:12 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.gov.uk: SAGE 98 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 7 December 2021 - GOV.UK | 20:12 |
| de-facto | "The doubling time for new Omicron infections is currently around 3 days in England and although some potential biases in the data lead to some uncertainty around this growth rate, it is unlikely to be any slower than a 5-day doubling time (high confidence). Omicron cases are making up an increasing proportion of SGTF cases, which will allow this estimate to be refined" | 20:12 |
| de-facto | community spread with such low doubling times may indicate a real problem even if only a smaller part (compared to current VoCs) may be hospitalized | 20:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID-19: Omicron could cause between 25,000 and 75,000 deaths in England without tougher restrictions - experts | UK News → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/re65fn/covid19_omicron_could_cause_between_25000_and/ | 20:14 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/epidemiological-update-omicron-data-10-december | 20:21 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.ecdc.europa.eu: Epidemiological update: Omicron variant of concern (VOC) – data as of 10 December 2021 (12:00) | 20:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pfizer Course Has 23% Efficacy Vs. Omicron in S. African Study → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/re6e9n/pfizer_course_has_23_efficacy_vs_omicron_in_s/ | 20:23 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: SARS-CoV-2 Omicron has extensive but incomplete escape of Pfizer BNT162b2 elicited neutralization and requires ACE2 for infection ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/GR3BV5X8 ) | 20:25 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Updated table of Omicron neuts studies with @Pfizer results (which did the worst job in terms of reporting raw data). Strong discrepancy between studies with live vs pseudo. https://t.co/InQuWMAm4l ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/HQMUFNIN ) | 20:35 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: People are still asking questions that are answered in the chart, so I added more explicit labels to each cell in the chart. A "Pfizer vaccine" is two doses. So if you're wondering what happens after 3 doses for example, look up Pfizer primary and Pfizer boost. 2+1=3. https://t.co/8BTF3O3eU1 ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/VNU6CYWS ) | 20:35 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: That's for original strain; for Delta you need ~400. (Not clear for omicron, but expected to be higher than that.) So I circled all the numbers that are ≥400 or are statistically indistinguishable from 400 (close enough). Also translated vaccine names into American English https://t.co/DBIa9LGm8U ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/WYWQGUMZ ) | 20:35 | |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Algeria: +218 cases (now 212652), +5 deaths (now 6137) since 23 hours ago | 20:35 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: NEW thread: data show South Africa’s Omicron wave is resulting in less severe disease and death than past waves, though health officials say it’s too early to be sure, and severe outcomes will continue to climb. Story by me, @jsphctrl, @mroliverbarnes: https://ft.com/content/0ee745ce-ac55-46a9-9766-0b419821a79d https://t.co/6DClwASKVi ( | 20:40 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/GGQNWMIM ) | 20:40 | |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): We also don't have data yet for duration of the 3rd shot VE for either variant.Even the early drop in VE after boosters vs Delta (95%) compared with Omicron (75%) would be associated with a potential 5-fold increase in breakthrough infections → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1469752040444235776 | 20:42 |
| LjL | vaccine uptake in Portugal is incredible https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1469684079117352965/photo/1 | 20:42 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: B.1.1.529 escapes the majority of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies of diverse epitopes ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/C9B7JEFH ) | 20:45 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: @BrainstormBot/COVID Feed / Twitter ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/2LPTK66G ) | 20:50 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Bad news for many of the monoclonal antibodies; but a few are still standing! https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.07.470392v1.full.pdf https://t.co/Tcl7oEufAt ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/SMNB5KUB ) | 20:50 | |
