| LjL | Hello CET, may 2023 bring you slightly less crappy things than the past couple | 00:05 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | other timezones may also apply | 00:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: A recent analysis shows vaccine mandates for NYC municipal employees minimized transmission among City workers. Reopening public schools was associated with a relative increase in COVID-19 cases among Department of Education employees. → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/1005uaf/a_recent_analysis_shows_vaccine_mandates_for_nyc/ | 00:27 |
| LjL | de-facto, https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1609320112582021120 some charts that might interest you here | 02:31 |
| de-facto | https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#daily | 02:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from ##covid-19 Zotero group: Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 XBB variant derived from recombination of two Omicron subvariants: Type Preprint Author Tomokazu Tamura Author Jumpei Ito Author Keiya Uriu Author Jiri Zahradnik Author Izumi Kida Author Hesham Nasser Author Maya Shofa Author Yoshitaka [... want %more?] → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/CT8HFDNV | 02:41 |
| de-facto | lets keep an eye on it, it may be an efficient variant, but that does not mean it will cause severe infections since T-cell epitopes are only small fragments hence most are preserved under the antigenic evasive drift from antibody selection | 02:41 |
| LjL | well hospitalization *has* been going up proportionally more than with previous variants in places with that variant | 02:42 |
| LjL | of course efficiency at transmission doesn't equate to severity, but that's not what anybody is saying | 02:42 |
| LjL | https://erictopol.substack.com/p/a-new-variant-alert | 02:43 |
| de-facto | its hard to tell if testing today is done by a similar fraction of infected as with previous variants, id assume today less infected get tested, if that ist the case hospitalizations per registered cases go up | 02:45 |
| LjL | let's hope it's just that | 02:47 |
| LjL | Italy has also been having more deaths (haven't looked at hospitalizations, tbh) despite fewer recorded cases, lately | 02:47 |
| de-facto | we will have to get used to that only the most immuno-evasive and most efficient (e.g. ACE-2 binding) variants will spread, but that does not necessarily mean that people get more sick from them, only that they spread very efficient in a population with pre-existing immunity | 02:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from ##covid-19 Zotero group: LjL: BREAKING🔔 The 15th preprint from G2P-Japan🇯🇵 is out @biorxivpreprint. We illuminated the virological characteristics of one of the latest SARS-CoV-2 lineages of concern, XBB, which was generated by recombination of two #Omicron subvariants. Please RT. 1/ [... want %more?] → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/KS9W3L3N | 02:51 |
| de-facto | the metric of interest is the trend in hospitalizations, people appearing in that metric dont do so by choice but by necessity | 02:51 |
| LjL | as opposed to deaths, which are largely by choice? | 02:54 |
| de-facto | nope thats an even harder metric but also one with more delay | 02:54 |
| de-facto | probably both are exponentially dependent on age with doubling ages of around 6 year or such | 02:56 |
| de-facto | so for comparison it should be incidence per age group with such metrics | 02:56 |
| de-facto | its really hard to tell since immuno-competence also is a factor that may be increasing with diversity in training variants, most immune systems already have seen two or more variants of SARS-CoV-2 | 02:59 |
| de-facto | lets just keep an eye on how this develops | 02:59 |
| LjL | but, while i agree cases are a hazy metric because of many reasons, if we want to see whether a variant is more virulent, we can't just look at "hospitalizations" or "deaths" | 03:01 |
| LjL | that's one variable when we necessarily need two | 03:02 |
| LjL | if deaths or hospitalizations go up, is it because there are more cases, or is it because the cases are more severe? | 03:02 |
| LjL | we need to know the actual amount of cases to know that | 03:02 |
| LjL | so while our "cases" metric that we get is bad, we still do need *a* "cases" metric | 03:02 |
| LjL | it would be good to do it on a random sample of people periodically, but we've said this for years and only the UK has done it for a while... | 03:03 |
| LjL | so i don't know how to obtain it | 03:03 |
| LjL | but i know that without it, hospitalizations and deaths don't say a whole lot. well, they do, but they don't characterize the circulating variant(s) | 03:03 |
| de-facto | yes i agree, yet ultimately any decision to implement controlling efforts will have to be justified by ensuring that medical system resources are available to all that require them | 03:23 |
| de-facto | indeed it would make case to have a random sampling survey representing each age group | 03:23 |
| de-facto | imho it should be done continuously | 03:23 |
| de-facto | employ enough citizens to represent each (age, special) group and buy snot from them for analysis of currently circulating respiratory diseases to have an accurate enough metric for the denominator for associated hospitalizations nominator in the fraction for probability for hospitalization | 03:28 |
| de-facto | it probably even would be economically profitable to have an early and accurate metric for severity and spread in order to minimize impact on everyday life of majorities | 03:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Montenegro: +73 cases since 2 days ago | 04:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Vancouver airport to test wastewater on flights from China for COVID-19 → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/100bvvy/vancouver_airport_to_test_wastewater_on_flights/ | 05:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: A promising new Covid pill shows key advantages over Paxlovid in trial - also less likely than Paxlovid to cause unexpected side effects due to reactions with other medications - VV116 → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/100c0u0/a_promising_new_covid_pill_shows_key_advantages/ | 05:44 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +1 cases since 23 hours ago | 05:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): Bay Area SARSCoV2 wastewater levels continue to drop. We might see another peak after the holidays though. pic.twitter.com/oKRdcIQwyc → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1609415647171350533 | 06:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): In poorly vaxxed areas, some of this effect might be from survivor bias (large % of susceptible died earlier). But in well mitigated and well vaxxed areas, this will be mostly due to vaccines keeping people alive, and Omicron infections boosting further → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1609420534319841281 | 06:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): 1 year ago I suggested 2022 would be the year COVID19 becomes "like the flu". I was right in one way and wrong in another.twitter.com/michaelzlin/st… → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1609423420005175298 | 06:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): I also suggested widespread immunity might keep viral prevalence low enough to maybe drop risk of COVID19 infection per year to flu-like levels. This has not turned out to be true, unfortunately. Rather we had two more massive waves, the BA.5 in [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1609426301919834112 | 06:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): Reduced viral prevalence didn't happen for 2 reasons: First there were enough people who didn't get BA.1 in 2021 who were then susceptible despite vaccination to BA.5, BQ1.1, or XBB in 2022. → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1609428472988065792 | 07:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Biobio, Chile: +528 cases, +1 deaths since 23 hours ago — Bashkortostan, Russia: +349 cases, +1 deaths since 23 hours ago — Maule, Chile: +308 cases, +2 deaths since 23 hours ago — OHiggins, Chile: +230 cases, +2 deaths since 23 hours ago | 07:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): 2nd, each Omicron wave infected so many that extremely immunoevasive variants could emerge. Some of these show as little neutralization from SARSCoV2 original vaccine as SARSCoV1. If we considered SARSCoV2 "novel" in 2019, well then we got similar [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1609430926496518144 | 07:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): Overall 2022 despite us getting to low IFR was a bad year. The price paid for the low IFR was too high; too many people didn't get their vaccines or boosters and died. And we're still generating new variants so I'm not too optimistic we'll see [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1609434778847318018 | 07:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): On the other hand, the nature of a SARSCoV2 infection has definitely changed for most people. Nearly all of us have been vaxxed or infected. Our immune systems have a head start now. Those previously infected likely have some mucosal immunity even [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1609436868227248129 | 07:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): (I'll just note that the press, including scientific press, quite happily broadcast predictions that SARSCoV2 was on its final evolutionary legs in 2020. Those predictions of course were completely wrong.) → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1609440615187755008 | 07:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): Thus continued vigilance is required, and the goodwill lost in various vaccine communication mistakes needs to be rebuilt in case a really bad variant arises. → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1609442497239080961 | 07:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | January 01, 2023: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/100ex24/daily_discussion_thread_january_01_2023/ | 09:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Taiwan: +25386 cases, +20 deaths, +26785 tests since a day ago | 09:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Longitudinal study of SARS-CoV-2 antibody response in a subset of United States blood donors → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/100ez7e/longitudinal_study_of_sarscov2_antibody_response/ | 09:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Australia and Canada announce COVID travel rules for arrivals from China | 01JAN23 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/100f4r8/australia_and_canada_announce_covid_travel_rules/ | 09:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Himachal Pradesh, India: +5 cases since a day ago | 10:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Clinical effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccine against Omicron infection in residents and staff of Long-Term Care Facilities: a prospective cohort study (VIVALDI) → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/100g93e/clinical_effectiveness_of_sarscov2_booster/ | 10:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 01JAN22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/100hejc/global_covid_cases_for_01jan22/ | 12:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Epidemiology of Candidemia Rates during COVID-19 and Comparison of Outcomes in Candidemia Between COVID-19 and Non-COVID-19 Patients → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/100hz8v/epidemiology_of_candidemia_rates_during_covid19/ | 12:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from Outbreak News Today: Chinese shingles vaccine receives clinical trial approval from Philippines FDA: NewsDesk @bactiman63 Chinese vaccine company, Jiangsu Recbio Technology Co., Ltd., announced receiving clinical trial approval for its novel [... want %more?] → http://outbreaknewstoday.com/chinese-shingles-vaccine-receives-clinical-trial-approval-from-philippines-fda-28577/ | 15:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Zambia: +204 cases since a day ago | 16:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Once-favored COVID drugs ineffective on Omicron may be putting millions at risk: While antiviral pills are plentiful and remain an option for some with weak immune systems, they won’t work for everyone — Pfizer’s Paxlovid interacts with many widely [... want %more?] → https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/01/omicron-covid-antibody-drugs-immunocompromised-00075285 | 17:13 |
| LjL | ↑ worst yet to come, with "emergency" funds dried up because there is no longer an "emergency", and nobody wanting to develop monoclonal antibodies because variants make them useless quickly :( | 17:14 |
| LjL | will we even continue getting shots at the ~required 4 month pace? doubtful | 17:15 |
| LjL | especially with the price hike | 17:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Safety and Effectiveness of SA58 Nasal Spray against COVID-19 Infection in Medical Personnel：An Open-label, Blank-controlled Study → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/100nrwy/safety_and_effectiveness_of_sa58_nasal_spray/ | 18:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronavirusUK: Sunak’s U-turn on China Covid tests is a political move, say scientists → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/100pn49/sunaks_uturn_on_china_covid_tests_is_a_political/ | 19:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Australia imposes mandatory Covid tests for travellers from China amid fears of diplomatic backlash → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/100r5tx/australia_imposes_mandatory_covid_tests_for/ | 21:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Post-Christmas COVID wave looms as some get infected for a fifth time → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/100s9hy/postchristmas_covid_wave_looms_as_some_get/ | 21:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Autopsies Show COVID-19 Virus in Brain and Elsewhere in Body → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/100tizy/autopsies_show_covid19_virus_in_brain_and/ | 22:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +600 cases, +2 deaths since 23 hours ago | 23:06 |
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