| LjL | i'm sorry for this people, but this is the usual, incredibly myopic attitude: https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/re6e9n/pfizer_course_has_23_efficacy_vs_omicron_in_s/ho5ob5m/?context=3 | 20:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Dr Emma Hodcroft (@firefoxx66): There's no reason to think things in Switzerland will be different...Es gibt keinen Grund zu der Annahme, dass es in der Schweiz anders laufen wird...#Switzerland #Schweiz #Omicron Are we ready?Sind wir bereit? twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/s… → https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1469758190619348997 | 21:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity): With @Shirin_Strohm & @florian_krammer, we tested whether this rNA vaccine also rely on local IgA. In immunized mice, only nasal route induced IgA+ B-resident memory cells and protected against heterologous challenge in the absence of T cells. [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1469762200713809930 | 21:20 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Reduced Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant by Vaccine Sera and monoclonal antibodies ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/QWHAZHER ) | 21:20 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/ZMZXI2BV ) | 21:25 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/W4TV2MJ5 ) | 21:25 | |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity): These results indicate that nasal vaccines induce IgA and promote better cross-protective immunity against viral variants, and suggest its utility in combating COVID-19 variants of concern. A great write up by Bill Hathaway. (13/) [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1469762202437660676 | 21:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +108844 cases (now 8.3 million), +212 deaths (now 121368) since 22 hours ago — Maldives: +218 cases (now 93064), +4246 tests (now 1.8 million) since 9 hours ago | 21:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Mandatory Covid Vaccinations Find Low Support In Africa, Shows Study → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/re85rt/mandatory_covid_vaccinations_find_low_support_in/ | 21:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 variant (Omicron) evades neutralization by sera from vaccinated and convalescent individuals → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/re8enm/sarscov2_b11529_variant_omicron_evades/ | 21:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Namibia: +1041 cases (now 132271), +2 deaths (now 3577), +6447 tests (now 814176) since a day ago | 22:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Reduced neutralisation of SARS-COV-2 Omicron-B.1.1.529 variant by post-immunisation serum → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/re8evi/reduced_neutralisation_of_sarscov2_omicronb11529/ | 22:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Lizard of Science- NOW WITH ADDED SPIKEVAX (@sciliz): BRING ON THE INTRANASAL VACCINES FOR HIGH EXPOSURE WORKER ROUTINE BOOSTERS twitter.com/VirusesImmunit… → https://twitter.com/sciliz/status/1469776696370991107 | 22:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): New @MedCellPress Comparative effectiveness of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines over time, in both the Alpha and Delta US waves, vs symptomatic infections cell.com/med/fulltext/S…consistent 8-12 % points advantage for Moderna pic.twitter.com/IwHXFIKaEp → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1469777986509438977 | 22:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Alexander Schäfer ☣️ (@Immuno_Alex): Fascinating study in @SciImmunology demonstrating the benefits and superior protection of nasal compared to parenteral immunization. It all comes down to sIgA. Great work!Hopefully, we will see many vaccines designed like this in the future! [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Immuno_Alex/status/1469782035266945035 | 22:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Malawi: +83 cases (now 62230), +1117 tests (now 450666) since a day ago — India: +1782 cases (now 34.7 million) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +52735 cases (now 10.8 million) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +17770 cases (now 2.9 million) since 21 hours ago | 22:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Both mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 strongly protect against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. It is imperative to continue monitoring and comparing available vaccines over time and with respect to emerging variants to inform public and global health decisions. pic.twitter.com/VAxPjLNLsb → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1469784376481361929 | 22:44 |
| sdfgsdfg | <de-facto>unfortunately COVID occupied ICU beds, ventilated and deaths are still on the rise in Germany | 22:48 |
| sdfgsdfg | probably not for long | 22:48 |
| sdfgsdfg | if omicron's replacing delta I mean | 22:48 |
| sdfgsdfg | also, it's been a week or two with omi infections at least, how can we still not be certain of it's hospitalization rate... | 22:48 |
| Timvde | sdfgsdfg: I have seen no evidence that omicron is less dangerous | 22:51 |
| sdfgsdfg | this news from the last 10 hours: https://www.timesofisrael.com/south-african-doctors-see-early-signs-omicron-variant-is-milder-than-delta/ | 22:52 |
| sdfgsdfg | .title | 22:52 |
| Brainstorm | sdfgsdfg: From www.timesofisrael.com: South African doctors see early signs Omicron variant is milder than Delta | The Times of Israel | 22:52 |
| sdfgsdfg | every day they spam news like this almost since the omicron beginning | 22:52 |
| Timvde | sdfgsdfg: I believe there is a lot of immunity from prior infection in SA | 22:52 |
| Timvde | I mean, you could also say that delta is less dangerous than the original variant, because we definitely see a lot less hospitalisations and deaths here | 22:53 |
| sdfgsdfg | >> Only 30% of hospitalizations in recent weeks serious, about half the rate of previous waves; just 3% of patients die, unlike 20% in earlier outbreaks << | 22:53 |
| Timvde | ... because of the high vaccination rate | 22:53 |
| sdfgsdfg | these numbers are nuts ! was it 20% of patients who died in previous waves ? wtf | 22:53 |
| Timvde | sdfgsdfg: 20% of hospitalised patients, probably? | 22:53 |
| sdfgsdfg | that's still so high, wow | 22:53 |
| de-facto | how many confirmed infections do we have at which age group and how long would it usually take for an infection to end in hospital? | 22:54 |
| de-facto | afaik we start to see hospitalizations in SA but they are much younger there in median | 22:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Omicron cases rising in the UK; still small, but exponential growth, estimated at a rate of doubling 2.4 days, means it can take over in weeks.assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… pic.twitter.com/gQUgwJTJnz → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1469786519951007748 | 22:54 |
| de-facto | and if we know that Omicron has the capability to cause infected to require hospital support, would it really matter that much how severe infections are in comparison to previous variants? | 22:54 |
| de-facto | if increased transmissibility would really lead to 3-5 days doubling times we are talking about a week or such, then hospital beds would be as full as with previous variants and later much much more full | 22:54 |
| de-facto | half of the rate? | 22:54 |
| de-facto | if infectious with Omicron *double* each 3 days we would have won ... drumroll... 3 days | 22:54 |
| de-facto | its quite simple: if Omicron leads to hospitalizations its not a question of how much milder disease is but about how much more infectious Omicron really is | 22:55 |
| de-facto | the second is exponentially more important with time | 22:56 |
| de-facto | we should observe Rt in community spread for comparable populations very closely | 22:57 |
| de-facto | in SA and UK there probably were not much containment efforts in place though, so hopefully Omicron has much more doubling time than 3-5 days in countries like Germany were containment of Delta wave is in place | 22:58 |
| de-facto | yet i am curious about how all those mutations Omicron accumulated will change the spectrum of symptoms for COVID caused by Omicron | 23:01 |
| sdfgsdfg | https://www.infowars.com/posts/covid-19-vaccine-causes-aids-says-dr-zelenko/ | 23:02 |
| de-facto | infowars is unreliable | 23:02 |
| sdfgsdfg | lol, I was joking about a superstrain that would give people aids. Alex Jones has gone completely nuts | 23:02 |
| sdfgsdfg | I mean ok he already was, but this is too funny | 23:02 |
| de-facto | yeah Alex Jones is completely nuts, dont believe a word he tells | 23:03 |
| Timvde | de-facto: makes sense, it should be *significantly* less dangerous to make an actual difference if it's also more infectuous. | 23:03 |
| Timvde | And lol @ that title, I'm not even going to click that, that sounds insane | 23:04 |
| de-facto | and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Zelenko is a known quack it seems | 23:04 |
| de-facto | Timvde, well surely exponential growth will be self-limiting also with Omicron (even when it initially sees a largely Omicron-immuno-naive population), so the factor by which Omicron may have different severity to previous variants (more or less, we just dont really know yet) determines how the peak of infections will translate to hospitalization requirements | 23:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kuwait: +35 cases (now 413672), +17583 tests (now 5.5 million) since a day ago | 23:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): The 40x is starting to look like a mistake/outlier. Perhaps the titer of one of the two viruses (D614G "original" or Omicron) was a bit off. Pfizer had seen a 25x loss of neutralizing titers for Omicron vs reference strain, using [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1469798200299032579 | 23:40 |
| de-facto | well but that was with pseudovirus (the 25x) afaik, the SA study (40x) was with real SARS-CoV-2 | 23:42 |
| Timvde | From that thread: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/10/boosters-give-70percent-75percent-protection-against-mild-disease-from-omicron-uk-health-security-agency-says.html | 23:44 |
| de-facto | .title https://investors.biontech.de/events/event-details/press-conference-provide-update-omicron-variant | 23:47 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From investors.biontech.de: Press Conference to Provide an Update on Omicron Variant | BioNTech | 23:47 |
| de-facto | "Due to presence of B and T cell memory responses in vaccinated individuals, and as 80% of epitopes in the spike protein being recognized by CD8+ T cells are not affected by the mutations in the Omicron variant, two doses may still induce protection against severe disease" | 23:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Any tips or advice? How to avoid COVID besides the mask and social distancing? → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/reaol7/any_tips_or_advice_how_to_avoid_covid_besides_the/ | 23:59 |
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